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First, let me give some disclaimers:
--I assume that we will hire Ed Donatell as our defensive coordinator.
--This mock assumes that we will have our second rounder returned, and I am of the feeling it will be. This mock also assumes that we still have our sixth round pick since there has not been any clarity on this issue.
Second, we are currently $14.7 million over the cap and will need to cut some players to get under the cap. The good thing is, that with our changing scheme and with their lack of production, it does not hurt us as much as it might have done only three seasons ago.
I expect the following players to be released:
--Will Smith-saves us $11.1 million (cap figure: $14.5 million minus the prorated bonus of $6.8 million split over 2013 and 2014)
--Jonathan Vilma-saves us $6 million (cap figure: $8.6 million minus $2.6 million prorated bonus for 2013)
--Roman Harper-saves us $5.35 million (cap figure: $7.1 million minus the prorated bonus of $3.5 million, which would be split over 2013 and 2014)
--Will Herring-saves us $1.6 million (cap figure: $1.9 million minus prorated bonus)
Total Cap Savings: $24.05 million
Cap Space Generated: $9.35 million
Small caveat: I really love Pierre Thomas, and appreciate what he brings to our offense. He is arguably the best screen-catching RB in the league. I want him back and will not make him part of my expected cuts. But I will say that it will not surprise me if he is released. Releasing him saves the team $2.5 million, and it was rather telling to me that he began to see less time toward the end of the year. What I think will happen is that the team will re-sign Chris Ivory, and may look to Cadet to fill Thomas' role. Or you might even see them draft a RB or find one in FA. I know they are said to like Christine Michael out of Texas A&M. I know this is an unpopular move and given how hard he has worked, it is hard for me to predict. But I am just saying that I would not surprise me.
Small caveat 2: David Hawthorne is an interesting case for 2013. His current cap figure for 2013 is $4.8 million. If he is released, we would be charged $3 million over 2013 and 2014 in prorated bonus. That would free up $3.3 million for this season. Hawthorne was oft-injured in 2012 and struggled a bit early on. Toward the end of the season, he did perform better at SLB. My thinking is that we will probably hold on to him, though it would not surprise me if he is cut. The likely move will be to restructure his contract or even ask him to take a paycut. In either case, the Saints might will likely be able to free up the $3 million or so just as they would by releasing him. The difference is, we would still have a proven player around to compete in the middle with whomever we bring in at the position.
Interestingly enough, if both Thomas and Hawthorne were released, it would give us an additional $5.8 million in cap savings, bringing our available cap space to $15.15 million. Store that away.
The following players are likely to have their contracts restructured:
Drew Brees
Broderick Bunkley
Jahri Evans
David Hawthorne
***Remember, a restructure is not a pay-cut.***
In free agency, I think the Saints should target the following players:
Brandon Albert, OT He's one of the best pass-blocking OTs in the league, and is equally adept at run-blocking. He does have to become more consistent, particularly in his technique. That said, I am of the belief that he will be slightly cheaper than Jermon Bushrod. I am thinking a 5-year, $38 million. $10 million signing bonus and a total of $18 million guaranteed. 2013 cap figure: $4.5 million (base salary of $2.5 million + prorated bonus).
Jairus Byrd, S Solid, ball-hawking safety who would allow us to move Malcolm Jenkins to SS, where I think he might actually be a better player. While Ed Reed is very tempting, I just think that it is important to find a long-term solution to our safety issue. I also considered Dashon Goldson, but Byrd is younger and I think will cost less. I am thinking 4 year $24 million. Bonus of $8 million and $12 million in guarantees. 2013 cap figure: $3.5 million ($1.5 million in base salary plus prorated bonus)
Larry Grant, ILB Call this our Chris Chamberlain signing but I think Grant is a talented player who is scratching the surface. At the very least, he would provide us with depth in the middle and a person who understands Ed Donatell's system. On the other hand, he could emerge as a starter who challenges David Hawthorne for a starting position. He did very well for the Niners when Patrick Willis went down with injury and he's just reaching his prime. I am thinking a contract of 3 years, $5.4 million gets him here. $1.2 million in bonus and a $300, 000 roster bonus for 2014 and 2015. 2013 cap figure: $1.15 million (base salary of $750K plus prorated bonus)
Shaun Phillips, OLB This is an insurance signing. Phillips is not young but has experience in a 3-4. If we are going to make the switch to a 3-4, we will need depth. Right now, we have Martez Wilson and Junior Galette at OLB. By signing Phillips and drafting someone like Mingo or Jordan, we would go into the season with some quality depth at the position. I would expect Mingo/Jordan to start opposite either Wilson or Galette. But Phillips would be there for us in a pinch if necessary. The hope would be that we can find another young player to emerge. But if not, then Phillips is capable. I am a thinking a 1 year deal at $2 million.
