The 49ers defense is very solid, but hardly historically great.
You have to move past the NFC West, and look at the schedule overall. Of the 16 offenses they faced (each of the NFC West teams 2x, obviously), the average NFL rank of the offenses was about 19th in each of yards per game, passer rating, and yards per carry and about 21st in points per game. Some of this comes from playing the 49ers...but some of it doesn't. This is a well-below average bunch, and they didn't see any of the three offenses that were far better than the other 29: us, the Packers and the Pats.
Remember last year, when the Saints had the "fourth-ranked defense" based on yards per game, where we got fat on a historically bad schedule of opposing offenses? This isn't close to that this year, the 49ers have a legitimately good defense....but you get the idea.
I dont' focus on the turnovers too much, since those tend to normalize from year to year and to me aren't as big a predictive factor in any one game. One thing I can't get out of my head -- this great 49ers defense gave up 5.1 yards per play, which was all of ninth in the league at yards allowed per play. I completely recognize the issue of "you win with points" blah blah blah, but I just can't get my head around "dominant defense" and "eight teams in the league gave up fewer yards per snap."
The 49ers have a very good defense, absolutely one of the best in the NFL this year. But if you want to stop maybe one of the best offenses in NFL history, and a balanced one to boot that takes as good a care of the balll as anybody, you better bring a pretty big stick, and I don't think they've got one that size.
SF has the 6th best defense when put up against an average schedule (DVOA).. They're 8th against the pass and 1st against the run..
I would guess that their non-adjusted numbers against the run (-26% - negative is good) are boosted by recovering 15 fumbles..
One thing of note, their statistical variance is slightly larger than the Saints defense.. So while our defense hasn't been the greatest - though they've been solid - they've been consistent and rank as the 4th most consistent defense..
Regarding the Bucs, you could argue it was maybe the worst loss of the season for the Saints, considering the Bucs lost their last 10 games of the season as well as getting beaten by over 40 points the week before we played them. That's one of the worst 12 game stretches in NFL history, and the Saints let them off the hook that day. That's what a -4 turnover ratio will do for you on any given Sunday. Goes to show you how bad they were even in that game to nearly lose after being +4 on turnovers.
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Originally Posted by No2DC
Although the Bucs loss looks bad now, they were 3-2 when we played them. I can live with a road loss to a div foe, but the rams game makes no sense-- they were bad before we played them and bad after we played them.
definitely an ugly loss, but I'll die believing that outcome was due to SP getting his knee blown out more than anything. teams plan for a multitude of contingencies, but essentially losing your HC/play-caller for 80% of the game is generally not one of them.
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Alright stat hounds...How inflated is this "vaunted" 49ers defense due to their horrible division???
To get back to the point of the thread....
49ers Defense against their division:
Points against per game: 14.8 per game
Pass Yards: 251 yards per game
Rush Yards: 77 yards per game
Turnovers per game: 2.7 per game
1st downs per game: 13.8 per game
49ers Defense against teams outside the division:
Points against per game: 14.0 per game
Pass Yards: 280 yards per game
Rush Yards: 77 yards per game
Turnovers per game: 2.2 per game
1st downs per game: 18.5 per game
49ers Defense against top 10 offenses:
Points against per game: 21.0 per game
Pass Yards: 340 yards per game
Rush Yards: 89 yards per game
Turnovers per game: 1.6 per game
1st downs per game: 21.6 per game
The biggest point in these stats, to me, looks like they give up 5 more first downs per game to non-divisional foes, which looks to be the only significant difference from division foes vs non-division foes.
Where there's a huge difference is look at the third chart showing the three times they played a top 10 Offense. Passing yards goes significantly up, rushing yards significantly up, 1st downs significantly up and TO's significantly down.
The most impressive stat in these numbers is the Points against when facing top 10 Offenses. 21 points given up is a really good number there.
SF has the 6th best defense when put up against an average schedule (DVOA).. They're 8th against the pass and 1st against the run..
I would guess that their non-adjusted numbers against the run (-26% - negative is good) are boosted by recovering 15 fumbles..
One thing of note, their statistical variance is slightly larger than the Saints defense.. So while our defense hasn't been the greatest - though they've been solid - they've been consistent and rank as the 4th most consistent defense..
Great link. Looks like they've been pretty pedestrian against 3rd and 4th WRs in spread formations, and when people throw to their backs.
Are we any good at that stuff? Might be helpful.
If anything, Payton and Brees are pretty good at finding your weak spots.
When you have 3 bad teams in your division, you have 6 subpar opponents per season. I am not taking anything away from what they earned this season, but all I hear about is that vaunted defense of the Niners. How legit is it and do they really deserve the credit they have been getting?
So who wants to take a crack at finding out some stats or info regarding this? Like I said, I think they get credit for the stats BUT their division WAS the weakest in the NFC by far.
I posted this the other day but it got moved for some reason. From what I can tell, the 49ers are great against the run not matter who they play. They are mediocre against the pass (Romo threw for 400 yards).
