NFL changing playoff format (1 Viewer)

Here is the data on all .750 (win%) teams that didnt make the playoffs for one reason or another since 1934. Only 9 of the 15 were bumped by division winners. You might note the most significant casualty was the 1967 Colts that got bumped by the Lomabardi Packers. Thus if we change the system too much perhaps we should also discuss whose name should even be on the trophy.

Bumped by Division Winner
1​
1934​
Lions10-3Giants8-5
2​
1936​
Bears9-3Redskins7-5
3​
1939​
Redskins8-2-1n/a
4​
1942​
Packers8-2-1n/a
5​
1943​
Packers7-2-1Redskins/Giants6-3-1
6​
1944​
Eagles7-1-2n/a
7​
1948​
Bears10-2Eagles9-2-1
8​
1951​
Giants9-2-1Rams8-4
9​
1953​
49ers9-3n/a
10​
1956​
Lions9-3Giants8-3-1
11​
1962​
Lions11-3n/a
12​
1963​
Packers11-2-1Giants11-3
13​
1964​
Cardinals9-3-2n/a
14​
1967​
Colts11-1-2Browns/Packers/Cowboys9-5/9-4-1
15​
1968​
Rams10-3-1Browns/Vikings10-4/8-6
I would rather just take the 4 division winners and get rid of the wild card altogether.

.750 is not the proper percentage to use for this exercise. That's a 12-4 record in today's game, so this data is not surprising - A 12-4 team missing the playoffs literally has never happened, especially after the institution of Wild Card teams in 1970 (and the advent of the 16-game season in 1978). So once again, no surprise that the cut off of your data is 1968.

The proper percentages to use for this data analysis would be <= .625 (10-6) or .5625 (9-7) versus >= .5625 (9-7) or .500 (8-8).
 
.750 is not the proper percentage to use for this exercise. That's a 12-4 record in today's game, so this data is not surprising - A 12-4 team missing the playoffs literally has never happened, especially after the institution of Wild Card teams in 1970 (and the advent of the 16-game season in 1978). So once again, no surprise that the cut off of your data is 1968.

The proper percentages to use for this data analysis would be <= .625 (10-6) or .5625 (9-7) versus >= .5625 (9-7) or .500 (8-8).
I happened to have that data on hand to answer a different but somewhat related question. It will be interesting to compare. You are more answering whether adding a new team will degrade the bottom of the field under the newly proposed format and I was addressing whether any deserving teams were getting excluded by the current format.

Also its worth noting in 1967 they had 4 divisions with 4 teams each (no wildcards), this is the system that shut the Colts who had an 11-1-2 record (tied for the best record in the NFL) out of the playoffs.

Furthermore if your premise is that the best team should have the easiest path should you not consider the following..

The #1 seed currently faces the lower ranked of the winner in #5 seed vs #4 seed or #3 seed vs #6 seed. Presumably in cases where the 4 seed is sliding in the 5 seed should have the better record and be favored. This increases the odds that the 1 seed will play the 5 seed .

Furthermore under the new system it would be 2 vs 7, 3 vs 5, and 4 vs 6 with the favored outcoming pitting 1 vs 6 in the second round (assuming squeak in 4th division winner). So now instead of 5th seed with a strong record moving on to round 2, we get a 6th seed with a slightly better record then the 4th seed advancing to the next round.

Really adding a 7th team, the comparison should be in the drop of from the 5th seed to the 6th seed team, not the 4th to the 7th...which I imagine is much more substantial. Or in the case of the 5 seed winning we now have a 3 seed bumped in favor of a 6 seed in round 2.

But its your point to make so make it as you will.

And Ill hang my hat on getting rid of the whiny wildcard teams altogether and just stick with the 4 division winners that "Lombardi" trophy is based on.
 
The home team coming off a bye wins ~80% of the time in the playoffs making it the most unbalanced advantage in all of sports. Home teams win ~53% of the time in any other NFL game including all other playoff rounds. Having less byes is a great thing for competitive balance.

