Fearless Predictions: WEEK EIGHT Saints vs. Falcons

[Scott B]

By Scott Balot | Saintsreport.com Staff Writer
Posted Oct. 31, 2009

Another week, another signature win for the 2009 New Orleans Saints. Week Eight brings one of several games Saints' fans have had circled on their calendar all off-season, as long-time rival Atlanta Falcons come to town for a Monday Night showcase. Let's take a look at the SAINTS-FALCONS and the rest of WEEK EIGHT in the NFL.

QUICK THOUGHTS

-Hands down, last week's second half comeback against the Dolphins was the best win of Sean Payton's career. Prior to last week, the 2006 Cowboys' game had been the benchmark for the highlight of Payton's four year tenure. Allowing Drew Brees to attempt a running play at the end of the first half may be the single greatest gameday decision he has made, as it allowed the opportunity for his team to aggressively wipe out what was otherwise one of the worst two quarter performances we have seen since 2007.

-Darren Sharper was named the NFC's Defense Player of the Month for October for his outstanding play as the Saints' defensive leader. For his career, October has statistically been his worse month, with November being one of this best. Let's hope that trend continues.

-I'm not a big fan of getting ahead of ourselves, but I'm going to allow myself to indulge a bit. According to www.playoffstatus.com , the current statistical NFL Post-Season probabilities for the Saints are as follows: 19% chance of winning Super Bowl, 36 % chance of going to the Super Bowl, 59% chance of Conference Championship, 90% chance of Second Round, and 98% of First Round. The Saints lead the entire NFL in all statistical probabilities going into week eight.

-While I'm in stat-geek mode, it was said many times throughout the off-season, that if the Saints could field a middle-of-the-road (15th) ranked defense while combining with one of the best offenses in the NFL, the Saints would be playoff contenders. As of this week, the Saints' defense is ranked 11th overall, 14th against the pass, 8th against the run, and 16th in total sacks. Biggest statistical turnaround has been in turnovers, where the Saints are tied for first in the NFL for interceptions, 10th in recovered fumbles, and first in defensive touchdowns scored.

WEEK SEVEN: Saints vs. Falcons

Line: Saints favored by 11

Any time these two teams get together in the Superdome, chances are good that it's going to be a nail-biter. 7 of the last 10 Saints-Falcons games in the Superdome have been decided by a touchdown or less. Matt Ryan has been developing as a legitimate top-10 NFL quarterback, and has been given a formidable target in Hall-of-Fame Tight End Tony Gonzales. The Falcons franchise has survived the Mike Vick debacle, and appear to be in better shape than they were before it. With that said, the NFL is a game of match-ups, and this game's match-up on paper strongly favors the home team. Momentum, talent, and emotion are too much for the visitors, who are decidedly poorer team on the road. Despite a big number, Scott says go against history, take the Saints and lay the 11 points...Saints 41, Falcons 28.

Last Week: 8-4-1(.667)

Season: 47-40-1 (.540)

Lock O' The Week (season): 4-2 (.667)

LOCK O' THE WEEK: ARIZONA - 10 1/2 over CAROLINA-Panthers are reeling towards the top-10 in the draft. They'll need it for a QB.

And now for the rest of WEEK SEVEN in the NFL:

BAL -3 1/2 over DEN-another unbeaten falls for the first time
BUF +3 1/2 over HOU- Bills roller-coaster season continues on the upswing
CLE +14 over CHI: This game is so old-school, the radio broadcasts may outdraw the television broadcasts.
SEA +10 over DAL-winner of this game takes a big step towards the playoffs
DET +4 over STL-Lions are actually FAVORED in a game.
SF +13 1/2 over IND-Colts win a close game at home
NYJ -3 1/2 over MIA -Jets get revenge for earlier season loss
NYG -1 1/2 over PHI-Giants prove they are the best in the NFC North
JAX +3 over TEN-two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year
OAK +17 over SD-too many points for a Norv Turner-coached team to lay
GB -3 over MIN-You-know-who loses two in a row


WHO DAT?!??!