Total Costs of Free Agent Signings for 2013: $11.15 million
Small caveat 3: I was tempted to have us target Mike Wallace who I think would give us the deep threat at WR that we missed with the departure of Robert Meachem and the decline of Devery Henderson. The emergence of Joseph Morgan last season is expected to continue. But our offense tends to rely on having two deep threats that help to open things up underneath. I do not think Wallace will get as much money as the Steelers offered him last season (5-year, $50 million). A contract in line with Andre Brown's deal of 5 years, $42.5 million is more reasonable. And seeing as though we might be able to have as much as $15-20 million in cap space, if not much more if the savings from the restructures are significant.
But for now, I chose not to make that move if only because I think it will be important to begin thinking ahead to some of the future contracts we will have to handle such as Jimmy Graham, Malcolm Jenkins, Cameron Jordan, Patrick Robinson, and Mark Ingram. These are all players who have either emerged or are expected to emerge. So, I think it might be smarter to forego a player like Wallace and build through the draft. There are players like Tavon Austin, and especially Markus Wheaton and Quinton Patton who might be able to offer to us what Wallace does at a far cheaper price.
Small caveat 4: There are a ton of tights ends in free agency, including Jared Cook, Brandon Myers, Dustin Keller, Martellus Bennett, Ed Dickson, Dennis Pitta, Delanie Walker, and Fred Davis. I really like Cook and think he and Graham would be monsters together. But I am going to hold off on projecting a signing here. We still have to sign Jimmy Graham and I think our attention should be on locking him up. We can always get a TE in the draft where there seems to be some depth at the position.
I expect the following players to be re-signed:
Chris Ivory, RB
Brian de La Puente, OC
Justin Drescher, LS
Rafael Bush, S
Brian Robinson, OT
Eric Olsen, OG
Chase Daniel, OB
Elbert Mack, CB
I am not sure where I stand on Jonathan Casillas and Ramon Humber. A decision has to be made as to whether or not each player fits into the new 3-4 scheme. Casillas played well down the stretch last season but I think it might be time to move on with a player like Larry Grant.
Saints Draft Selections
1. Barkevious Mingo, OLB, Louisiana State University (alternative pick--Dion Jordan, OLB, University of Oregon)
Mingo might not be on the board when we pick though this draft is interesting in that you have a significant group of players projected all over the first round. If Mingo falls, I think he should be the pick. His initial step at the snap of the ball is as quick as I have seen. He is a tad more athlete than football player at this point, but I do not see that as the knock some others see it as. He works hard and should be a very productive player. His ceiling is as high as any player in this draft and I think he could play the Aldon Smith role for us. The same can be said about Dion Jordan in many ways who excels not only as a pass-rusher but also in coverage. Should either of these players fall to us, we have to consider taking one of them.
2. Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia University (alternative pick--Jordan Poyer, CB, University of Oregon)
Tantalizing speed, incredible change of direction, soft hands, great return ability...I can go on and on about Tavon Austin. I think he's a first round talent who will fall into the early to middle second round just because of his size. There is also some scuttlebutt that teams were upset that he pulled out of the Senior Bowl. Here's how I see Austin. He is a player who can come in and give us another deep threat though he is equally good in the slot. I also see this pick as thinking ahead a bit. Sproles is entering the third year of his deal and will be 30 at the start of the season. By no means does that mean he is done, but we have to start thinking ahead to his possible replacement should he get a tad too expensive for us.
Austin does have experience lining up in the backfield and doing many of the things that Sproles does for us. For the immediate future, both would cause headaches for defenses and free Jimmy Graham up a bit more as he took on too many double teams this season. Austin would also give us a needed boost in our return game.
3. Brandon Williams, NT, Missouri Southern State University (alternative pick, Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon State University)
Very nimble big man, great character, hard worker. He is in a good shape and works very hard. Very nimble for his size and does show the ability to rush the passer. I think he would be the ideal NT for our 3-4 scheme and might emerge as another small school gem. He looked really good this past week at the senior bowl, solidifying a third round grade. With continued progress, he might creep up higher.
