Opinion

Credit: The San Diego Union-Tribune


By Dan Levy - Staff Writer - Saintsreport.com

As a rule, I don't like to do mock drafts because I consider them to be a pointless exercise (outside of just having fun). Without being in the war room with the coaches, scouts, and GM, without seeing the prospect grades, why would I do a predictive model of how the Saints will draft?

That said, I do have my own perspective of how an ideal (and realistic) 2022 draft would play out--something I hope will be a slightly less-pointless exercise.
What follows is what I believe would be the best (and realistically available) choices at each pick, as well as a realistic alternative. I'll follow with a little coach-specific analysis.

Round 1:
16 - Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
19 - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

As I've said before, this would be the absolute best-case scenario for the Saints in the first round, assuming both these players are available (they should be according to their rankings, but any team that takes them earlier will be making a smart move). If they manage to pull this off, there will be early echoes of the iconic 2017 draft.

Alternative: trade up for a QB
I hope they don't do this, but given their strong pursuit of Deshaun Watson and move to load up on first round picks, I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. I discussed in my AMA last week why I would be against trading up for a QB, but if the Saints see Malik Willis as another Deshaun Watson or Kenny Pickett as the next Josh Allen, I could see them making the move (especially if they fall out of the top 10 and the Saints can trade up without losing both 1st round picks).

Again, I wouldn't like it, but it wouldn't be unprecedented for a playoff-caliber team to trade up in the first round for a QB (See: Kansas City Chiefs trading up for Patrick Mahomes).

Round 2:
49 - Jalen Pitre, DB, Baylor

Correlation doesn't = causation, but I can't help but notice that ever since Dennis Allen returned for his 2nd stint with the Saints, they have been straight-up elite when it comes to drafting DBs (Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Williams, CJ Gardner-Johnson, Paulson Adebo). Pitre would fit right in and is a DB in the CJGJ mold. Given Allen's unique base Nickel Big/4-2-5 Defense, you can't have enough guys like that.

Right now, the Saints are set to go into the season with PJ Williams and a possibly suspended Marcus Maye manning the back end. CJGJ could help out in a crunch, but why move him from that slot role where he has such an impact and allows the Saints to stay in a base nickel, even against 21 personnel. They could still make a play for Tyann Mathieu after the draft, but given their cap situation, landing a marquis free agent is going to be tough.

Bottom line: adding Pitre in the 2nd round would give the Saints three day-one starters with their first three picks.

Alternative: Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnatti
Doesn't have the ceiling of Malik Willis, but still a rare talent who was productive in college and could certainly develop into a dynamic starter.

Round 3:
98 - Jelani Woods, TE, Virginia
Elite phsyical specimen with crazy potential. Would bring the type of chess piece/defensive nightmare at TE that the Saints haven't had since Jimmy Graham

Alternative: Channing Tindall, LB, Georgia
Saints stick with the elite athlete/high ceiling pick in the 3rd round, but go defensive. I would love to get Kwon Alexander back, but Pete Werner is the Saints guy at WILL. Kwon will probably look for a home where he will be more heavily featured and can be paid as such.

Round 4:
120 - Zach Tom, OT, Wake Forest
Tom played mostly tackle at Wake, but he has experience inside as well. He's a little light for guard and has more of a center's temperament, but he's smart, athletic, and technically sound, and would instantly add competition to the interior of the Saints OL. If he doesn't outright win a starting job in training camp, he will surely get plenty of playing time given the injuries that tend to plague the OL. At worst, Tom would be a solid backup at T, G, and C.

Alternative: Pierre Strong, RB, South Dakota State
Underrated prospect who plays with a lot more punch than his size would indicate. Given the Saints injuries at the position last year, Strong would be steal in the 4th.

Round 5:
161 - Kyle Philips, WR, UCLA
Saints go with a value pick and add some depth/competition at WR. Philips is a low-risk/high-reward prospect here with Wes Welker-like potential as a slot WR and in the punt return game. He's a true craftsmen when it comes to route-running and finding space, and is sneaky athletic.

Alternative: Micheal Clemons, DE, Texas A&M
Along with DB, the Saints have a knack for drafting stud edge rushers. Clemons is boom or bust, but exactly the type of prospect you'd want to take a chance on at this spot. Physically, he's a Marcus Davenport clone.

Round 6:
194 - Kalon Barnes, CB, Baylor
Saints add depth at CB with a 2nd DB prospect from Baylor. Barnes is a project player but his measurables are through the roof. With 4.2 speed and solid instincts, he could also make his living in the return game.

Alternative: Smoke Monday, S, Auburn
Saints roll the dice on the player with the coolest name in the draft. He also has some solid potential as a role player on the back end and could immediately contribute on special teams.

Coach's Perspective
The big question on everyone's mind (including Jameis Winston's, I'm sure) is, "Will the Saints draft a QB?"

It's hard to tell. The Saints are a playoff team, right now, but they do have some glaring needs. Under normal circumstances, filling these needs could be done through free agency, but given their cap situation, such an approach becomes prohibitive. If the Saints want to compete for a championship this season, they must fill their needs through the draft.

We cannot get inside Dennis Allen's head; we can only judge him by his actions. The Saints went hard in the paint to bring in DeShaun Watson, offering numerous early round draft picks and a nine-figure salary that would have resulted in a cascade of integral players leaving the team in over the next few years. He chose to go elsewhere, and the Saints were fortunately still able to re-sign Jameis Winston, who performed very well last year before he was injured.

But they also loaded up with a second 1st-round draft pick. Now did they do this to address more needs and draft for now, or to stockpile ammunition for moving up and grabbing a top QB? We'll know in a few hours.

I'll leave you on this note:

Perhaps the most overlooked metric for judging a HC is, How does the team perform after he's gone? Every time I've moved on as an HC, from a team with whom I'd spent a few seasons, it has been with the hope (and belief) that I have left them better than they were when I arrived. If the team wins a championship after I am gone, I take a great deal of pride in that.

Sean Payton laid the foundation for a championship team to exist even in his absence. That was his final gift to the Saints. This is a team that, if managed and coached well, will continue to compete for a Super Bowl.

Again, I am not in the war room, but my personal belief, as a coach, is that if the Saints forgo filling their needs through the draft to move up and take pick that is solely for the future, they will be mortgaging this opportunity to continue what Sean Payton started. I mentioned the Kansas City Chiefs earlier, who traded up for Patrick Mahomes following a playoff season when they already had Alex Smith as their starter.

Nobody second-guesses that move, so what would make it any different with the Saints? Again, it all goes back to the salary cap situation. This team does not have the luxury of ignoring a glaring impetus to fill its needs through the draft, unless competing for a championship, right now, is not their top priority.

I hope the coaches and front office agree with my sentiment. And if not, well... I at least hope they prove me wrong.