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Old 04-17-2018, 10:35 AM   #1
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North and South Korea reportedly set to announce official end to war

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/17/nort...nd-to-war.html

Really good news, long overdue. I wonder what this means for the people of North Korea. Do you think they'll be able to travel easier to S. Korea for example? I kind of doubt that'll happen but who knows.
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Old 04-17-2018, 10:42 AM   #2
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It is difficult to imagine a true opening of North Korea that does not quickly devolve into riots and a series of public executions starting with Kim Jong Un.

Once these people see how badly they've been lied to, there will be absolutely no governor on human behavior.

People may think that the KPA and the secret police are Kim's tools for maintaining control, but those organizations are controlled more by fear and discipline than a reasoned support for the regime, and I can't imagine the rank and file are much more informed than the general public in the DPRK. And those guys all have plenty of weapons, and non-coms and junior officers to lead them.

And there's no Nelson Mandela coming out of prison to help everybody stay calm. I don't see how opening that society up isn't a bloodbath.
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Old 04-17-2018, 10:51 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaintJ View Post
It is difficult to imagine a true opening of North Korea that does not quickly devolve into riots and a series of public executions starting with Kim Jong Un.

Once these people see how badly they've been lied to, there will be absolutely no governor on human behavior.

People may think that the KPA and the secret police are Kim's tools for maintaining control, but those organizations are controlled more by fear and discipline than a reasoned support for the regime, and I can't imagine the rank and file are much more informed than the general public in the DPRK. And those guys all have plenty of weapons, and non-coms and junior officers to lead them.

And there's no Nelson Mandela coming out of prison to help everybody stay calm. I don't see how opening that society up isn't a bloodbath.
I hope you're wrong.
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Old 04-17-2018, 11:09 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaintJ View Post
It is difficult to imagine a true opening of North Korea that does not quickly devolve into riots and a series of public executions starting with Kim Jong Un.

Once these people see how badly they've been lied to, there will be absolutely no governor on human behavior.

People may think that the KPA and the secret police are Kim's tools for maintaining control, but those organizations are controlled more by fear and discipline than a reasoned support for the regime, and I can't imagine the rank and file are much more informed than the general public in the DPRK. And those guys all have plenty of weapons, and non-coms and junior officers to lead them.

And there's no Nelson Mandela coming out of prison to help everybody stay calm. I don't see how opening that society up isn't a bloodbath.

I agree that it's hard to imagine Kim opening up the DPRK. Current policy remains to imprison and sometimes execute family members remaining in North Korea after someone escapes. If Kim hadn't shown commitment to that kind of activity, you could try to hope that this is his glasnost moment . . . but there's little reason to think that's true.

It's still symbolic, important, and perhaps the beginning of a slow progression. We'll see.
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Old 04-17-2018, 12:19 PM   #5
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This could be good news. However, their cease fire has a lot of rules, right? by ending that, would that lead to an even less stable North Korea?

does the DMZ suddenly go away?
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Old 04-17-2018, 12:55 PM   #6
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Let's not forget that Un went to school in the 90s in Switzerland and has certainly been more exposed to modern ideas than his predecessors. As time goes on with NK, the more likely there is to be a hierarchy that's exposed to broader ideas because the spread of info is just more prevalent. Optimistically, as awful as the NK leadership is, there's some reason to believe they may not be as bad as previous leadership. One can hope.
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Old 04-17-2018, 01:11 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjcouvi View Post
Let's not forget that Un went to school in the 90s in Switzerland and has certainly been more exposed to modern ideas than his predecessors. As time goes on with NK, the more likely there is to be a hierarchy that's exposed to broader ideas because the spread of info is just more prevalent. Optimistically, as awful as the NK leadership is, there's some reason to believe they may not be as bad as previous leadership. One can hope.
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Old 04-17-2018, 01:13 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saint_Ward View Post
This could be good news. However, their cease fire has a lot of rules, right? by ending that, would that lead to an even less stable North Korea?

does the DMZ suddenly go away?
There's no way it suddenly goes away. They can talk about long-term plans to "return it to its original state" - whatever that means. But DPRK has to maintain a hard border, they'll just turn the guns inward.
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Old 04-17-2018, 01:25 PM   #9
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I hope you're wrong.
So do I, so do I.

Only theoretical possibility is that Xi and the PRC grant him a luxurious exile, and take over the country militarily in cooperation with the DPRK generals, and begin a slow opening/Marshall Plan, in exchange for massive financial commitments from South Korea, the U.S. and Japan to help fund the operation, something along the lines of what the Allied powers co-ordinated in Germany after WWII.

In other words, an utter and complete fantasy not even Philip K. Dick could have come up with.
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Old 04-19-2018, 10:17 AM   #10
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https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/19/asia/...ntl/index.html

There is more positive news coming out of this.

Looks like the North Sending Athletes to the Winter Olympics, along with China finally doing serious trade sanctions, along with Trump's willingness to talk has lead to an about face. We can argue over what had the most impact (probably China FINALLY doing something), but it's a good development.
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Old 04-19-2018, 11:03 AM   #11
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Quote:
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https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/19/asia/...ntl/index.html

There is more positive news coming out of this.

Looks like the North Sending Athletes to the Winter Olympics, along with China finally doing serious trade sanctions, along with Trump's willingness to talk has lead to an about face. We can argue over what had the most impact (probably China FINALLY doing something), but it's a good development.
The DPRK has a history that goes back to the 90s of playing pariah for a while, so that they can push development of their nuclear and delivery program - but then after making strides, they come back to the international community to talk and, in some cases, make concessions. Then things quiet down and they get back to work on their program. New allegations arise, and new sanctions - but they press on. Then after reaching (we think) internal milestones, they start the process over again.

Certainly the Olympics participation was positive but not unprecedented. The war and border talks are, but we don't really know what they're really willing to do. And with the Trump talks, again, it requires close analysis of what they're actually willing to do.

At this point, we've seen this playbook before from DPRK. The real question remains whether Pyongyang is willing to truly give up its weapons-grade nuclear activities or it's ICBM program. And, hand-in-hand with that question, is whether the US or regional interests are able to give Kim the kind of peace-of-mind (legitimate security against regime change) that would allow DPRK to consider that kind of move.
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