Now they need to seed according to record and not have automatic home games for division winners.
Except they are not getting rid of the bye, they are giving it to 1 team instead of 2(per conf) so all that advantage is going to 1 team instead of spreading it out over 2 teams. I think this will virtual assure a 1v1 matchup in the SB most years. As it is now, after the divisional rd, you have, most likely, 2 teams in the Conf CG that each had a bye so it was even except for home field. But now in every round the 1 seed will be 1 game fresher than their opponent.
 
Except they are not getting rid of the bye, they are giving it to 1 team instead of 2(per conf) so all that advantage is going to 1 team instead of spreading it out over 2 teams. I think this will virtual assure a 1v1 matchup in the SB most years. As it is now, after the divisional rd, you have, most likely, 2 teams in the Conf CG that each had a bye so it was even except for home field. But now in every round the 1 seed will be 1 game fresher than their opponent.

They are getting rid of 2 out of 4 byes. That sets the odds back for 2 games to 53% instead of 80% for those 2 games, so only 2 games are really unfair instead of all 4. Yes this means the 1st seed is basically assured to get to the Conference Championship, but still only has a 53% chance of getting to the SuperBowl from there, same as before, so that doesn't change.
 
I think a play in game between the 6th and 7th seed to gain entry into the playoffs would be a good idea. Then the winner goes to the WC. Meanwhile the top 2 seeds don't play until the divisional round.
Would prefer that over an extra week of Regular season football and only one seed having a bye.
The problem with that is let’s say the winner of that 6th seed vs. 7th seed game just so happens to make it to the Super Bowl in their conference. The Super Bowl would be that team’s 21st game of the season where they very possibly could be playing a 1st or 2nd seed from the other conference that’s only playing in their 19th game of the year since they had a first round bye.

That’s major disadvantage having had to play 2 extra games more than your opponent has.
 
That's a dumb standard. Almost all playoff games are coin flips that are close into the 4th quarter.

Your criticism is dumb. All those close games are a HUGE part of why we've only had ONE SEASON in our 53-year history where we've won more than one playoff game. Were you even aware of that stat? That's right. Aside from our Super Bowl year, we've gotten bounced the next week following every single playoff victory in team history. Our inability to seize momentum and step on our opponents' necks as well as flat out starting numerous games horribly have collectively cost us at least two rings (2011 and 2018).

Also, you're moving the goalposts. I'm not complaining because the games were close going into the fourth quarter. I'm complaining cuz they were close at almost the end of the game. If you give up a touchdown when there's still 13 minutes left in the fourth, you've probably got 2 or 3 more possessions left to do something about it. You give up a TD in a one-possession game with a minute left and you have a very good chance of losing unless you were up by 7 or 8.
 
Your criticism is dumb. All those close games are a HUGE part of why we've only had ONE SEASON in our 53-year history where we've won more than one playoff game. Were you even aware of that stat? That's right. Aside from our Super Bowl year, we've gotten bounced the next week following every single playoff victory in team history. Our inability to seize momentum and step on our opponents' necks as well as flat out starting numerous games horribly have collectively cost us at least two rings (2011 and 2018).

Also, you're moving the goalposts. I'm not complaining because the games were close going into the fourth quarter. I'm complaining cuz they were close at almost the end of the game. If you give up a touchdown when there's still 13 minutes left in the fourth, you've probably got 2 or 3 more possessions left to do something about it. You give up a TD in a one-possession game with a minute left and you have a very good chance of losing unless you were up by 7 or 8.

Whatever. I just get sick of the whining and downplaying of what we've accomplished.

Yes, we haven't won multiple Super Bowls in the last 14 years. Neither has almost every other team in the league and most of them haven't won any. We have one of the best records in the NFL over that span, three NFCCG appearances, and a SB win.

I'd love to end Brees' run with another Super Bowl, but I'm also cognizant of how just lucky we are as a fan base since Payton got here. It's incredibly difficult to win in this league, much less win a Super Bowl multiple times.
 
