USA Today article of analysis of Saints penalty disparity (1 Viewer)


All of that is still just numbers comparing our penalties to opponents penalties and then coming to grandiose conclusions: " This is statistically forking impossible. " he says without doing any statistical analysis at all.

In order to determine statistical significance, he would need to determine the average number of penalties over a given time period for every team in the league, then he would need to control for as many variables as he could and determine both the mean and standard deviation for penalties for and against. Then he would need to compare this to the actual numbers called on the saints this year in order to allow him to determine a confidence interval that we are in fact outside of normal territory. At no point will the conclusion be "statistically forking impossible", at best it would be "very unlikely".

*Edit: Apologies mods, I was not trying to trigger the swear filter, simply quoting from the article.
 
To the guys that are talking about small sample sizes, I understand and agree. But the fact is the staggering number of big plays taken away by penalties against the Saints, both offensively and defensively. In particular, the three game stretch Atl-Tampa-Car was gruesome. Is it just a coincidence that most of the flags came on big plays? Again, you could make an argument here about sample size and even cause-effect.
But then there were calls that have nothing to do with statistics. For example, the two absurd OPI called on Cook and Thomas. Both reviewed, both upheld. A big play and a 2 point conversion. Even the commentators were easy that they should have been reversed. And even by the absurdly strict NFL standards for reversing, they should have been reversed (clear and obvious wrong call, the defenders initiated contacts).
Another example, against Tampa, Cam Jordan being hold from behind while running free at Winston for a drive-ending sack. Cam comes to a stop because is held. No other is within 5-10 yards from them, so the holding is clearly visible in real time. But the refs call a PI against PJ Wiliams!!
So maybe your statistical argument has a point, but couple it with blatantly biased calls, and you have the whole picture.
 
All of that is still just numbers comparing our penalties to opponents penalties and then coming to grandiose conclusions: " This is statistically forking impossible. " he says without doing any statistical analysis at all.

In order to determine statistical significance, he would need to determine the average number of penalties over a given time period for every team in the league, then he would need to control for as many variables as he could and determine both the mean and standard deviation for penalties for and against. Then he would need to compare this to the actual numbers called on the saints this year in order to allow him to determine a confidence interval that we are in fact outside of normal territory. At no point will the conclusion be "statistically forking impossible", at best it would be "very unlikely".

*Edit: Apologies mods, I was not trying to trigger the swear filter, simply quoting from the article.
@SaintJ Care to defend your analysis?
 
All of that is still just numbers comparing our penalties to opponents penalties and then coming to grandiose conclusions: " This is statistically forking impossible. " he says without doing any statistical analysis at all.

In order to determine statistical significance, he would need to determine the average number of penalties over a given time period for every team in the league, then he would need to control for as many variables as he could and determine both the mean and standard deviation for penalties for and against. Then he would need to compare this to the actual numbers called on the saints this year in order to allow him to determine a confidence interval that we are in fact outside of normal territory. At no point will the conclusion be "statistically forking impossible", at best it would be "very unlikely".

*Edit: Apologies mods, I was not trying to trigger the swear filter, simply quoting from the article.
How many times in your life have you seen TWO defensive PIs for ELEVEN yards in TWELVE games? That’s statistically forking very unlikely.
 
If you got 9 sacks in a game, I think that might be an indicator that they absolutely didn't hold.
I think it's more of an indicator that we should have had 12 sacks. I saw Jordan mugged twice around the neck and Hendrickson straight up tackled on one of Matt Ryan's runs.
 
I said as much... There is no consistency in calls... but I watch more than just Saints football... and that's a problem in every game. I watch it every week in every game... this weekend, I watched the Refs decide the Chargers / Denver game with a gifted last second PI call against the Chargers with 3 secs left on an un-catch-able jump ball.... those types of plays and calls have been inconsistent across the board all year...

I am not saying that the Refs are not bad, or inconsistent... They are.

I am saying that raw number of penalties for or against us doesn't mean much without context and substance...

And from what I have seen... we are very undisciplined in regards to penalties, we do commit a ton of legitimate penalties, and our opponents have to play near mistake free football to beat us...

That's just as much as logical deduction to explain these numbers as ... "the refs are just out to get us".

That's all I am saying.
It doesn't have to be an either/or. Both can be going on - horrible officiating in general and an inordinate unbalance of calls between us and our opponents. The lack of holding calls against our stout D line verses holding calls on our good offensive line really reeks of bias.
 
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It doesn't have to be an either/or. Both can be going on - horrible officiating in general and an inordinate unbalance of calls between us and our opponents. The lack of holding calls against our stout line versed holding calls on our good offensive line really reeks of bias.

??????
 
To the guys that are talking about small sample sizes, I understand and agree. But the fact is the staggering number of big plays taken away by penalties against the Saints, both offensively and defensively. In particular, the three game stretch Atl-Tampa-Car was gruesome. Is it just a coincidence that most of the flags came on big plays? Again, you could make an argument here about sample size and even cause-effect.
But then there were calls that have nothing to do with statistics. For example, the two absurd OPI called on Cook and Thomas. Both reviewed, both upheld. A big play and a 2 point conversion. Even the commentators were easy that they should have been reversed. And even by the absurdly strict NFL standards for reversing, they should have been reversed (clear and obvious wrong call, the defenders initiated contacts).
Another example, against Tampa, Cam Jordan being hold from behind while running free at Winston for a drive-ending sack. Cam comes to a stop because is held. No other is within 5-10 yards from them, so the holding is clearly visible in real time. But the refs call a PI against PJ Wiliams!!
So maybe your statistical argument has a point, but couple it with blatantly biased calls, and you have the whole picture.

