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Old 06-06-2012, 11:06 PM   #1
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21 Signs That This Could Be A Long, Hot, Crazy Summer For The Global Financial System

21 Signs That This Could Be A Long, Hot, Crazy Summer For The Global Financial System

Quote:
Global Financial System
June 5, 2012
Print Version
Michael Snyder
The Economic Collapse

The summer of 2012 is shaping up to be very similar to the summer of 2008. Things look incredibly bleak for the global economy right now. Economic activity and lending are slowing down all over the planet, and fear is starting to paralyze the entire global financial system. Things did not look this bad back in the summer of 2011 and things certainly did not look this bad back in the summer of 2010. It is almost as if a “perfect storm” is brewing. Today, the global financial system is a finely balanced pyramid of risk, debt and leverage. Such a system requires a high degree of confidence and stability. But when confidence disappears and fear and panic take over, the house of cards can literally start collapsing at any time. Right now we are watching a slow-motion train wreck unfold and nobody seems to know how to stop it. Unless some kind of a miracle happens, things are going to look much different when we reach the start of 2013 than they do today.

The following are 21 signs that this could be a long, hot, crazy summer for the global financial system….

#1 There are rumors that major financial institutions are cancelling employee vacations in anticipation of a major financial crisis this summer. The following are a couple of tweets quoted in a recent article by Kenneth Schortgen Jr….

Todd Harrison tweet: Hearing (not confirmed) @PIMCO asked employees to cancel vacations to have “all hands on deck” for a Lehman-type tail event. Confirm?

Todd M. Schoenberger tweet: @todd_harrison @pimco I heard the same thing, but I also heard the same for “some” at JPM. Heard it today at a hedge fund luncheon.

As Schortgen points out, these are not just your average Twitter users….

Todd Harrison is the CEO of the award winning internet media company Minyanville, while Todd Shoenberger is a managing principal at the Blackbay Group, and an adjunct professor of Finance at Cecil College.

#2 The Bank for International Settlements is warning that global lending is contracting at the fastest pace since the financial crisis of 2008.

#3 Unemployment in the eurozone has hit a brand new all-time record high.

#4 The government of Portugal has just announced that it will be bailing out three major banks.

#5 Many U.S. banking stocks are being hit extremely hard. For example, Morgan Stanley stock has declined by 40 percent over the past four months.

#6 Yields on Spanish debt and yields on Italian debt have been absolutely soaring.

#7 10 year U.S. Treasury notes hit a record low on Friday because investors are scared and they are looking for safety. The following is from a recent USA Today article….

“Treasuries are at 1.46 because people are freaking out,” says Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics.

#8 New orders for factory goods in the United States have declined three times in the last four months. That is a sign that the “economic recovery” in the U.S. has clearly stalled.

#9 U.S. job growth in May was well below expectations and the unemployment rate has increased to 8.2 percent.

#10 Economies all over the developed world are seriously slowing down right now. The following is from a recent articleby Ambrose Evans-Pritchard….

Brazil wilted in the first quarter. India grew at the slowest pace in nine years. China’s HSBC manufacturing index fell further into contraction in May, with new orders dropping sharply and inventories rising.

#11 Stocks in Japan hit a 28 year low on Monday.

#12 Over the past five years, the stock markets of Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Cyprus have all fallen by more than 50 percent. Will we soon see similar results all over the rest of Europe?

#13 The Greek economy is literally shutting down. Just check out the chaos that unpaid bills are already causing….

And unpaid bills are now threatening Greece’s electricity supply. State-owned Electricity Market Operator (LAGIE), a clearing house for power transactions, hasn’t paid independent power producers for electricity it bought from them. They, in turn, haven’t paid their natural gas supplier, Public Gas Corporation (Depa), which now doesn’t have the money to pay its supplier. Payment is due on June 22. Alas, its supplier is Gazprom in Russia, and they insist on getting paid. If not, they will shut the valve, and Depa won’t get the gas to supply the independent producers, which will have to take their power plants off line, removing about a third of the country’s electricity production.
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Old 06-06-2012, 11:12 PM   #2
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Looks like a good time to get out of the market, and invest later on.

Catching a falling knife.
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Old 06-07-2012, 11:38 AM   #3
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Just in time for the election.
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Old 06-07-2012, 12:40 PM   #4
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And yet, just yesterday, the Dow rises 284 points and the headling was " Dow hits highest gain of year on better Global outlook".

haha. wth is going on these days?

ooops nm....article dated 6/5.

duh
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Old 06-07-2012, 01:21 PM   #5
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Let's all play a game. It's called incompetent hedge-fund Chief Executive

Step one: You gamble on food prices, knowing people have to eat so there's always good money to be made if you can push up prices and increase the profits and net-worth of the producers (in whom you recently bought shares).