Whatever. I just get sick of the whining and downplaying of what we've accomplished.

Yes, we haven't won multiple Super Bowls in the last 14 years. Neither has almost every other team in the league and most of them haven't won any. We have one of the best records in the NFL over that span, three NFCCG appearances, and a SB win.

I'd love to end Brees' run with another Super Bowl, but I'm also cognizant of how just lucky we are as a fan base since Payton got here. It's incredibly difficult to win in this league, much less win a Super Bowl multiple times.

If you're satisfied, then I'm sincerely happy for you. I just see it like this. Since 2006 we have 8 playoff wins and 3 NFC CG appearances and 1 SB win. I personally don't consider that lucky by a long shot. The majority of people around here consider Brees the GOAT. The majority of people around here consider SP a top 3 coach in the league. The majority of the people around here would argue we've had a top 5 offensive skill position squad (RB/WR/TE) almost every year since 2006.

If those things are true, then 1 SB, 3 NFC CG appearances, and 8 playoff wins (of which 4 are wildcard round and only 1 since the SB has occurred past the wildcard round) in 13 seasons for SP and 14 seasons for Brees is pretty hard to describe as lucky or even on par with the expected outcome.
 
Whatever. I just get sick of the whining and downplaying of what we've accomplished.

Yes, we haven't won multiple Super Bowls in the last 14 years. Neither has almost every other team in the league and most of them haven't won any. We have one of the best records in the NFL over that span, three NFCCG appearances, and a SB win.

I'd love to end Brees' run with another Super Bowl, but I'm also cognizant of how just lucky we are as a fan base since Payton got here. It's incredibly difficult to win in this league, much less win a Super Bowl multiple times.
This is all true. Margins of victory are super thin. Almost every play and every decision counts.

Can’t afford to lay any eggs or have any of the lapses that have become something of a pattern when it matters most, and either associated with being unable to defend the pass or coming up with a silly offensive game plan.
 
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Whatever. I just get sick of the whining and downplaying of what we've accomplished.

Yes, we haven't won multiple Super Bowls in the last 14 years. Neither has almost every other team in the league and most of them haven't won any. We have one of the best records in the NFL over that span, three NFCCG appearances, and a SB win.

I'd love to end Brees' run with another Super Bowl, but I'm also cognizant of how just lucky we are as a fan base since Payton got here. It's incredibly difficult to win in this league, much less win a Super Bowl multiple times.

If you're satisfied, then I'm sincerely happy for you. I just see it like this. Since 2006 we have 8 playoff wins and 3 NFC CG appearances and 1 SB win. I personally don't consider that lucky by a long shot. The majority of people around here consider Brees the GOAT. The majority of people around here consider SP a top 3 coach in the league. The majority of the people around here would argue we've had a top 5 offensive skill position squad (RB/WR/TE) almost every year since 2006.

If those things are true, then 1 SB, 3 NFC CG appearances, and 8 playoff wins (of which 4 are wildcard round and only 1 since the SB has occurred past the wildcard round) in 13 seasons for SP and 14 seasons for Brees is pretty hard to describe as lucky or even on par with the expected outcome.

We're usually on the same page Bonchie, but I tend to agree with Black Floyd here.

We've had a remarkable run of success, no doubt, but the truth is, we really have failed Drew, though much of it is just sheer, unprecedented bad luck. There were just too many years where we fielded absolutely atrocious defenses, and too many devastating playoff losses. It has been a fun ride, and I think naturally as Saints fans we are thankful for it given the team's history, but we have not done enough in this era, given the play the team has gotten at quarterback and offense in general.

There really is no good reason why we don't have at least three Super Bowl titles, playing with arguably the greatest statistical quarterback of all-time, in today's game. We really should be the Patriots of the NFC, but we just failed on too many levels in the draft, player acquisitions, player departures, and on the field in key moments. When you really think about it, given the regular season success and quarterback play of the two teams for the past decade-plus, it is quite remarkable that we have never seen a Saints vs. Patriots Super Bowl. What has prevented it, you might ask?