Markus Wheaton is a Mike Wallace clone but shows the ability to catch in traffic. He has outstanding speed and is able to adjust to the ball in air. I think this kid will be a very solid player at the next level.
4. Leon McFadden, CB, San Diego State University (alternative pick, Michael Buchanan, OLB)
The Saints showed some interests in McFadden at the Senior Bowl. He responded with a good week of practice and really looked the part. I think he is good prospect for Donatell to develop.
Buchanan may be a smart pick if we do not add Shaun Phillips. He would give us another OLB in our new 3-4 scheme.
5. Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State University (alternative pick, Kwame Geathers, DT, University of Georgia)
I would love to see us target a TE in free agency but I do like the depth in the draft at the position. Escobar has soft hands and would add a nice wrinkle to our offense. I would prefer Jordan Reed who reminds me a lot of Hernandez with NE and could play that joker role for us, or dare I say the old-Billy Miller role. But with so many critical needs early on, I think it is wiser to address the position in the middle rounds. Escobar is a guy I think many around here will like.
6. JJ Wilcox, SS, Georgia Southern University
Wilcox had a very solid week of practice during the senior bowl and may push himself up into the 3-4 round. For now, I will keep him here. Even if we move Jenkins to SS or nickel CB, we will need quality depth and an injection of young talent to develop. By adding Wilcox and signing Byrd, we would head into the season with Byrd, Jenkins, Abdul-Quddus, Bush and Wilcox as our safeties. To me, that would be an upgrade.
7. Mark Jackson, OG, Glenville State University
With the last pick, I thought, why not take a flyer on an under-the-radar player who might just surprise. Jackson is a HUGE man, standing 6-6, 341. But he has good feet and is more fluid than you might expect for a person of his stature. He will have to improve his technique and be taught not to play so high. But he has raw power and is a great drive blocker. He is also, like Brandon Williams, a tireless worker who plays snap-to-whistle. Any time you have a big man, you want someone who will not take plays off as consistency is more valuable than up-and-down greatness.
--I assume that we will hire Ed Donatell as our defensive coordinator.
--This mock assumes that we will have our second rounder returned, and I am of the feeling it will be. This mock also assumes that we still have our sixth round pick since there has not been any clarity on this issue.
Second, we are currently $14.7 million over the cap and will need to cut some players to get under the cap. The good thing is, that with our changing scheme and with their lack of production, it does not hurt us as much as it might have done only three seasons ago.
I expect the following players to be released:
--Will Smith-saves us $11.1 million (cap figure: $14.5 million minus the prorated bonus of $6.8 million split over 2013 and 2014)
--Jonathan Vilma-saves us $6 million (cap figure: $8.6 million minus $2.6 million prorated bonus for 2013)
--Roman Harper-saves us $5.35 million (cap figure: $7.1 million minus the prorated bonus of $3.5 million, which would be split over 2013 and 2014)
--Will Herring-saves us $1.6 million (cap figure: $1.9 million minus prorated bonus)
Total Cap Savings: $24.05 million
Cap Space Generated: $9.35 million
Small caveat: I really love Pierre Thomas, and appreciate what he brings to our offense. He is arguably the best screen-catching RB in the league. I want him back and will not make him part of my expected cuts. But I will say that it will not surprise me if he is released. Releasing him saves the team $2.5 million, and it was rather telling to me that he began to see less time toward the end of the year. What I think will happen is that the team will re-sign Chris Ivory, and may look to Cadet to fill Thomas' role. Or you might even see them draft a RB or find one in FA. I know they are said to like Christine Michael out of Texas A&M. I know this is an unpopular move and given how hard he has worked, it is hard for me to predict. But I am just saying that I would not surprise me.
Small caveat 2: David Hawthorne is an interesting case for 2013. His current cap figure for 2013 is $4.8 million. If he is released, we would be charged $3 million over 2013 and 2014 in prorated bonus. That would free up $3.3 million for this season. Hawthorne was oft-injured in 2012 and struggled a bit early on. Toward the end of the season, he did perform better at SLB. My thinking is that we will probably hold on to him, though it would not surprise me if he is cut. The likely move will be to restructure his contract or even ask him to take a paycut. In either case, the Saints might will likely be able to free up the $3 million or so just as they would by releasing him. The difference is, we would still have a proven player around to compete in the middle with whomever we bring in at the position.