Outcome: Give yourself a $4 million bonus.

Step two: Invest in cocoa, maize and rice. One hundred thousand people in Africa go hungry - slipping below the minimum nutrition standard. Infant mortality rises by 30 per cent in sub-Saharan countries.

Outcome: You lose $500,000 paying a PR consultancy to bury the news. You lose another $1million sponsoring the Zambian Olympic team to rebrand yourself as a supporter of African people.

Step three: You gamble on the property boom. House prices rise. Your company makes a few billion. Your banking partners lend more and more money over longer and longer periods to those desperate to get on the property ladder. You make another billion.

Outcome: Give yourself a $25 million bonus.

Step four: Property bubble explodes, 2 million people get behind on their mortgages. You bring in the receivers and bailiffs and try to squeeze every last penny out of the soon to be homeless before they go bankrupt.

Outcome: Win some, lose some. Celebrate getting out of the property boom with your shirt still on. Snort a lot of coke and cheat on your pregnant wife with a couple of $2,000-an-hour Albanian sex slaves (sorry call girls).

Step five: Markets collapse. Your company loses a billion dollars. Everyone realises you know nothing about finance and the only thing that made you wealthy is your insatiable greed and recklessness. All appears lost.

Outcome: Loot a couple of million from your employees pension fund and transfer it to the slush fund in your mother's name in the Cayman Islands.

Step six: Spend the rest of the pension fund on a high-priced lobbyist with Washington Insider credentials and pray for a miracle. After all God must love the rich because - well, they're rich right?

Outcome: Paydirt! The government fell for all that bullcrap about the market meltdown and the collapse of western society. They really loved the bit about how failure to act would destroy capitalism as we know it and hand the world over to Hugo Chavez and his red legions. Collect 25 billion of taxpayers money in a grand bailout. Make sure at least 10 per cent goes to the other account you have in the Turks and Caicos in your 17-year old mistress's name.

Step seven: Ignore calls for more regulation, keep speculating on high-risk investments because that's where the big money is. Cut your High-street employees wages to minimum wage where possible, and slash the number of retail banks. Increase the number of hedge-fund brokers.

Outcome: Collect your performance-related bonus, which you have agreed to cap in times of austerity to the equivalent of the average third-world country's annual medical budget. Invest your personal 'tax-exempt' stash with those nice gentlemen from Cuidad Juarez.

Repeat every two years until your wife finally finds out about Mistress Sasha, Mistress Minka, and Abdul and Omar the two Moroccan rent boys you talk to (and definitely don't have sex with) every Sunday morning when you tell your wife you're at church.

Outcome: Lose three-quarters of your off-shore bank account, and try to slum it on your secret slush fund of just $100 million.
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Old 06-07-2012, 01:33 PM   #6
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Consciousness shift 2012. Were living in very interesting times
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Old 06-07-2012, 03:31 PM   #7
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A few key dates to keep in mind:

June 13 – German inter-party discussions
June 19-20 - June Federal Reserve Meeting
June 17 – Greek and French elections
June 28-29 - EU summit in Brussels
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Old 06-07-2012, 08:42 PM   #8
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It has got to suck royal being German right now, what with Spains credit rating going down.

The Euro is the biggest shell game in town.
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Old 06-08-2012, 12:58 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dapperdan View Post
A few key dates to keep in mind:

June 13 – German inter-party discussions
June 19-20 - June Federal Reserve Meeting
June 17 – Greek and French elections
June 28-29 - EU summit in Brussels
I imagine the June 17 elections will not restore confidence in the system. Judging from the last Greek elections that left communist party members in positions of power. Should we get a poll going of when the collapse will come? I'm going with August 1 as the over/under.
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Old 06-08-2012, 05:12 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by whodat?? View Post
Should we get a poll going of when the collapse will come? I'm going with August 1 as the over/under.
It's seems that the European Communities capacity to kick the can is nearly endless...but goodness, it sure seems like we're extremely close to the inflection point where the markets take control of the situation from the politicians. And today's late announcement by Spain can't help...

Spain Resisting Conditions On Bank Bailout - EU Official, BBG
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Old 06-08-2012, 10:45 PM   #11
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at least this is going on during Euro 2012.

All those potential riots are not being channeled into cheering for their favorite teams.
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