***TROPICAL UPDATE*** Isaac discussion/damage to the wetlands

[bclemms]

Originally Posted by Saint_Kyle

Just seeking some clarification here..


If nearly all of the spaghetti plots have the storm coming this direction, why does the official track have the storm still going to the Pensacola region? Do the spaghetti plots not influence the "official projected path?"


Just curious why there is such a large discrepancy between the two.

The NHC doesn't change their path as dramatic or as often as the models shift. If the next Euro run shows La coast they will likely shift it to the Ms Gulf Coast. If the following runs continue to show La coast they will shift it to the La coast. They feel like if they shifted the projected path as much as the models tend to shift it would cause more confusion and panic.

I've thought they should do away with the middle line for years and have several cones with different colors high, medium and low risk of path with anyone in the "high risk" area being equally capable of seeing a landfall.

[bclemms]

Another thing to consider is if the GFS is right and a high pressure system develops over the East coast and bridges with the Bermuda high then the subtropical jet will force invest 97L to also head towards the gulf.

Also, the HWRF is finished running and it is also showing a SE La landfall at 938mb.

[Saintsfan22]

New Euro has shifted west now making landfall on the AL/FL Border

[P-town balla]

Look for the cone to shift at the 5 am advisory.

[Sabine]

I been waiting (impatiently) for some clarity on the path of this storm so I'd know whether or not to go all mama on my son who lives in New Orleans.

It didn't even occur to me that this storm may be a threat to my daughters who'll be celebrating their birthdays this coming week on what Ike left of the Bolivar peninsula.

[Saintsfan22]

5 am advisory now out,nola and most of SE LA is now back in the cone of error.Also a Hurricane Watch has been issued from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Indian Pass Florida NOT Including Metro NOLA yet.

[Bill]

What makes Isaac even more worthy of our attention is that the NHC is forecasting this storm to slow down its forward speed dramatically as it approaches the northern gulf coast. The forecast 5 mph forward speed is pretty close to a stationary situation for such a large storm. We all need it to move out quickly!

Scenarios for significant flooding increase as the counter-clockwise rotation will almost certainly be an issue for areas east of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Obviously the longer the storm remains in the position shown on these new model runs, the more time it has to increase its strength.. which increases its ability to pile up water along the parishes east of the river to Lake Pontchartrain.

[primadox]

My sister works as a wetlands biologist, and is supposed to be heading out to Venice this week...I'm thinking, not.

[nolaswede]

Seems like NHC didn't make any changes to the 7am update(from the 4am update). Although some people have mentioned earlier that they are not likely to make drastic changes.

Anyone plan on leaving NOLA today if the forecast doesn't change? Trying to figure out what to do. First time owning a house and pretty sure the neighbors have a generator. What do you plan to do?

[st. dave]

Track has shifted to the west. New Orleans back in the cone of uncertainty. Hurricane watch now extended westward to the mouth of the Mississippi River, but not including New Orleans.

Next advisory at 10:00 am (Central time). More definitive advisory would be at 2:00 pm (Central time).

This is utterly frustrating!

st. dave

[BuffaloSaint]

Originally Posted by st. dave

This is utterly frustrating!

st. dave

I second this.

[bigdog]

I live in Key West. It's just starting to pick up now. We don't expect too much bad weather here.

[Flipx99]

Good Morning America just ran though this without a lot of hand wringing and rather easily declared that landfall will be between the panhandle of FL and Mobile Bay. The time will be 2am Wednesday.


Of course, they did not have a whole lot of time to discuss the details as they had to move on to a story about a woman and her guardian angel.

[mb504]

Originally Posted by nolaswede

Anyone plan on leaving NOLA today if the forecast doesn't change? Trying to figure out what to do. First time owning a house and pretty sure the neighbors have a generator. What do you plan to do?

My personal plan has always been to stay for anything below a Cat 3. This doesn't look like it will be that. And, frankly, even if it becomes one, if it makes landfall tomorrow afternoon it would probably be too late at this point for evacuation to be safer and more sensible than simply hunkering down. The risk of something possibly happening at home is less than the risk of evacuation absolutely being a long, horrible, expensive and probably futile process this late in the game. The only way leaving could make sense is if you did ASAP, and there's just too much uncertainty to me to want to do that. Evacuating this afternoon or early this evening would be slow and painful.

[st. dave]

All the spaghetti models now have tracked west indicating landfall in Louisiana/western Mississippi.

Just hope the National Weather Center doesn't change it's track as well.

Ugh!!!

st. dave