Links to other Tropical Weather sites Hurricane Alley (includes the NHC and Hurricane Alley Projected Tracks with forecast wind speeds)
[note: the maps at HA have become too large to post here, so I'm just providing the link] BearPaws Weather Palm Harbor Forecast Center
Satellite Products
Link to NOAA page with numerous animated images: Isaac Hurricane Sectors
Link to College of DuPage Visual Satellite Imagery map (click on any location to see visual, infrared and water vapor images - the drop down menu under each option will allow you to select an animated loop)
__________________ Kellye in Houston "For me, the issue of player health & safety is personal. For the league and the Commissioner, it's about perception & liability." ~ Scott Fujita
I'm very concerned with this storm. Told a friend of mine last night I have a bad feeling this is going to be a northern gulf storm. Long way out and a lot can happen between now and then but it doesn't make me feel any better.
Also concerned we could see the Atlantic get really active over the next 3 weeks. When the Bermuda high bridges with a second area of high pressure over the central/East US it makes for ideal conditions with no westerly sheer combined with a steady of flow of waves off the African coast. Combine that with water temps in late August into early September and it could get ugly.
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A: "Who doesn't watch Drew Brees break records? I watch football. You can't watch football without watching the New Orleans Saints."
Akiem Hicks
My prediction is for this ine to make landfall just west of Morgan City as a cat 1.
you got a dart and map of Gulf Coast, dont cha?
__________________
1987 Shelby Metcalf, basketball coach at Texas A&M, recounting what he told a player who received four F's and one D: "Son, looks to me like you're spending too much time on one subject."
Location: Houston TX, via Parsippany, NJ and New Orleans (Algiers), LA
Age: 49
Posts: 15,877
Thread Starter
Quote:
Originally Posted by gboudx
My wishcast is that it becomes a fish storm.
My prediction is that I'll wait for better consensus and something to actually develop with a defined LLC to track.
Agreed. And today's models, compared with yesterday's, have it turning NW a lot earlier...hopefully that trend continues and it never even enters the Gulf.
__________________ Kellye in Houston "For me, the issue of player health & safety is personal. For the league and the Commissioner, it's about perception & liability." ~ Scott Fujita
Will 94L hit the U.S.?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.
Certianly something to watch, but doesn't look immediately threatening to us in NOLA, despite the westward model shifts.
Certianly something to watch, but doesn't look immediately threatening to us in NOLA, despite the westward model shifts.
I usually like Masters' thoughts on tropical systems but not so much on this one. Just because two storms went towards the Yucatan a month ago doesn't mean the next one will. I do agree that a high pressure from a drought over the midwest and plain states causes storms to go down into Mexico but that giant ridge that was setup over the midwest is long gone. Yes, there may be a drought still going but the low temp tonight in Des Moine is 55 degrees, a more than 20 degree difference from a few weeks ago.
So he wrongly explains why it wont hit the gulf coast and then predicts it will either hit N. Carolina or the Yucatan or Mexico south of the Texas border or the Florida panhandle and also mentions the past three model runs all having it hit south Florida.
Sounds like he decided to get drunk and type at 4am or something.
94L became TD9 @ 5AM this morning. Should become TS Isaac later today. It's early, but I'm not liking the model runs for the S. Florida area at this point. I'm a bit concerned because some models now indicate a stronger storm, possibly upwards of a 3. Just depends on how it interacts with the islands 1st.
Quote:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012
CORRECTED FORMATTING OF WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY SECTION
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 51.8W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Tues American model run below. Euro has it slightly west just off the Tampa coast.
ouch...my buddy and his wife leave for the Bahamas on Thursday. ( staying til Tues )
Told him ill be looking for his "iReport" on CNN from Grand Bahama.
__________________
1987 Shelby Metcalf, basketball coach at Texas A&M, recounting what he told a player who received four F's and one D: "Son, looks to me like you're spending too much time on one subject."
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