know who to pull for: week 9

[st dude]

It is week eight for the Saints and week nine for the season. In know who to pull for we look at games that could impact the Saints chances for the playoffs or home field advantage and root accordingly. The Saints surprising winning streak is making kwtpf somewhat irrelevant and that is fine with me.
If you win all your games, it does not matter as much what other teams do. Its still early though and we have seen some chinks in the Saints armor the last two games. We have also seen a resilient Saints team that finds ways to win instead of ways to lose.

I would have been very happy to have been 5-2 at this point. Even 4-3 would not have been terrible given what appeared to be a very difficult early schedule. Now we are 7-0 with the Panthers, Rams and Bucs coming up. Some fans will naturally buy into the hype. Hopefully the team will not look past Carolina, a team that easily handled the Cardinals in Arizona last week. Arizona is a year removed from the Super Bowl which makes the Panthers win that much more impressive.

There are sixteen teams in the NFC. Six of them go to the playoffs. One will have home field advantage throughout.

The top teams in order are:

Saints: 7-0
Vikings: 7-1
Cowboys: 5-2
Eagles: 5-2
Giants: 5-3
Falcons: 4-3
Bears: 4-3
Packers: 4-3
Arizona: 4-3

None of the other teams are mathematically eliminated, but it is highly probable your six playoff teams come from this group. A West team might sneak in as division champion if Arizona falters, but a wild card will not likely come from the West. Consequently in kwtpf any games involving these teams will be the most interesting to watch.

Minnesota is the biggest home field threat not just because of their record, but also because of their schedule. Five of the eight games left for the Vikings are at home. Their three games on the road are at Carolina, Arizona and Chicago. These are not walkovers but I would think Minny would be favored in all eight remaining games if the lines came out today.

The Saints have nine games left and five are on the road. Games of major concern (aside from this Sunday) would be Dallas and New England at home and Atlanta on the road. Carolina on the road is another possibly tough game.

The East teams have it the roughest in terms of schedule. Dallas, New York and Philly all have to play each other. Dallas is the other potential home field team to wacth out for since we have wins over Philly and New York. Our game with Dallas could be huge.

This week we have:

4-3 Arizona @ 4-3 Chicago - This is obviously a big game for these two teams. Let Arizona win the West division. At 4-4 the Bears would probably not make the playoffs. They would have to go 6-2 over the second part of the season to get to 10-6 and that would be hard. Arizona could lose and still be in the thick of it in the weak and wimpy West. Go Cards.

4-3 Green Bay @ 0-7 Tampa Bay - Pull for Tampa in the battle of the bays. Tampa would be winless in the SEC. Vanderbilt would be favored by a touchdown. John McKay's words, the former Buc coach, come to mind. When asked about the execution of his team he said he was in favor of it.

2-5 Washington @ 4-3 Atlanta - Atlanta message boards already have premptive threads in play complaining about the refs in their game with the Redskins. Poor Jim Zorn had his man cards stolen by Snyder. Who is the worst owner in football, Al Davis or Daniel Snyder? Davis has the crazyman excuse going, so I will say Snyder. Pull for the Skins but do not get your hopes up.

1-6 Detroit @ 2-5 Seattle - Is this the Game of the Weak or what? I can not imagine why any of you would flip to this game. If you care enough to pull for anyone, pull for the Lions.

1-6 Tennessee @ 3-4 San Francisco - Another terrible game which at least has some appeal. Its week two of the Vince Young revival and that is worth a look see. San Francisco is still very much a player in the West. Almost always pull for the AFC team and this is not the rare exception when you would not. Go Titans.

4-3 San Diego @ 5-3 New York Giants - This is an interesting game on several levels. Eli spurned the Chargers and you know they remember that. The Giants are in a tailspin no one predicted. The New York media will crucify the Giants if they lose this one. The Giants struggles should remind Saints fans how fickle success can be. Do not think the Giants are out of it, you never know, Pull for the Chargers.