Interestingly enough, if both Thomas and Hawthorne were released, it would give us an additional $5.8 million in cap savings, bringing our available cap space to $15.15 million. Store that away.
The following players are likely to have their contracts restructured:
Drew Brees
Broderick Bunkley
Jahri Evans
David Hawthorne
***Remember, a restructure is not a pay-cut.***
In free agency, I think the Saints should target the following players:
Brandon Albert, OT He's one of the best pass-blocking OTs in the league, and is equally adept at run-blocking. He does have to become more consistent, particularly in his technique. That said, I am of the belief that he will be slightly cheaper than Jermon Bushrod. I am thinking a 5-year, $38 million. $10 million signing bonus and a total of $18 million guaranteed. 2013 cap figure: $4.5 million (base salary of $2.5 million + prorated bonus).
Jairus Byrd, S Solid, ball-hawking safety who would allow us to move Malcolm Jenkins to SS, where I think he might actually be a better player. While Ed Reed is very tempting, I just think that it is important to find a long-term solution to our safety issue. I also considered Dashon Goldson, but Byrd is younger and I think will cost less. I am thinking 4 year $24 million. Bonus of $8 million and $12 million in guarantees. 2013 cap figure: $3.5 million ($1.5 million in base salary plus prorated bonus)
Larry Grant, ILB Call this our Chris Chamberlain signing but I think Grant is a talented player who is scratching the surface. At the very least, he would provide us with depth in the middle and a person who understands Ed Donatell's system. On the other hand, he could emerge as a starter who challenges David Hawthorne for a starting position. He did very well for the Niners when Patrick Willis went down with injury and he's just reaching his prime. I am thinking a contract of 3 years, $5.4 million gets him here. $1.2 million in bonus and a $300, 000 roster bonus for 2014 and 2015. 2013 cap figure: $1.15 million (base salary of $750K plus prorated bonus)
Shaun Phillips, OLB This is an insurance signing. Phillips is not young but has experience in a 3-4. If we are going to make the switch to a 3-4, we will need depth. Right now, we have Martez Wilson and Junior Galette at OLB. By signing Phillips and drafting someone like Mingo or Jordan, we would go into the season with some quality depth at the position. I would expect Mingo/Jordan to start opposite either Wilson or Galette. But Phillips would be there for us in a pinch if necessary. The hope would be that we can find another young player to emerge. But if not, then Phillips is capable. I am a thinking a 1 year deal at $2 million.
Total Costs of Free Agent Signings for 2013: $11.15 million
Small caveat 3: I was tempted to have us target Mike Wallace who I think would give us the deep threat at WR that we missed with the departure of Robert Meachem and the decline of Devery Henderson. The emergence of Joseph Morgan last season is expected to continue. But our offense tends to rely on having two deep threats that help to open things up underneath. I do not think Wallace will get as much money as the Steelers offered him last season (5-year, $50 million). A contract in line with Andre Brown's deal of 5 years, $42.5 million is more reasonable. And seeing as though we might be able to have as much as $15-20 million in cap space, if not much more if the savings from the restructures are significant.
But for now, I chose not to make that move if only because I think it will be important to begin thinking ahead to some of the future contracts we will have to handle such as Jimmy Graham, Malcolm Jenkins, Cameron Jordan, Patrick Robinson, and Mark Ingram. These are all players who have either emerged or are expected to emerge. So, I think it might be smarter to forego a player like Wallace and build through the draft. There are players like Tavon Austin, and especially Markus Wheaton and Quinton Patton who might be able to offer to us what Wallace does at a far cheaper price.
Small caveat 4: There are a ton of tights ends in free agency, including Jared Cook, Brandon Myers, Dustin Keller, Martellus Bennett, Ed Dickson, Dennis Pitta, Delanie Walker, and Fred Davis. I really like Cook and think he and Graham would be monsters together. But I am going to hold off on projecting a signing here. We still have to sign Jimmy Graham and I think our attention should be on locking him up. We can always get a TE in the draft where there seems to be some depth at the position.
