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Old 08-25-2012, 11:02 PM   #323
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geez this run has it drifting all the way west to Lake Charles between hrs 75-96
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Old 08-25-2012, 11:04 PM   #324
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saintsfan22 View Post
if the gfs output happens I would think cooler water would come up at some point but looking at this run its keeps it pretty strong as it drifts west
The models rarely show storms weakening just before landfall but so many do. I would think the slightly cooler water (but 85 is not exactly cold), then drier continental air mixing in as well as a slight increase in shear near land that models don't pick up will likely help to weaken it pretty quickly. Only problem is the weakening doesn't start until right off the coast and even then it doesn't really slow down storm surge or limit rainfall since it would be going so slow.
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Old 08-25-2012, 11:05 PM   #325
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saintsfan22 View Post
if the gfs output happens I would think cooler water would come up at some point but looking at this run its keeps it pretty strong as it drifts west
This run could be used in emergency planning as a worse-case type scenario. Slowing creeping in from the SE, pushing water into the lake and the Eastern shores of Plaquemines, Orleans and St Bernard. Then drifting westward and eventually piling water into Barataria Bay and inlets on the Westbank. It's looks like Juan with its meandering along the coast.
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Old 08-25-2012, 11:06 PM   #326
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Old 08-25-2012, 11:09 PM   #327
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gboudx View Post
This run could be used in emergency planning as a worse-case type scenario. Slowing creeping in from the SE, pushing water into the lake and the Eastern shores of Plaquemines, Orleans and St Bernard. Then drifting westward and eventually piling water into Barataria Bay and inlets on the Westbank. It's looks like Juan with its meandering along the coast.
ok,now this is what I'm wondering any idea on what the GFS is picking up on that outputs it to drift as much as it has it in this run?
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Old 08-25-2012, 11:09 PM   #328
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The models have been trending west since last night this trend may not be over. Shoot, they might trend all th way to Port Arthur or Galveston. There was a model run last week which showed a landfall near Galveston.
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Old 08-25-2012, 11:10 PM   #329
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Hard to say, the models are more inconsistent now than they were a few days ago. All the models have been pretty aggressive with intensity so I'd expect no less than a cat 1 but more likely a cat 2-3.

The main factor will be a ridge setting up that is helping to influence Isaac to the west. That ridge wasn't even showing up a couple days ago so it is always possible it doesn't build in as strong allowing a weakness for Isaac to track farther north or the ridge could build in faster helping it to stall before hitting La and eventually steering it west towards Texas. There is also a small trough that was going to help pull it north and even NE but that appears to be less of a factor each run.
Thank you. That was a great explanation and in terms that I can understand.
It's really strange how earlier it showed Destin and now we can see it possibly going all the way to SW La.
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Old 08-25-2012, 11:12 PM   #330
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ok,now this is what I'm wondering any idea on what the GFS is picking up on that outputs it to drift as much as it has it in this run?
Bclemms mentioned it a few posts before.
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Old 08-25-2012, 11:12 PM   #331
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Any idea when the projections will become more reliable?
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Old 08-25-2012, 11:13 PM   #332
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Any idea when the projections will become more reliable?
There isn't a model for that.
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Old 08-25-2012, 11:14 PM   #333
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Bclemms mentioned it a few posts before.
ahh,missed that post thanks
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Old 08-25-2012, 11:15 PM   #334
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There isn't a model for that.
Well, damn. I hope someone tells Galveston if it heads their way. They have a history of not being aware.
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Old 08-25-2012, 11:15 PM   #335
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Old 08-25-2012, 11:17 PM   #336
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ok next question when does the new euro come out? I'll be anxious to see if it too is picking up on the western trend.
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