bclemms
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Been trying to wait to start this thread for a few days since it is still very far out and very early. Typically I don't like to talk about storms this far out unless models are very consistent. NHC is putting development at 5 days at 70%.
Long range models, the GFS, CMC, Euro and CFS have all indicated tropical development in the Caribbean and leaning towards entering the gulf. The GFS is the only model that extends farther out than 240 hours. It has had a major hurricane in the Gulf every single run for days now.
Please keep in mind models are extremely unreliable this far out and odds of actually having a gulf storm this far out are still quite small. Actual landfall would be much smaller and strength is also unreliable at this point. There is just a very strong signal in place that should be monitored in the coming week.
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10/03 - Updated original post with more maps/links ~primadox
NHC Products
NHC Home
Tropical Weather Outlook
Tropical Weather Discussion
Hurricane Matthew Public Advisory
Hurricane Matthew Forecast Advisory
Hurricane Matthew Forecast Discussion
Hurricane Matthew Wind Speed Probabilities
Hurricane Matthew US Watches & Warnings
NHC Local Statements
Storm Surge Watch/Warnings Graphic (interactive map)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map (interactive map)
Other helpful links
Saintsreport Hurricane Preparedness Tips
Satellite Products
Link to NOAA page with numerous animated images: Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters - Satellite Products and Services Division - Office of Satellite and Product Operations
Visual (animated)
Water Vapor
Infrared
Radar
from wunderground.com:
CURRENT MAPS/FORECASTS/MODELS:
NHC projected track with watches/warnings
Warnings and surface winds
NHC wind speed probabilities
NHC marine forecast & analysis
Computer models (courtesy of wunderground.com):
Ensemble models (courtesy of wunderground.com):
Model verifications (courtesy of wunderground.com):
5-day forecast (courtesy of wunderground.com):
Storm history (courtesy of wunderground.com):
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Long range models, the GFS, CMC, Euro and CFS have all indicated tropical development in the Caribbean and leaning towards entering the gulf. The GFS is the only model that extends farther out than 240 hours. It has had a major hurricane in the Gulf every single run for days now.
Please keep in mind models are extremely unreliable this far out and odds of actually having a gulf storm this far out are still quite small. Actual landfall would be much smaller and strength is also unreliable at this point. There is just a very strong signal in place that should be monitored in the coming week.
****************************************************************************
10/03 - Updated original post with more maps/links ~primadox
NHC Products
NHC Home
Tropical Weather Outlook
Tropical Weather Discussion
Hurricane Matthew Public Advisory
Hurricane Matthew Forecast Advisory
Hurricane Matthew Forecast Discussion
Hurricane Matthew Wind Speed Probabilities
Hurricane Matthew US Watches & Warnings
NHC Local Statements
Storm Surge Watch/Warnings Graphic (interactive map)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map (interactive map)
Other helpful links
Saintsreport Hurricane Preparedness Tips
Satellite Products
Link to NOAA page with numerous animated images: Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters - Satellite Products and Services Division - Office of Satellite and Product Operations
Visual (animated)
Water Vapor
Infrared
Radar
from wunderground.com:
CURRENT MAPS/FORECASTS/MODELS:
NHC projected track with watches/warnings
Warnings and surface winds
NHC wind speed probabilities
NHC marine forecast & analysis
Computer models (courtesy of wunderground.com):
Ensemble models (courtesy of wunderground.com):
Model verifications (courtesy of wunderground.com):
5-day forecast (courtesy of wunderground.com):
Storm history (courtesy of wunderground.com):
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