I expect the following players to be re-signed:
Chris Ivory, RB
Brian de La Puente, OC
Justin Drescher, LS
Rafael Bush, S
Brian Robinson, OT
Eric Olsen, OG
Chase Daniel, OB
Elbert Mack, CB
I am not sure where I stand on Jonathan Casillas and Ramon Humber. A decision has to be made as to whether or not each player fits into the new 3-4 scheme. Casillas played well down the stretch last season but I think it might be time to move on with a player like Larry Grant.
Saints Draft Selections
1. Barkevious Mingo, OLB, Louisiana State University (alternative pick--Dion Jordan, OLB, University of Oregon)
Mingo might not be on the board when we pick though this draft is interesting in that you have a significant group of players projected all over the first round. If Mingo falls, I think he should be the pick. His initial step at the snap of the ball is as quick as I have seen. He is a tad more athlete than football player at this point, but I do not see that as the knock some others see it as. He works hard and should be a very productive player. His ceiling is as high as any player in this draft and I think he could play the Aldon Smith role for us. The same can be said about Dion Jordan in many ways who excels not only as a pass-rusher but also in coverage. Should either of these players fall to us, we have to consider taking one of them.
2. Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia University (alternative pick--Jordan Poyer, CB, University of Oregon)
Tantalizing speed, incredible change of direction, soft hands, great return ability...I can go on and on about Tavon Austin. I think he's a first round talent who will fall into the early to middle second round just because of his size. There is also some scuttlebutt that teams were upset that he pulled out of the Senior Bowl. Here's how I see Austin. He is a player who can come in and give us another deep threat though he is equally good in the slot. I also see this pick as thinking ahead a bit. Sproles is entering the third year of his deal and will be 30 at the start of the season. By no means does that mean he is done, but we have to start thinking ahead to his possible replacement should he get a tad too expensive for us.
Austin does have experience lining up in the backfield and doing many of the things that Sproles does for us. For the immediate future, both would cause headaches for defenses and free Jimmy Graham up a bit more as he took on too many double teams this season. Austin would also give us a needed boost in our return game.
3. Brandon Williams, NT, Missouri Southern State University (alternative pick, Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon State University)
Very nimble big man, great character, hard worker. He is in a good shape and works very hard. Very nimble for his size and does show the ability to rush the passer. I think he would be the ideal NT for our 3-4 scheme and might emerge as another small school gem. He looked really good this past week at the senior bowl, solidifying a third round grade. With continued progress, he might creep up higher.
Markus Wheaton is a Mike Wallace clone but shows the ability to catch in traffic. He has outstanding speed and is able to adjust to the ball in air. I think this kid will be a very solid player at the next level.
4. Leon McFadden, CB, San Diego State University (alternative pick, Michael Buchanan, OLB)
The Saints showed some interests in McFadden at the Senior Bowl. He responded with a good week of practice and really looked the part. I think he is good prospect for Donatell to develop.
Buchanan may be a smart pick if we do not add Shaun Phillips. He would give us another OLB in our new 3-4 scheme.
5. Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State University (alternative pick, Kwame Geathers, DT, University of Georgia)
I would love to see us target a TE in free agency but I do like the depth in the draft at the position. Escobar has soft hands and would add a nice wrinkle to our offense. I would prefer Jordan Reed who reminds me a lot of Hernandez with NE and could play that joker role for us, or dare I say the old-Billy Miller role. But with so many critical needs early on, I think it is wiser to address the position in the middle rounds. Escobar is a guy I think many around here will like.
6. JJ Wilcox, SS, Georgia Southern University
Wilcox had a very solid week of practice during the senior bowl and may push himself up into the 3-4 round. For now, I will keep him here. Even if we move Jenkins to SS or nickel CB, we will need quality depth and an injection of young talent to develop. By adding Wilcox and signing Byrd, we would head into the season with Byrd, Jenkins, Abdul-Quddus, Bush and Wilcox as our safeties. To me, that would be an upgrade.
7. Mark Jackson, OG, Glenville State University
With the last pick, I thought, why not take a flyer on an under-the-radar player who might just surprise. Jackson is a HUGE man, standing 6-6, 341. But he has good feet and is more fluid than you might expect for a person of his stature. He will have to improve his technique and be taught not to play so high. But he has raw power and is a great drive blocker. He is also, like Brandon Williams, a tireless worker who plays snap-to-whistle. Any time you have a big man, you want someone who will not take plays off as consistency is more valuable than up-and-down greatness.