5-2 Dallas @ 5-2 Philadelphia - Here is the big kwtpf game of the week. I went to Philly to see the Saints play there. Their fans are supposedly the worst, but gave us Saints fans little trouble. They save it for the Cowboys. How much do Saints fans dislike the Falcons? Whatever that number is, multiply it by a hunnert and you get how Philly fans feel about Dallas. We have the tiebreak over Philly so pull for them to beat Dallas.

3-4 Carolina @ 7-0 New Orleans - Here is a simple test to determine how long you have followed the Saints. When the Saints had the ball Monday night with less than two minutes left and an eleven point lead were you going through scenarios in your head where we would fumble, the Falcons would recover and score, the Falcons would then recover an onside kick, throw a big ben on the last play, go for two and make it and win in overtime? If you answered yes, you were probably there when John Gilliam took the first kick back. Carolina is a bad, but not awful, team. Their Coach has had success against the Saints. The Saints have short week coming off an emotional win. The Saints have a nice cushion in the South but sure do not want to lose it wth a home loss to a Carolina team that can run the ball and play defense.

[SaintsFanInLA]

Good stuff as always.

[rlmarine]

Good stuff as always. I agree with everything but this.

Originally Posted by st dude

The Saints surprising winning streak .

[UptownShark]

[Jonesy77]

Saints

/thread

[Bill]

There's not enough magic dust in the whole country to make some of those scenarios come true... but as some might say: Any Given Sunday.


Another good, informative post st dude

[workhorse]

Great job as always. Agree with all of your picks.

And while I didn't see Gilliam's KO return, I can remember 62-7, Al Dodd becoming the first Saint to become a Falcon, and watched in horror the 2 big ben plays and the Erxleben's "pass" to a Falcon defender after the longsnap heard round the Cresent City. That's more than enough pain for a Saints fan to take.

[redlandssaintsson]

Well done. It's too bad you only care about the NFC (being a Saints fan and all) I'd love to see your KWTPF AFC edition. Solid stuff dude.

[chad_moore]

So, if we get our wishes with KWTPF this week, the standing would look like this come Tuesday morning:

Saints: 8-0
Vikings: 7-1
Eagles: 6-2
Arizona: 5-3
Cowboys: 5-3
Giants: 5-4

Falcons: 4-4
Bears: 4-4
Packers: 4-4

I could live with that

I want to see the NFC East beat each other up all season long. While it's looking like both wild cards may come from there, it would be even sweeter to have the Falcons knocked out of the Playoffs and either the Cowboys, Giants, or Eagles limp into the playoffs with injuries from the slugfest they give each other the remainder of the season!!!

[Deacon Blues]

Good stuff, thanks. You'll wanna edit the Giants to say 5-3 though.

[CHEF]

Anyone remember the name Grover Klemmer from a Saints/Falcon game I believe the same year of the Hail Mary?

[RadsRock]

Carolina is a bad, but not awful, team.

Not so sure about that. Jake is looking bad, yes. And losing Kemoeatu was huge for them. But otherwise, are they much different from the team that had the #2 NFC seed last year? (and also beat that Saints team twice.)

Really their only "bad" loss is to Buffalo. And yes the Eagles really crushed them. But they played the Falcons close in Atlanta, and now have a convincing win over AZ.

Hopefully, they don't get off the mat... but I don't think they rate as "bad".

Otherwise -- love the KWTPF. One of my favorite reads of the week.

[Galbreath34]

I'm going the other way on the Cards and Eagles games (Chicago and Dallas for me). I can't see any scenario where Chicago passes us to host a game and we own Dallas and they can't buy a playoff win (trust me Jones is trying). Reed and Wisenhunt scare me a bit more than the Urlacher free Bears and Baby Bum, so sue me. Great kwtpf again, though, thumbs up.

