The Market Rally is Tied to Obama

[IntenseSaint]

Originally Posted by Brown

What's your point? Why does it matter what a rising stock market does for the poor?

The stock market is a tool for the wealthy to get richer. It does nothing for the poor in this country. Our poor don't have a 401k that will benefit from an up market.

[Brown]

Originally Posted by IntenseSaint

The stock market is a tool for the wealthy to get richer. It does nothing for the poor in this country. Our poor don't have a 401k that will benefit from an up market.

Again, in a direct sense, you are correct but I still have to ask if there is a progression in your thought process.

I get the sense that your are trying to make a point that since the poor don't directly benefit that there ought not be a stock market. I don't want to put words in your post though. Is that the point you wanted to make?

[IntenseSaint]

Originally Posted by Brown

Again, in a direct sense, you are correct but I still have to ask if there is a progression in your thought process.

I get the sense that your are trying to make a point that since the poor don't directly benefit that there ought not be a stock market. I don't want to put words in your post though. Is that the point you wanted to make?

Many who supported the 99% movement are now suddenly cheering for a vehicle that enriches the 1% in this country the most.

On the other hand we have those who were against Obama and said he was a socialist, cannot bring themselves to say that the man is actually a very astute capitalist, albeit of the cronyism style.

[Brown]

I was recently watching cnbc with a couple of guys and the level of astonishment in the face of the rising market was right in line with the theme of this thread. These guys simply refused to believe that the stock market could or should rise under obama. I asked them where they were invested and the answers were from gold to cash.

Seems kinda poor sported to me. Gains are gains and while a lot of these gains are coming from central banks printing too much money or true fundamental economic realities, it fuels stocks higher. I've pretty much accepted the bubble economic reality so i stay with sound companies and try to ignore the political noise.

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Originally Posted by drob8785

I've actually made a similar argument on this board.

Ultimately, the market doesn't care which party is in control of the White House. It cares about making money and getting the highest returns. It made money under Clinton and made money under Bush.

What the market doesn't like is uncertainty. One of Obama's biggest mistakes was pushing major reforms (health care and financial) at the very beginning. This, combined with the Republicans closing ranks against him, made 2009 and 2010 very uncertain years. All business were worried how these reforms will affect them. How can you invest when you're not all that sure what your costs will be in the future? Why hire new employees if health care is a question mark? The midterm election only made the uncertainty worse.

The market tripped and bumbled along through the late summer. Then, just as it became clear how much of a clown show the GOP race was becoming, the market began to recover.

The market isn't "glad" that Obama looks like he'll get reelected, it's just reacting to the lessening of the uncertainty surrounding November 2012.

Of course you could spin it the other way too -- the market is gaining because it's confident a Republican can win.

Neither answer can really be proved right or wrong. I think the "uncertainty" theory makes the most sense though.

This is the answer I think.

Companies have actually been doing quite well for a little while now. Profitability has been up, and overall cash positions have been improving. Overall the fundamentals are steadily improving.

There is still the danger of Europe and other geopolitical messes that can derail the market. But the American economy is steadily improving.

[El Caliente]

Sorry it took so long to respond (I know so many were waiting on bated breath), busy day (tax season= erratic clients).

I find it hard to believe any elected official has a tie in to how the stock market does barring some hard line policy that shuts down drilling or something. I wouldn't congratulate Obama, Bush, or even Washington. With so many external factors around the world playing into things, who gets elected (or doesn't) takes very little importance in these things.

Housing bubble, high gas prices, , poor auto sales, the debt bubble, European market swere down. People didn't care about who was president or who was coming in, they were panicking because of this uncertainty. With the bearish market setting in people jumped ship like an Atlante Fan after the 1st qtr of a Falcons game. No president was going to stop that fear.

I for one (and dtradin I know you said you bought in during that 08-08 period) bought in when I saw these stocks trading at all time lows. Heck I bought US Steel at $22, and Las Vegas Sands at $2.25, and a few others at less than a 10th of what they are today. Many people saw this as a buying opportunity, and that is what started pushing those stock back up. You also had things like Visa's IPO, and other hot things happening during this time to entice the market. The biggest part of this was companies were posting solid returns, turning back fear of a market collapse. (As has been said) Great returns help rocket stocks (see Apple).

Bush and Obama can be blamed or patted on the backs for their actions, but I wont be heaping any thanks on them, when it was Americans taking risks on these stocks, not presidents.

[bobad]

Originally Posted by saintfan-n-alex

the market does what it always does - goes up, then goes down and so on and so on ...

But you have to ask yourself "why?".

Markets and investments are way out ahead of events and possible events.

