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07-12-2012, 03:29 PM
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#31
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Hall-of-Famer
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 2,542
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Sparkle
What's the problem with referring to it as Obamacare at the NAACP? Is that racist?
Someone didnt get the memo:
Obamacare
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Republicans can't call Obamacare "Obamacare" ...only people who support Obamacare can call it that.
It's the new n-word.
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07-12-2012, 04:16 PM
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#32
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Subscribing Member
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 7,555
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dtc
i've spent my adult life calculating margins and odds. the only place this race looks close is through the eyes of soap-selling news outlets seeking to boost ratings. the national polls are sorry attempts to maintain the appearance of a race for marketing reasons only as the fact remains the electoral college map defines the winner.
That winner, barring terrorist attack or some other nightmare scenario, is Barrack Hussein Obama.
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Politics is far more than crunching numbers and studying PE ratios. I've been observing politics since I was a ute, and barring terrorist attack or some other nightmare scenerio, the next president is Mitt Romney.
The handwriting is on the wall: democratic politicians distancing themselves from Obama; money flowing disproportionately to Romney; polls not moving and Obama not cracking 50%.
The electorate made up its mind some time ago. Romney is doing his best to not upset the apple cart while keeping the base whipped up. The Supreme Court handed him a gift with the Obamacare ruling; the same motivated folks who showed up in 2010 will be there again in four months. Romney may not be their first choice, but in this election, he's their only choice.
Addressing the OP, Romney's appearance at the NAACP convention showed he ain't scared of going into the lion's den; he did not pander, he didn't sugar coat. He may not have earned votes but he earned some respect. In the long run, that's helpful.
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1 out of 2 members found this post helpful.
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07-12-2012, 04:25 PM
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#33
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Patriotic Sin Pillows
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Redneck Riviera
Age: 45
Posts: 18,049
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Quote:
Originally Posted by champ76
Politics is far more than crunching numbers and studying PE ratios. I've been observing politics since I was a ute, and barring terrorist attack or some other nightmare scenerio, the next president is Mitt Romney.
The handwriting is on the wall: democratic politicians distancing themselves from Obama; money flowing disproportionately to Romney; polls not moving and Obama not cracking 50%.
The electorate made up its mind some time ago. Romney is doing his best to not upset the apple cart while keeping the base whipped up. The Supreme Court handed him a gift with the Obamacare ruling; the same motivated folks who showed up in 2010 will be there again in four months. Romney may not be their first choice, but in this election, he's their only choice.
Addressing the OP, Romney's appearance at the NAACP convention showed he ain't scared of going into the lion's den; he did not pander, he didn't sugar coat. He may not have earned votes but he earned some respect. In the long run, that's helpful.
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Have you consulted an electoral map upon which to base these wide eyed assertions? I suspect not and given the national polling you're talking about it would make sense that you're thinking that because they're statistically tied in various polls that the general election numbers matter.
They don't. What matters is getting the number or required college ballots. That race isn't very close.
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"America has only three cities: New York, San Francisco, and NEW ORLEANS. Everywhere else is Cleveland."- Tennessee Williams
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2 out of 3 members found this post helpful.
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07-12-2012, 04:44 PM
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#34
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Subscribing Member
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 7,555
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dtc
Have you consulted an electoral map upon which to base these wide eyed assertions? I suspect not and given the national polling you're talking about it would make sense that you're thinking that because they're statistically tied in various polls that the general election numbers matter.
They don't. What matters is getting the number or required college ballots. That race isn't very close.
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Yeah, I've looked at the electoral map. And I'm sure you've seen the results from 2010 in the battleground states. Romney will win the popular vote by 3-4%, maybe 5%, which is more than enough to assure an electoral college victory. The only time the electoral college has not been aligned with popular vote, the popular vote was essential split 50/50.
The only thing that would throw off this calculation would be a mildly serious third party run.
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07-12-2012, 04:57 PM
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#35
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Patriotic Sin Pillows
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Redneck Riviera
Age: 45
Posts: 18,049
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Quote:
Originally Posted by champ76
Yeah, I've looked at the electoral map. And I'm sure you've seen the results from 2010 in the battleground states. Romney will win the popular vote by 3-4%, maybe 5%, which is more than enough to assure an electoral college victory. The only time the electoral college has not been aligned with popular vote, the popular vote was essential split 50/50.
The only thing that would throw off this calculation would be a mildly serious third party run.
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In my best Mitt Romney voice......
"Wanna bet $10,000?"
You may be right, but I'm not buying it. Romney's not ahead in the general and he's unliked. His economic plans are less favorable and while he polls highly when asked if he understands the economy, his economic plan is shown less favorably than Obama's. Also, you're talking about the base, but I'd suggest you're going to see a whole lot of women and minorities show up to make sure Romney doesn't get the opportunity to put us back to Jim Crow and the days of institutional sexism.