[pjgaryjr]

Im more scared of the Sedrick Ellis absence after Turner put a buck fifty on us. That said, Delhomme is no Matt Ryan. Do the Panthers worry me? A little, Im a conditioned Saints fan. The factors St. Dude listed such as short week and big emotional win scare me as well. What I am really concerned with is how well that delayed blitz worked on the sack fumble touchdown. And our kicker(s). Dude, your logic is flawless. Good installment once again.

[BigBuddy]

Originally Posted by Galbreath34

I'm going the other way on the Cards and Eagles games (Chicago and Dallas for me). I can't see any scenario where Chicago passes us to host a game and we own Dallas and they can't buy a playoff win (trust me Jones is trying). Reed and Wisenhunt scare me a bit more than the Urlacher free Bears and Baby Bum, so sue me. Great kwtpf again, though, thumbs up.

You introduce an interesting angle I had never considered in deciding whop to pull for. The "who would you rather play in the playoffs" angle. I like it. It adds another layer to the equation.

[parlorcitysaint]

Originally Posted by redlandssaintsson

Well done. It's too bad you only care about the NFC (being a Saints fan and all) I'd love to see your KWTPF AFC edition. Solid stuff dude.

And exactly why would we care about the AFC? Their standings have absolutely nothing to do with NFC Playoff Seeding.

[brianw37]

great post man!

[mvtrucking]

Great job as usual St Dude, thank you.

[st dude]

Originally Posted by RadsRock

Not so sure about that. Jake is looking bad, yes. And losing Kemoeatu was huge for them. But otherwise, are they much different from the team that had the #2 NFC seed last year? (and also beat that Saints team twice.)

Really their only "bad" loss is to Buffalo. And yes the Eagles really crushed them. But they played the Falcons close in Atlanta, and now have a convincing win over AZ.

Hopefully, they don't get off the mat... but I don't think they rate as "bad".

Otherwise -- love the KWTPF. One of my favorite reads of the week.

I should clarify this since "bad" is really a relative term.

I have said most every week that Carolina is a team that is better than their record. They are not in the category of Oakland, Cleveland, Detroit, St Louis or Tampa. They won twelve games last year with much the same cast and crew. They usually play good defense and run the ball well.

Even when they were winning, they were a team that kind of had the ball bounce their way. The Saints last year had a number of close games they lost while the Panthers were winning close games. In some close games you have to credit the team who found a way to win. In others, one team gets a little lucky or the other team unlucky.

The biggest difference this year for the Panthers is quarterback play. They can survive if Delhomme makes a play here or there and doesnt beat them. They struggle when they have to put the game on his shoulders.

Carolina is a team you want to get up early on (thats a dumb cliche, what team dont you want to get up early on?). It is more important with Carolina because if they get ahead they can relaly slow the game down with their running game. Delhomme is most effective in play action when teams tire from getting run on and bring up safeties. If he can get man coverage on Steve Smith he can just throw it up and get a big play.

The loss of Ellis is big in a game like this. Look for the Saints to crowd the box early and make Jake beat them.

Bad might not be the best word to describe the panthers, but you can not cal them good either. How about "average"? The Dolphins are kind of an average team so we all know in the NFL average teams have their good and bad days.

[davidstvz]

Actually... better job than usual (despite your usual job being just fine). Maybe all this front page exposure has inspired you to step it up a notch

[Cuozzo67]

Very insightful and informative post as always.

If Tampa Bay is going to win a game this season, this actually may be one of their best chances. GB is in that classic, over-hyped "trap game" after the big loss at home to Minnesota. Their QB hurt his ankle, but I think he's going to play. The rookie QB Freeman is making his first start for TB, so it would be an upset. But I was not impressed at all by GB's defense last week. TB might actually win this game.

I think the Giants finally bounce back and beat San Diego. Turner is a lousy HC, and Rivers is still a punk.

I like Philly to beat Dallas.

Who knows about Cards at Bears? My guess is that Chicago wins at home.

It would be great if they did it, but the Deadskins aren't likely to beat the Dirty Birds at home.

Seattle will bounce back against Detroit.