They played in the easiest divison in the NFL and played a very cushy schedule that somehow found them playing a lot of teams at just the right time (injuries, momentum, etc).
The tough teams they played were the Steelers, Ravens, Cowboys, Giants and Lions (and the Cowboys and Lions are arguable). Against those teams Alex Smith averaged 150 yards passing per game while their running game averaged 105 yards. On defense against those same five teams the 49ers gave up an average of 288 yards passing against 76 yards rushing. Now against the rest of the easier teams on their schedule the 49ers averaged 198 yards passing per game while the ground game average 138 yards. while their D gave up an average of 288 yards through the air per game and only 83 yards rushing.
So looking at these numbers it appears that Smith is still the mediocre QB he always was no matter who he plays. I expect him to throw for somewhere between 150-200 yards against us. Now the running game seems to stay consistent so it is obvious that Harbaugh is using the run game to protect Alex Smith. Smart coaching. On the other side of the ball the 49ers run D also stayed consistent and appear to be very good against the run. However their seconday is giving up almost 100 yards more per game to "decent" teams and none of those "decent" teams have a QB or offense who is even close to the level that Brees and the Saints are playing at right now except Stafford and they faced him early in the season (he threw for 244).
So it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Harbaugh will want to grind it out with the running game and try to eat up the clock. Well a lot of teams have tried that and there are two things that can ruin that plan - turnovers and a fast lead by the other team. The 49ers don't give up many turnovers so I expect that Payton will come out attacking their seconday from the opening drive and try to build a quick lead. If he is successful I look for Smith to have a nightmare day.
I know everyone is calling for a close game and think the 49ers have a chance but I'm not buying it. The Lions were more of a threat than the 49ers in my opinion. I know what you are saying, this is what we said last year against the Seahawks....BUT I never said that. Matter of fact I told a friend of mine before that game that the Saints could very well get beaten. This game doesn't feel like that to me.
Below is a breakdown from each game if you want to see how the 49ers fared against the other teams this year (the "against" is what the opposing team did to the 49ers and the "for" is what the 49ers did against that team.
Yeah, and I listed an NFC division that I believe is worse.
So a division with Dallas, NY, WAS, and the PHILLY are weaker than a division with the 49ERS, RAMS, SEAHAWKS, & CARDINALS? is this what you're saying??
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A 13-3 record tells you a lot about a team. They're winners, and they're tough. You can't amass 13 wins without being tough and disciplined. Every team they beat was an NFL team, capable of beating any other team on a given day. You have to take their defense and their offense seriously.
SF has the 6th best defense when put up against an average schedule (DVOA).. They're 8th against the pass and 1st against the run..
I would guess that their non-adjusted numbers against the run (-26% - negative is good) are boosted by recovering 15 fumbles..
One thing of note, their statistical variance is slightly larger than the Saints defense.. So while our defense hasn't been the greatest - though they've been solid - they've been consistent and rank as the 4th most consistent defense..
FO.com does do opponent adjustments so SF's defense being ranked 6th is very solid. But it pales when you compare it to the #1 O ranking of the Saints in terms of degree.
SF weighted defense DVOA is -8.8%
NO weighted offense DVOA is 44.0%
So the Saints are much more above average than the Niners. Or said another way -- if you subtract the SF D from the NO O, you get the NE O which I for one will take!
As follow up to the WR comments, check out the SF pass defense rating against TEs --they are 20th in league. Watch for a BIG game from Graham.
So a division with Dallas, NY, WAS, and the PHILLY are weaker than a division with the 49ERS, RAMS, SEAHAWKS, & CARDINALS? is this what you're saying??
IMO the NFC West is the weakest division in the NFL.
Peeps need to stop with the NFC West thing. Its not accurate anymore.
You can't be serious?!?!?!?! Do you watch football??? Have you seen their schedule??? Did you watch the Pitt game??? Did you see Arizona and St Louis play?!?!?! I give Seattle a little credit as being a solid team but then that's negated by have Tavaris Jackson as their QB (just look at how they lost to the 9ers with a careless fumble driving down by 2)...
I get it, you can only play the teams on your schedule but at the end of the day, I believe they're record is inflated by 3 games and several spots on the defensive rankings... Including turnover ratio... If you're not threatened by the opposing offense, you don't have to put the ball in the air so you just do what you do best and that's pound the ball.
They have a good solid defense but I don't think it's much better then Atlanta, Tenn or Jacksonville...
But we will see in 3 days
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So a division with Dallas, NY, WAS, and the PHILLY are weaker than a division with the 49ERS, RAMS, SEAHAWKS, & CARDINALS? is this what you're saying??
They went 13-3 with David Akers FG's, regardless of the schedule, that's pretty damn impressive.
Something about David Akers. He is deadly accurate at most distances. Even beyond 50 yards.
Except at 40-49 yards where he is one of the least accurate kickers in the NFL
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