Predicting the 2012 Election

[drob8785]

Thought ya'll might be interested in this fun graphic by the Washington Post and some political scientists out of Yale, UCLA, and GWU. It's fun to see the boring stats part of polisci get dressed up.

Predict Obama's odds in the 2012 election - The Washington Post

Their model has some flaws -- it overestimated Bush in '92 and underestimated Reagan in '84 -- but it's fun to play with the numbers.

It uses % change in GDP over Q1-Q3 and the presidential approval rating in June.

If the election was held today, using the data from the last three quarters (+2.6%) and the current presidential approval ratings (48%), it would predict Obama winning 90% of the time.

[Rickboy]

It is a very interesting indicator but I don't think it is taking the incumbents competition into consideration. IMO each of those Presidents that won had weak competition. George HW Bush could have won against weaker competition but Clinton ran an outstanding campaign.

I think President Obama has a pretty decent chance at winning because a lot of people think Romney is OK, but very few really want to throw their support behind him. He is a very mediocre candidate. I personally think he and Obama are two sides of the same coin.

[El Caliente]

Very interesting article and gives credence to people's belief of why Republicans are hoping for a bad economy going into the election.

I agree Rickyboy in that Obama will probably win because while people think Romney is ok, they would rather go with the evil they know over the one that they don't.

I wish the sample size of the president would have expanded past Carter.

[guidomerkinsrules]

i think this election hangs uncomfortably on what happens to the european economy

[Superfan]

Originally Posted by Rickboy

It is a very interesting indicator but I don't think it is taking the incumbents competition into consideration. IMO each of those Presidents that won had weak competition. George HW Bush could have won against weaker competition but Clinton ran an outstanding campaign.

I think President Obama has a pretty decent chance at winning because a lot of people think Romney is OK, but very few really want to throw their support behind him. He is a very mediocre candidate. I personally think he and Obama are two sides of the same coin.

Ross Perot killed him not clinton.

[Geldo]

I predict big business will win, the economy will get worse, ordinary people will get poorer, and the rich will get tax cuts. Doesn't matter which gormless puppet gets the nice big neo-classical home - the outcome will be the same.

[drob8785]

Originally Posted by El Caliente

Very interesting article and gives credence to people's belief of why Republicans are hoping for a bad economy going into the election.

I agree Rickyboy in that Obama will probably win because while people think Romney is ok, they would rather go with the evil they know over the one that they don't.

I wish the sample size of the president would have expanded past Carter.

The model was actually built using election data going back to 1948.

The problem though with trying to construct a statistical model like this is that the data set is long and thin -- few elections spread out over a long period of time.

[El Caliente]

Originally Posted by Superfan

Ross Perot killed him not clinton.

It is interesting how little things like that have such an impact on history. Perot sunk Bush.

Ditka was asked to run for Senate in 2004. His opponent was going to be Barack Obama. He turned it down though. Imagine if he had run how history would have been altered.

[dapperdan]

Looking at the current RCP map, it sure looks like Obama should win the election.

Currently, Obama has a 227 to 170 electoral college vote lead.

And here are some of the swing states, per RCP:

Ohio: 46.0% Obama vs 40.7% Romney
Pennsylvania: 45.6% Obama vs 39.6% Romney
Florida: 47.3% Obama vs 44.0% Romney

Romney has an uphill battle, doable, but uphill.

[dapperdan]

But here's the part where it might get very interesting...

1) the economy is currently slowing. No question about that. We've moved from 3.0% GDP growth in Q4-11 to 2.2% growth in Q1-12, and most of Q1 growth was in the first 8 weeks of Q1, the economy is currently on an even slower growth pace, approximately 1.5% growth from March through April. With the slowing growth has been a slowdown in new jobs...if we see a continuation of the slowdown in job growth, which is a distinct possibility, you would expect that to translate into a tightening of the job approval numbers.

2) No QE. If there the combination of a slowing economy and no Quantitative Easing coming from the Fed in June, then you could definitely see a pullback in stock prices throughout the summer. Again, it tightens the political collar for the President.

3) European Slowdown. European elections will be over in June. At that point, things could get quite testy...It will be interesting to see if the Germans begin to reassert themselves. No more LTRO (Long Term Refinance Operations) would be a problem for European markets, but also a problem for U.S. (and China) growth prospects. The Spanish and Portuguese debt problems step up front and center. And the French, with the prospects of a Socialist as PM, raising social spending, daring the markets to downgrade their credit (which will occur in a heartbeat).

It should be an interesting summer.

Almost forgot to mention, then you've got the looming debt ceiling debate here in the U.S. that should occur in September.

[champ76]

Originally Posted by dapperdan

Looking at the current RCP map, it sure looks like Obama should win the election.

Currently, Obama has a 227 to 170 electoral college vote lead.

And here are some of the swing states, per RCP:

Ohio: 46.0% Obama vs 40.7% Romney
Pennsylvania: 45.6% Obama vs 39.6% Romney
Florida: 47.3% Obama vs 44.0% Romney

Romney has an uphill battle, doable, but uphill.

dd, it's not a good sign for the incumbent to be polling at less than 50% six months before the election in the toss up states.

Turnout is the key. I'd be very surprised by an Obama win. It feels a lot like 1980.

[dapperdan]

Originally Posted by champ76

dd, it's not a good sign for the incumbent to be polling at less than 50% six months before the election in the toss up states.

Turnout is the key. I'd be very surprised by an Obama win. It feels a lot like 1980.

Champ, you're absolutely right that it's not a good sign for the incumbent to be polling at less than 50% less than 6 months before the election in toss up states. No question about that...

However, I'm not sold on the 1980 comparison for two main reasons: 1) Obama is a better politician than Carter was, and 2) Reagan was a much better politician than Romney is. So on political skills alone, you have an inherently stronger Democratic politician competing against a weaker Republican politician.

[Newbian Princess]

Originally Posted by Geldo

I predict big business will win, the economy will get worse, ordinary people will get poorer, and the rich will get tax cuts. Doesn't matter which gormless puppet gets the nice big neo-classical home - the outcome will be the same.

Yes to the first sentence. But "the outcome" includes much more than the economy. So it does in fact matter which of the gormless puppets is elected. Obama hasn't proven to be The Harbinger of Human Rights as many had hoped, and I hate to throw out this cliche', but he is the lesser of two evils. I'm sure you could list some real distinctions among Thatcher, Blair, Cameron, et al.

Good to see you posting, btw. My boy F. Torres is on a hooootttttt streak!

[TheDeuce53]

Originally Posted by champ76

dd, it's not a good sign for the incumbent to be polling at less than 50% six months before the election in the toss up states.

Turnout is the key. I'd be very surprised by an Obama win. It feels a lot like 1980.

I disagree. It's one thing for the lead to be less than 50%, but he still has a 5-7 point lead in those states, and he hasn't even really started campaigning.. and that's the key, I think. People seem to have forgotten that, for all his faults, Obama is one of the best campaigners we have seen... and Romney is well.. Romney.

In terms of campaign ability, Obama/Romney and Carter/Reagan have the roles reversed.

[dapperdan]

Originally Posted by TheDeuce53

but he still has a 5-7 point lead in those states, and he hasn't even really started campaigning..

I didn't realize that the President ever stopped campaigning.