Sir Vince, meet Patrick Willis. I like SF big-time over the Titans.

The infamous Grover Klemmer ... was one of the officials (back judge) when the Saints played at Atlanta in November, 1978. He threw a flag in the Saints end zone on a pass intercepted by Saints safety Ralph McGill. He ruled McGill had interfered with the Falcon receiver. Replay showed just the opposite. Atlanta was awarded a first-down on the Saints 1 yard line. On the last play of the game, Bartkowski threw a play-action pass to TE Jim Mitchell for the winning TD. The score, 20-17, was the same score Atlanta had beaten the Saints on the "Big Ben" miracle pass to Alfred Jackson in the Dome just 2 weeks before. The following week, the NFL Office released an official apology to the Saints acknowledging that the flag thrown by Klemmer was in error. Atlanta finished 9-7 and made the playoffs. The Saints finished 7-9. "Big Ben" and Grover combined to cost the Saints a first-ever winning season and a wildcard playoff berth.

[workhorse]

Originally Posted by CHEF

Anyone remember the name Grover Klemmer from a Saints/Falcon game I believe the same year of the Hail Mary?

I remember the play and the flag, but not the ref. Had to look it up.

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf...exists_in.html

With the Saints leading 17-13 with 10 seconds remaining, Steve Bartkowski lofts a 57-yard "Big Ben"/ Hail Mary pass (choose one) toward the end zone. One Falcon tips it to another, who then makes his way past three Saints on a 10-yard run into the end zone. Falcons 20, Saints 17.

Two weeks later, we're in Atlanta, and with 10 seconds left there is Bartkowski again, this time throwing 26 yards into the end zone. Incomplete pass. Hold on. Yellow flag, thrown by side judge Grover Klemmer. Interference.

[workhorse]

Originally Posted by Cuozzo67

Very insightful and informative post as always.

If Tampa Bay is going to win a game this season, this actually may be one of their best chances. GB is in that classic, over-hyped "trap game" after the big loss at home to Minnesota. Their QB hurt his ankle, but I think he's going to play. The rookie QB Freeman is making his first start for TB, so it would be an upset. But I was not impressed at all by GB's defense last week. TB might actually win this game.

I think the Giants finally bounce back and beat San Diego. Turner is a lousy HC, and Rivers is still a punk.

I like Philly to beat Dallas.

Who knows about Cards at Bears? My guess is that Chicago wins at home.

It would be great if they did it, but the Deadskins aren't likely to beat the Dirty Birds at home.

Seattle will bounce back against Detroit.

Sir Vince, meet Patrick Willis. I like SF big-time over the Titans.

The infamous Grover Klemmer ... was one of the officials (back judge) when the Saints played at Atlanta in November, 1978. He threw a flag in the Saints end zone on a pass intercepted by Saints safety Ralph McGill. He ruled McGill had interfered with the Falcon receiver. Replay showed just the opposite. Atlanta was awarded a first-down on the Saints 1 yard line. On the last play of the game, Bartkowski threw a play-action pass to TE Jim Mitchell for the winning TD. The score, 20-17, was the same score Atlanta had beaten the Saints on the "Big Ben" miracle pass to Alfred Jackson in the Dome just 2 weeks before. The following week, the NFL Office released an official apology to the Saints acknowledging that the flag thrown by Klemmer was in error. Atlanta finished 9-7 and made the playoffs. The Saints finished 7-9. "Big Ben" and Grover combined to cost the Saints a first-ever winning season and a wildcard playoff berth.

We also got one of those offical apologies in 1980 when a phantom offensive pass interference call against the Saints Ike Harris robbed the us of a late 4th quarter win in Miami. This is why I don't care if we get a lucky call now and then now because we've been screwed so many times before.

[Cuozzo67]

Originally Posted by workhorse

I remember the play and the flag, but not the ref. Had to look it up.

