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View Poll Results: Will there be another big war in our lifetimes?
Yes 35 66.04%
No 18 33.96%
Voters: 53. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-18-2017, 02:42 PM   #1
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Will we see a major war in our lifetime?

Major war as in conventional (or nuclear) conflict between 2 or more top-10 militaries within the next 40 years or so.
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Old 04-18-2017, 02:49 PM   #2
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If by war you mean more than some sort of limited hot incident or proxy flight - but actual fully nuclear or extended conventional campaign between the two (or more) formal militaries . . . lord, I hope not.

Considering the top 10 are all nuclear, it becomes hard to imagine a nuclear power tolerating a substantial conventional defeat. Therefore, if you're truly talking about a real war, the likelihood of nuclear weapons seems near certain. And the use of modern nuclear weapons is terrifying. I suppose it is possible that nuclear nations could wage a fully conventional war without resorting to nuclear . . . even if it meant defeat. But that's quite a bit of faith to put in human behavior.
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Old 04-18-2017, 02:51 PM   #3
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I think the stakes are too high and businesses are too global at this point. We'll keep lobbing high dollar bombs into the sandbox though.
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Old 04-18-2017, 02:55 PM   #4
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Since North Korea is the 4th largest standing army in the world, you might equally ask if we'll see it in the next few weeks.

Coincidentally when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1991 it was the 4th largest standing army. I'm not sure where it ranked when we invaded them in 2003, but I'm sure it was top 10.

With Vietnam it makes 3 times there've been such wars in my lifetime. So a 50 year old has seen at least 17 years of their lives where one is active and ongoing as a hot war (1967-1975, 1991, 2003-2011). I'd say it's foolish to think there won't be more.

The bigger question is will there ever again be such a war that the US isn't fully involved in? We spent a bit on the sideline at the beginning of each WW, but really since 1900 there hasn't been a major war anywhere in the world where the US didn't have a serious piece of the action.
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Old 04-18-2017, 03:10 PM   #5
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I think the stakes are too high and businesses are too global at this point. We'll keep lobbing high dollar bombs into the sandbox though.
Powerful multinational corporations and banks with operations in both Germany and the US helped both countries build up their arsenals to wage war against each other. War is good business when you're selling to and financing both sides. It might even be the world's oldest business model.
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Old 04-18-2017, 03:13 PM   #6
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I believe most world powers fully realize a traditional big war is a lose/lose situation for everyone involved. Sanctions, posturing, cyber-warfare, etc are going to keep the threat of a big war in check. Of course that's all assuming the leaders of these world powers are all rational people ... lord help us.
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Old 04-18-2017, 03:48 PM   #7
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Yes. Yes there will be a major war soon.
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Old 04-18-2017, 04:14 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StudioSaint View Post
Powerful multinational corporations and banks with operations in both Germany and the US helped both countries build up their arsenals to wage war against each other. War is good business when you're selling to and financing both sides. It might even be the world's oldest business model.
No doubt, but a major disruption in the supply chain these days is different than in the past. I recall s factory strike at just one plant which caused Ford to delay delivery of vehicles for the duration.

Now imagine you can't ship anything between the US and China. WalMart would crater.
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Old 04-18-2017, 04:20 PM   #9
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Seems inevitable.

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. People old enough to remember the horrors of war are dying off. Young people don't learn history, and have no problem voting for unhinged maniacs just to "shake things up."
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Old 04-18-2017, 04:31 PM   #10
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If your over 72 yes.
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Old 04-18-2017, 05:58 PM   #11
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If the US Navy is weakened to the point it can no longer project overwhelming force all over the globe then another major conflict is a possibility.

That does not seem likely in the foreseeable future.
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Old 04-18-2017, 06:50 PM   #12
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If the US Navy is weakened to the point it can no longer project overwhelming force all over the globe then another major conflict is a possibility.

That does not seem likely in the foreseeable future.
Why do you think the US cannot project overwhelming force all over the globe? Why does the US need to project overwhelming force? Are we like a typical bully in that when provoked we have no response but to come out swinging?

IIRC we can launch cruise missiles from submarines, air, and land. We do not need the liability that carriers present in this day and age. If we do not piss off all of our allies, they will provide us with bases in the event of war.

I for one am really tired of subsidizing a bloated military budget at the behest of multinational corporations. These companies stand to profit greatly from any war, which will be fought with the sons of others while the companies themselves fatten their wallets.
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Old 04-18-2017, 07:18 PM   #13
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Global Firepower Military Ranks - 2016

BTW, depending on how you rank the 10, the limited realistic choices would be war between the US and Russia or between the US and China. In this list for example only Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Indonesia and Brazil crack the top 15 as relatively less stable and Turkey at #8 is the only really unstable one. It's also hard to see the other powers dividing around Turkey if it got bad enough I'd imagine the side they didn't tangle with just watching the other smoke them like a ham.

Perhaps something with Turkey is the best way besides the Middle East to force a US Russia Armageddon. I have zero doubt in my mind that if a hot war does start with the US and Russia it'll end in a full nuclear exchange. It's plausible or possible a US China situation could be stopped before going there, but very very slim. Anything involving the big 3 is just inevitably within hours or a day ending with a full exchange. I'd see it that way if you had Gorbachev and Carter on each side. With Putin and Trump or the like it's laughable to think otherwise.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:50 PM   #14
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Really, what's the point of a major war? Business is so global and shipping so massive that any major war would completely cripple the worlds economy. Business wouldn't allow politicians to do it. Now Iraq was great for business, but as far as Russia or China? No way. China would have no reason to destroy its largest consumer, and the US couldn't take away China's imports. Also, what would there be to gain? Nothing.
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