Opportunistic investors don't wait until election day to invest. They watch political polls and adjust their investments strategy accordingly, months ahead of the election. By election day, all the best opportunities are long gone. Good investors have a knack for anticipating and getting in early.

Currently, investors are optimistic that someone will beat Obama, meaning money will come out of hiding, businesses will expand, people will go to work, fuel and utilities costs will go down. Should the political polls change substantially, so will investment strategy.

[bobad]

Originally Posted by IntenseSaint

The stock market is a tool for the wealthy to get richer. It does nothing for the poor in this country. Our poor don't have a 401k that will benefit from an up market.

Maybe we should ban the Capitalist system and all live on bales of magic government money. Never mind that has always failed and resulted in starvation and genocide, we need to try it for ourselves.

[saintfan-n-alex]

Originally Posted by bobad

But you have to ask yourself "why?".

Markets and investments are way out ahead of events and possible events.

Opportunistic investors don't wait until election day to invest. They watch political polls and adjust their investments strategy accordingly, months ahead of the election. By election day, all the best opportunities are long gone. Good investors have a knack for anticipating and getting in early.

Currently, investors are optimistic that someone will beat Obama, meaning money will come out of hiding, businesses will expand, people will go to work, fuel and utilities costs will go down. Should the political polls change substantially, so will investment strategy.

If I knew the answer to why I wouldn't be poor lol


As far as the politics - once. Hillary and Obama made their deal the president was all but known , not sure when the timeframe for that and the beginning of the downturn was - the downturn didn't affect me really so I wasn't paying attention.


I don't think I'd bet money on Obama defeat , I don't like him nor the attitude of the country now , I dont trust him and i dont think he is open about his true beliefs and agenda.


and if the IRS or some other federal entity tells me I have to buy health insurance whomever idea it was to put that in place will be , as Dennis Miller stated, not a president that has any interest in me and people like me.

But as far as investing based on his defeat is more risk than wall street would take - they just may have adjusted to work around his policies etc. a comparison of what the moneymaking opportunities are now vs pre-downturn could tell us .

[GameBreaker]

Originally Posted by dapperdan

I would have turned around the headline: The Obama Rally is tied to the Market

Truth!

[dtc]

Originally Posted by El Caliente

Sorry it took so long to respond (I know so many were waiting on bated breath), busy day (tax season= erratic clients).

I find it hard to believe any elected official has a tie in to how the stock market does barring some hard line policy that shuts down drilling or something. I wouldn't congratulate Obama, Bush, or even Washington. With so many external factors around the world playing into things, who gets elected (or doesn't) takes very little importance in these things.

Housing bubble, high gas prices, , poor auto sales, the debt bubble, European market swere down. People didn't care about who was president or who was coming in, they were panicking because of this uncertainty. With the bearish market setting in people jumped ship like an Atlante Fan after the 1st qtr of a Falcons game. No president was going to stop that fear.

I for one (and dtradin I know you said you bought in during that 08-08 period) bought in when I saw these stocks trading at all time lows. Heck I bought US Steel at $22, and Las Vegas Sands at $2.25, and a few others at less than a 10th of what they are today. Many people saw this as a buying opportunity, and that is what started pushing those stock back up. You also had things like Visa's IPO, and other hot things happening during this time to entice the market. The biggest part of this was companies were posting solid returns, turning back fear of a market collapse. (As has been said) Great returns help rocket stocks (see Apple).

Bush and Obama can be blamed or patted on the backs for their actions, but I wont be heaping any thanks on them, when it was Americans taking risks on these stocks, not presidents.

Generally, my stock belief is that the market is a cheat in favor of professional traders who get paid to trade up or down and money managers who are getting paid to manage risk. The volatility comes from emotion and emotion is dangerous. When there's too much hubris in the market and unsustainable fundamental demand for products the shares of stocks are no longer directly tied to those facts. Instead, they're twisted through a lens of emotion and every reaction is analyzed, repeated, exaggerated and repeated again ad nauseum.

I buy when I sense the emotion has pushed logic and reason too far out of the equation. Sell when the reality doesn't support the values. Essentially, when the market is so drunk it can't focus, I like to try to hang my foot off the side of the bed, touch the floor and make the world stop spinning. Inauguration day was one of those days.

[SUGrad03]

So just to get this right.

Market recovery not because of Obama

High gas prices ALL because of Obama?

[bobad]

Originally Posted by SUGrad03

So just to get this right.

Market recovery not because of Obama

High gas prices ALL because of Obama?

Yes, without a single doubt.

[IntenseSaint]

Originally Posted by bobad

Yes, without a single doubt.

Those political blinders comfy?

[SUGrad03]

Got it, thanks.