Offline
So do the latest advanced analytics. Tonight, Football Outsiders released their Week 11 ratings.
In their weighted team ratings, the Saints moved up to #12 overall and 7th best in the NFC. But even stronger -- in their estimated wins (explained below) -- the Saints project to have 6.5 wins.
According to the FO analysis, the Saints have played the fifth toughest schedule to date but will only face the 18th toughest schedule from here on out.
If this team could play a tiny better better in key moments (see Raiders and Broncos games), they could be a contender.
In their weighted team ratings, the Saints moved up to #12 overall and 7th best in the NFC. But even stronger -- in their estimated wins (explained below) -- the Saints project to have 6.5 wins.
According to the FO analysis, the Saints have played the fifth toughest schedule to date but will only face the 18th toughest schedule from here on out.
If this team could play a tiny better better in key moments (see Raiders and Broncos games), they could be a contender.
ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.