Originally Posted by champ76
dd, it's not a good sign for the incumbent to be polling at less than 50% six months before the election in the toss up states.
Turnout is the key. I'd be very surprised by an Obama win. It feels a lot like 1980.
It doesn't feel like 1980 to me. Yes, there are some parallels, but in 1980 things were perceived to be getting worse, while the perception today is that some elements of the economy are beginning to get better. While unemployment has remained high, gas prices have risen and wages haven't kept pace with prices, I don't believe that most voters are assigning as much of the blame to Obama as they are Congress and they don't seem to be as angry today as people did in 1980 IMHO.
Carter was also faced with a feeling among most of the electorate that he wasn't a strong leader on the heels of the debacles in Iran, in spite of the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt that he helped engineer. Obama, while he may have some detractors relating to his foreign policy, is not seen by most in the same light.
I imagine Obama will easily carry the traditionally Democratic states, which means Romney would have to win not only all of the traditionally Republican states, but also would have to take almost all of the swing states, like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Romney loses two of those three and it's a slam dunk re-election of Obama IMO.