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Old 10-05-2017, 07:57 AM   #1
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Official Week 5 Betting Thread

18-20 NFL YTD
27-16-1 CFB YTD

Last week was just ok for me. Lost a few units at college. Gained a few at NFL. Once in a decade beat on Washington +7 still stings but gotta move on.

Bucs/Patriots tonight.

Line is Pats -5.5...O/U is 55. Both teams failed to cover last week. Patriots suffered a bad beat at home to the Panthers. Bucs won a squeaker at home to the Giants.

Had Washington covered as a big dog on Monday, I'd really like the Pats as a rebound play tonight. Now, I'm not really sure. Gonna wait until game time for a decision. NE will always have the overwhelming amount of money on them so be wary.
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Old 10-05-2017, 01:28 PM   #2
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Probably sitting tonight out. Leaning bucs but not sure 4.5 is enough. Couple of thoughts

Pats covered like 13 out of 16 regular season games last year. I'm willing to bet they aren't 500 against the spread this year. Vegas will work their magic.

1 thing hurting the pats is this is a Thursday game. We all know Billy B and Co. Are the best in the business at game planning. The one game NE has covered (against us), they had 11 days to game plan. I don't think the o looks as good with only a short week to game plan.
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Old 10-05-2017, 01:48 PM   #3
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Eli Manning had plenty of time in the pocket vs the Bucs. I would think Brady would have all day.
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Old 10-05-2017, 01:52 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Surviving Saint View Post
Eli Manning had plenty of time in the pocket vs the Bucs. I would think Brady would have all day.
I'm leaning that way. I think the Pats typically rebound in this situation and the Bucs are coming off a win and may let down.

The only thing that worries me is how much the public always pile on the Patriots. They are currently 1-3 ATS.
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Old 10-05-2017, 02:03 PM   #5
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I'm leaning that way. I think the Pats typically rebound in this situation and the Bucs are coming off a win and may let down.

The only thing that worries me is how much the public always pile on the Patriots. They are currently 1-3 ATS.
Yea I know. That defense isnt very good and the Pats have to travel to the Jets next week.
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Old 10-05-2017, 03:11 PM   #6
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Public hammering Ne yet the line is moving in the other direction. Reverse line movement is a dangerous thing
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Old 10-05-2017, 03:14 PM   #7
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Public hammering Ne yet the line is moving in the other direction. Reverse line movement is a dangerous thing
Clarify for me, does that mean the lines lean to the Bucs may win this? Or at least cover?
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Old 10-05-2017, 03:18 PM   #8
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Clarify for me, does that mean the lines lean to the Bucs may win this? Or at least cover?

I'm not at all saying this is what I'd take, but a lot of times when you get reverse line movement the dog wins straight up. I think it's better to watch this line up until not too long before kickoff. If it keeps moving in the Bucs favor than the heavy hitters are on TB.
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Old 10-05-2017, 07:18 PM   #9
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Tampa +4
Tampa 1st half +2.5
Under 55.5

All small. Good luck.
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Old 10-05-2017, 07:21 PM   #10
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No play for me. Good luck.
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Old 10-05-2017, 10:57 PM   #11
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Well the under hit lol. 1-2

Ill get my record up in a bit. I went strictly off the line movement. Bad plays.
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Old 10-06-2017, 12:51 AM   #12
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Don't love many games like I did last week. Not sure if I'll do much else..

Packers +2
Chiefs -1
Vikings -3
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Old 10-06-2017, 05:58 PM   #13
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Uconn +16

May play the late game depending on how this one goes.
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Old 10-06-2017, 08:00 PM   #14
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CFB
BYU +8.5
Let's start the week off right.
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Old 10-06-2017, 08:51 PM   #15
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Uconn held up as long as they could. They are done.

BYU +8 late. Serious reverse line movement going on. If both high-public favorites cover tonight, I'll be surprised.
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