Who Casts Their Vote Where

[El Caliente]

A moment ago I was reading the transcripts from the Mitt Romney address to the NRA (that were made the other day). It re-dawned (is that a real word) on me that whether Romney makes that speech or not, the NRA backs republicans. Then I was reminded that, teachers unions almost always vote democrat. Auto unions vote democrat, while family value folks almost always vote republican.

Who do other groups traditionally cast their votes with?

[Superfan]

Feminist and minorities typically go democrat. South goes republican because of Dixiecrats and the civil rights issues of that time. Somewhat racism in the 60's distorted the public to go republican and it was passed down. UAW democrat.

Basically the reason we have a hard time controlling the border is because of the Dixiecrat issues. Whichever party gets that issue resolved will be hated and lose the Hispanic voting base forever.

[Devildog]

The military usually votes republican, but I've been seeing that demographic shift to more of a moderate/independent base.

[drob8785]

Voting behavior can be broken down and predicted (with varying degrees of success) along many lines:

Racially: African-Americans used be staunch Republican voters (Lincoln was a R) but that has flipped with the Civil Rights movement and the Republican Southern Strategy. Other minority groups tend to vote Democrat as well.

Religion: Church going folk tend to vote Republican, but not always, church going black baptists vote D.

Sex: Women tend to vote more liberally then men.

Location: People living in the cities tend to vote Democrat, while those living in the suburbs/rural tend to vote Republican.

Socioeconomic class: Higher your income/wealth, more likely you vote R.

Education: Some evidence suggests a link between educational attainment and voting behavior (more degrees = more likely to vote Dem), but it's disputed. Other variables, such as location, socioeconomic class, etc, seem to have stronger correlations with voting.

And as you pointed out - what organization you belong to (Unions vs NRA) can also be a predictor.

EDIT: Also generation can be a predictor. The WW2 generation tended to vote more Democrat than their children did - they are the generation that grew up with FDR and JFK was one of them, after all.

Originally Posted by Superfan

Somewhat racism in the 60's distorted the public to go republican and it was passed down

Somewhat?! Southern whites didn't want black people around. The Democrats were passing laws that forced desegregation...and the Republicans began talking about "state's rights." Racism had EVERYTHING to do with the switching party identification of the South.

[Geldo]

Billionaire oligarchs don't vote - they don't need to...they sprinkle a few big campaign cheques around to anyone with a chance of getting elected (left or right doesn't mattter as long as they can be bought) and then voila - whoever gets elected they still run the show.

[TechDawg09]

I'm a single, male, white, middle-class, gun-owning, feminist, college-educated, CPA with a cat.

I'm entirely sure that I'm undecided at this point, mainly because of my distrust of Romney.

Generally, I'll vote Republican...unless the specific candidate seems too crazy.

[El Caliente]

Originally Posted by drob8785

Voting behavior can be broken down and predicted (with varying degrees of success) along many lines:

Racially: African-Americans used be staunch Republican voters (Lincoln was a R) but that has flipped with the Civil Rights movement and the Republican Southern Strategy. Other minority groups tend to vote Democrat as well.

Religion: Church going folk tend to vote Republican, but not always, church going black baptists vote D.

Sex: Women tend to vote more liberally then men.

Location: People living in the cities tend to vote Democrat, while those living in the suburbs/rural tend to vote Republican.

Socioeconomic class: Higher your income/wealth, more likely you vote R.

Education: Some evidence suggests a link between educational attainment and voting behavior (more degrees = more likely to vote Dem), but it's disputed. Other variables, such as location, socioeconomic class, etc, seem to have stronger correlations with voting.

And as you pointed out - what organization you belong to (Unions vs NRA) can also be a predictor.

EDIT: Also generation can be a predictor. The WW2 generation tended to vote more Democrat than their children did - they are the generation that grew up with FDR and JFK was one of them, after all.



Somewhat?! Southern whites didn't want black people around. The Democrats were passing laws that forced desegregation...and the Republicans began talking about "state's rights." Racism had EVERYTHING to do with the switching party identification of the South.

This is what I was looking for. I figured you would probably be the guy to give the most pin point answer.

[BIG E]

Prostitutes normally vote Democrat, but that may change after this latest failure to pay for services rendered down in Columbia.

[the-commish]

An electoral map for April 27, 2012. This map is from Karl Rove. Take it with a grain of salt, since it is still 6 months from election day.

Karl Rove

[doctorj]

Originally Posted by El Caliente

This is what I was looking for. I figured you would probably be the guy to give the most pin point answer.

It was a great response.

[JimEverett]

Originally Posted by the-commish

An electoral map for April 27, 2012. This map is from Karl Rove. Take it with a grain of salt, since it is still 6 months from election day.

Karl Rove

Tennessee is a toss-up?

No way in hell.

[SCSaintsfan]

Originally Posted by JimEverett

Tennessee is a toss-up?

No way in hell.

Same with South Carolina. Not a toss-up!!

[DaveXA]

Originally Posted by JimEverett

Tennessee is a toss-up?

No way in hell.

Originally Posted by SCSaintsfan

Same with South Carolina. Not a toss-up!!

I agree, don't see it either unless something major happens between now and November.

I think Rove's map is questionable. Not sure what he's basing his numbers on, but I don't think Romney has it as bad as he's making it out to be. That said, the election is still Obama's to lose IMO.

[drob8785]

Uh...I think ya'll should go back a re-read the map. Tennessee is not a toss-up, it's listed as a 'Lean Romney.'

And the link gives an explanation on why S.Carolina is listed as a toss-up: essentially poor polling data.