__________________
"America has only three cities: New York, San Francisco, and NEW ORLEANS. Everywhere else is Cleveland."- Tennessee Williams
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2 out of 3 members found this post helpful.
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07-12-2012, 05:00 PM
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#36
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Administrator
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I don't know how anybody could feel confident calling this one right now, and probably right up to the election.
Champ, a lot of the things you say seem to make sense, but I don't think a third party run is the only wild card -- I think Romney is, too. He is hard to pin down and comes across as really out-of-touch, uncharismatic, stiff, and awkward. Those are traits that tend to not serve candidates well (McCain, Dole, Kerry, Gore, and G.H.W. Bush up against Clinton).
Conversely, I wouldn't undersell charisma (Reagan, Clinton) and Obama has that in abundance, especially matched against Romney.
If Romney can make a strong enough case on job creation, then the election probably is over. I'm not at all certain he can.
I definitely wouldn't be comfortable calling this one either way.
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Zoinks
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07-12-2012, 05:08 PM
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#37
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SR is my life!
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 10,174
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I feel fairly comfortable predicting an Obama win and here is why. GOP majority leader Bohner was quoted this week saying he can't make people love Romney, and that 95% of his votes will come from people voting against Obama rather than for Romney. Thats not a winning approach. See: 2004 or 1996
And I say this not as an Obama supporter, because I will not be voting for him.
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1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
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07-12-2012, 05:22 PM
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#38
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Administrator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mister pc
And I say this not as an Obama supporter, because I will not be voting for him.
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Yeah, but I seem to be hearing that more this time around from left-leaning voters, as you appear to be. If enough of them really are moving away from Obama, Romney might just run away with this, afterall.
Obviously that ties in with some of Champ's reasoning -- if Obama's support has cooled too much, then it probably won't matter how good or bad of a candidate Romney is. The Right is voting "no" on Obama in November. Romney is just the means -- not many people seem to like him, otherwise. Will there be as many people fired up to vote for Obama as a "no" against Romney? Well if you and others are any indication, that seems pretty questionable.
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Zoinks
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07-12-2012, 06:23 PM
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#39
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Hall-of-Famer
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Henderson, NV
Posts: 3,051
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dtc
In my best Mitt Romney voice......
"Wanna bet $10,000?"
You may be right, but I'm not buying it. Romney's not ahead in the general and he's unliked. His economic plans are less favorable and while he polls highly when asked if he understands the economy, his economic plan is shown less favorably than Obama's. Also, you're talking about the base, but I'd suggest you're going to see a whole lot of women and minorities show up to make sure Romney doesn't get the opportunity to put us back to Jim Crow and the days of institutional sexism.
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You forgot latinos.
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07-12-2012, 07:33 PM
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#40
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Super Forum Fanatic
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: El Centro,CA
Posts: 7,402
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If I have offended anyone with my comments in regards to Romney being President and only hoping that booing was the worst it got, well i am sorry for waking you up to reality. Presidents get booed and worse. It happens, the world keeps on spinning.
__________________
If you say something trivial and want it to sound important, just say your age before it.
"I'm 45, and I want a sandwich!"
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07-12-2012, 08:00 PM
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#41
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Patriotic Sin Pillows
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Redneck Riviera
Age: 45
Posts: 18,049
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the-commish
You forgot latinos.
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I thought latinos could still be covered under my blanket "minorities" description.
__________________
"America has only three cities: New York, San Francisco, and NEW ORLEANS. Everywhere else is Cleveland."- Tennessee Williams
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07-13-2012, 01:24 AM
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#42
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Hall-of-Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 12,999
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DDT not completely, some Asian-Americans(Philipino, Vietnamese, Cambodian) blocs as well as anti-Castro Cubans in Miami lean solidly Republican despite disagreements on social issues. Though recently illegal immigration, abortion, gay marriage have widened ideological gap some refuse to believe voting Republican is preferrable to moderate Dems like Robert Menendez.
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07-13-2012, 06:34 AM
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#43
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32nd of Juvember
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 6,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TechDawg09
Republicans can't call Obamacare "Obamacare" ...only people who support Obamacare can call it that.
It's the new n-word.
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LOL...I wouldn't go that far TDawg, but clearly its a terms that some are still trying to adopt and others are rejecting. It will be his term, like Reaganomics, in the end.
Still, whether he knew what he was doing or not (I still stand with the "or not" crowd), he came, he spoke without flinching, and handled the boos. Hell, that earned my respect. I thought him to be much weaker than that, regardless if his handlers planned it or he was clueless to the response of saying the term and saying to repeal it...on their turf.
You have to gain some respect for a man that bold.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by MLU
You don't like the laughter? Get smarter.
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1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
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07-13-2012, 09:13 AM
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#44
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I'm a beast.. :shrug:
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Parts Unknown
Age: 35
Posts: 11,730
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__________________
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07-13-2012, 09:27 AM
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#45
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Subscribing Member
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 7,555
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beast
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Maybe they should have required ID before allowing them to vote, er, enter the room.
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0 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
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