That exact Tampa play burns in my mind and ultimately tells the tale why statistics will never be an accurate representation of what we see. There are so many penalties that are uncalled on the opponents we play.

I agree, this happens to all teams on occasion but our calls and non-calls are disproportionate compared to the rest of the league. At the end of the day, something just doesn’t seem right.

We don’t all fit in the conspiracy theory/nfl is totally rigged but there is a large number of people who see a discrepancy in calls and the statistics are trending in a direction that seems to confirm what we see.
 
I am not missing it. I agree they can be manipulated, I just do not believe that they are. Moaning about it seems intellectually dishonest to me, because none of these posters are going to complain if we win the superbowl.

It seems really simple, either someone has the capacity and power to influence the outcome of nfl games and they are doing it, in which case the league is basically scripted and our 2009 superbowl victory is a farce.

Or there is no conspiracy behind it and the mistakes and disparity is due to chance. No one even seems to be considering this. Is this the biggest disparity in the league? Is it the biggest one ever, is it bigger than the biggest disparity in most years? All of these seem like valid questions that no one is even attempting to answer. Instead we keep harping on about refs and pass interference like a broken record.

Hell, I'll still complain about ridiculously slanted officiating if it's warranted. The point isn't whether the officiating is weighted. The real point is that officials are rarely, if ever, held accountable for poor performance. Neither the officials themselves, nor the NFL are holding anyone accountable for incorrect calls. They're inconsistent at best, and malicious at worst. I'm actually a bit worried that some of these officials have been compromised by either their own gambling or someone paying them off to get desired results. Fixing outcomes would be too obvious, but slanting scores to cover or miss point spreads are easier to manipulate.

And for people arguing it can't happen, it has happened in the NBA, and it wouldn't shock me if it's happening in the NFL.

Regardless, it's obvious that there are wildly varied interpretations of the pi replays. And I firmly believe the reason for this is officials resent being put on the spot and having their calls questioned. Their goal seems to be that they want the rule to go away.

All I want are fairly called games. I just don't see that happening from where I sit
 
If you got 9 sacks in a game, I think that might be an indicator that they absolutely didn't hold.

I saw at the very least, 3 uncalled holds on Cam Jordan and 2 on Davenport. Maybe they played through those holds, but they should have been penalties nonetheless. Pretty sure I recall one of our guys getting literally tackled from behind when trying to get to Ryan, yet no hold.

Yet, there are holds called on us for some of the exact same things the Falcons OL did. It's not called evenly. That much is clear. I don't claim to know their motivations, but something is clearly influencing how they're calling games.

So I completely disagree with your assertion.
 
I saw at the very least, 3 uncalled holds on Cam Jordan and 2 on Davenport. Maybe they played through those holds, but they should have been penalties nonetheless. Pretty sure I recall one of our guys getting literally tackled from behind when trying to get to Ryan, yet no hold.

Yet, there are holds called on us for some of the exact same things the Falcons OL did. It's not called evenly. That much is clear. I don't claim to know their motivations, but something is clearly influencing how they're calling games.

So I completely disagree with your assertion.
I saw the same thing. Just finished rewatching the game and they were holding nearly every time we got pressure but didn't get the sack. Hendrickson was straight up tackled on one of Ryan's runs.
 
interesting conclusion.

and one that bears delving into.

The one thing that could make this ALL go away - the NFL/Refs pull back on this current tack, and we go thru the playoffs relatively penalty free and win the whole thing. Two things get accomplished...1) this ref bias narrative simply vanishes and 2) the NFL reaps the marketing of the storylines that would accompany the Saints run to the title.
I don't want their help. I don't want their fairness. I want them to keep cheating to try to beat us so that bile in their throats chokes them on the final day when we've won in spite of their best efforts. I want them to have to face whatever god they pray to at the end of the day and answer for why they weren't only petty and spiteful in life, but also impotent and ineffective and unable, despite the power granted to them, to end that pesky little squad from the middle of the swamp.

I don't want it to go away. I want it to live forever in infamy.
 
I dont think so. Because at the end of it all, doing so would absolutely ruin New Orleans' ability to do anything in the NFL ever again.

They have us by our Lutz.
I think our "Refs, You blow!!!" chant from the Carolina game carried over into the Atlanta game in how we got officiated, TBH.
 
I don't want their help. I don't want their fairness. I want them to keep cheating to try to beat us so that bile in their throats chokes them on the final day when we've won in spite of their best efforts. I want them to have to face whatever god they pray to at the end of the day and answer for why they weren't only petty and spiteful in life, but also impotent and ineffective and unable, despite the power granted to them, to end that pesky little squad from the middle of the swamp.

I don't want it to go away. I want it to live forever in infamy.
Not me. I'll take fairly officiated games for the rest of the season and playoffs so we can actually see this team's full potential.
 

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