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf...exists_in.html

With the Saints leading 17-13 with 10 seconds remaining, Steve Bartkowski lofts a 57-yard "Big Ben"/ Hail Mary pass (choose one) toward the end zone. One Falcon tips it to another, who then makes his way past three Saints on a 10-yard run into the end zone. Falcons 20, Saints 17.

Two weeks later, we're in Atlanta, and with 10 seconds left there is Bartkowski again, this time throwing 26 yards into the end zone. Incomplete pass. Hold on. Yellow flag, thrown by side judge Grover Klemmer. Interference.

I think you're right, Klemmer was the side judge, and not the back judge as I stated earlier. However, I'm certain that Bartkowski's pass was actually intercepted by safety Ralph McGill. The flag got thrown. Atlanta got the ball on the 1. The Saints defense played the run, and Bartkowski threw a short pass in the endzone to TE Jim Mitchell. It's 31 years later, but it still hurts, and it's a great reason to keep hating the Dirty Birds.

[redlandssaintsson]

Originally Posted by parlorcitysaint

And exactly why would we care about the AFC? Their standings have absolutely nothing to do with NFC Playoff Seeding.

Thank you, your insight has changed my life. I'll be sending you a ham.

[Galbreath34]

Send him two pressed against the glass?

[gw504saints]

7-0 Saints vs. Carolina: of course pull for Saints
7-1 Vikings vs. Detroit: Pull against the Vikes
5-2 Cowboys vs. Eagles: Pull against the Cowboys
5-2 Eagles vs. Cowboys: Pull for the Eagles
5-3 Giants vs. San Diego: Pull against the Giants
4-3 Falcons vs. Wash: Pull against the Falcons
4-3 Bears vs. Arizona: Pull for the Bears
4-3 Packers vs. Tampa: Pull against the Packers
4-3 Arizona vs. Chicago: Pull against the Arizona

[Galbreath34]

Originally Posted by gw504saints

7-0 Saints vs. Carolina: of course pull for Saints
7-1 Vikings vs. Detroit: Pull against the Vikes
5-2 Cowboys vs. Eagles: Pull against the Cowboys
5-2 Eagles vs. Cowboys: Pull for the Eagles
5-3 Giants vs. San Diego: Pull against the Giants
4-3 Falcons vs. Wash: Pull against the Falcons
4-3 Bears vs. Arizona: Pull for the Bears
4-3 Packers vs. Tampa: Pull against the Packers
4-3 Arizona vs. Chicago: Pull against the Arizona

It is a big game, props for going the same way

[MSUSousaphone]

I always sift through pages just to find this (actually, I easily use the search feature like everyone should...I just wanted to be dramatic). Great read and it's become a sat night tradition....and I'm always shocked that someone dislikes it. They should move to ATL.

[feoinfunroe]

Originally Posted by st dude

3-4 Carolina @ 7-0 New Orleans - Here is a simple test to determine how long you have followed the Saints. When the Saints had the ball Monday night with less than two minutes left and an eleven point lead were you going through scenarios in your head where we would fumble, the Falcons would recover and score, the Falcons would then recover an onside kick, throw a big ben on the last play, go for two and make it and win in overtime? If you answered yes, you were probably there when John Gilliam took the first kick back.

Hey, st dude, great job as always, but let me address this little part right here, and hope you don't consider it a thread-jack...

Now I was around for Gilliam's run-back, and I probably cried after the game...because I was teething at the time. I've been there for all the disappointing losses, some just a blur, and some that really sting. I've grown up with the Saints always in my life, and even in the best of times (1987-1992, e.g.) I learned that this team could really kick one in the teeth...

But you know what? I noticed something different this year...when down 24-3 against Miami, I did not break the remote control and start contemplating whether-or-not the ceiling fan could hold my weight, and during the Foulcon game, I didn't load my pistol after Thomas muffed the kick.

There's just something different this year. I'm way up there in the top percentile of acting-out, emotional Saints fans, and I've not hardly lost my temper this year... There's a je ne sais quoi with this group, that I can see, and think I can explain, but that's another thread...

I know.../threadjack.