2006 - Both the Saints and Patriots lose in their respective conference championship games
2009 - Saints reach the Super Bowl, but the Patriots play in a rare Wild Card round game and subsequently suffer an uncharacteristic home loss to the Ravens (a legit argument could be made that the Saints "broke" the Patriots that year though)
2011 - Vernon Davis catch doesn't happen, Saints reach NFC title game for a likely win over NYG (we'd have been favored), the Saints play in the Super Bowl versus the Patriots.
2017 - Minnesota Miracle doesn't happen, Saints reach NFC title game for a likely win over PHI (we'd have been favored), the Saints play in the Super Bowl versus the Patriots
2018 - Pass Interference No-Call doesn't happen in NFC title game versus the Rams, the Saints play in the Super Bowl versus the Patriots

I mean the odds of the Saints and Patriots not meeting in a Super Bowl once in the past decade, given the quarterback play, coaching greatness, statistical data, and the positions the two teams have gotten themselves in each season - regular season positioning, postseason positioning, and key moment positioning in postseason games - the odds of these two teams never meeting in a Super Bowl have to be literally less than 5%...I mean, it has literally taken miracles for it to not happen.

There has been just a ton of sheer bad luck, along with far too many 7-9 seasons due to bad defenses sprinkled into this era, not to mention a 2012 season that was straight up stolen from us, with Drew, Sproles, Colston and Jimmy in their primes and the team still on fire coming off three straight playoff runs.

And lets also not forget the fact that there have only been three teams in NFL history to finish with a 13-3 record and have to play in the Wild Card round - and the Saints have two of the three: literally a 29-yard missed field goal in overtime versus Atlanta away from the #1 seed in 2010, and a late game fourth down defensive lapse versus San Francisco away from the #1 seed in 2019.

The Saints legitimately should have like 3 or 4 rings already, but at a minimal, definitely more than one. We have been absolutely incredibly snake-bitten, and I don’t know if it is fully recognized by everyone just what the Saints franchise has missed out on during this Drew Brees era, an era that is sadly near its very end.

The Saints sadly have always been a snake-bitten franchise; it is just manifesting itself in a very different way in this GOAT QB era.
 
If you're satisfied, then I'm sincerely happy for you. I just see it like this. Since 2006 we have 8 playoff wins and 3 NFC CG appearances and 1 SB win. I personally don't consider that lucky by a long shot. The majority of people around here consider Brees the GOAT. The majority of people around here consider SP a top 3 coach in the league. The majority of the people around here would argue we've had a top 5 offensive skill position squad (RB/WR/TE) almost every year since 2006.

If those things are true, then 1 SB, 3 NFC CG appearances, and 8 playoff wins (of which 4 are wildcard round and only 1 since the SB has occurred past the wildcard round) in 13 seasons for SP and 14 seasons for Brees is pretty hard to describe as lucky or even on par with the expected outcome.

Whatever. Complain away.
 
.....The proposed CBA would last for 10 years and would give the players approximately 48 percent of the league’s revenue under the salary cap system during a 16-game season and 48.5 percent after a switch to a 17-game season. The regular season would be extended from 16 to 17 games at some point in the early stages of the new CBA, probably between the 2021 and 2023 seasons.....


Is my math wrong on this?, or this not how it works?

48% for 16 games comes out to 3% per regular season game

48.5% for 17 games is 2.85% per game

Shouldn’t it be 51% of total revenue (staying at the same 3%?)
 
.....The proposed CBA would last for 10 years and would give the players approximately 48 percent of the league’s revenue under the salary cap system during a 16-game season and 48.5 percent after a switch to a 17-game season. The regular season would be extended from 16 to 17 games at some point in the early stages of the new CBA, probably between the 2021 and 2023 seasons.....


Is my math wrong on this?, or this not how it works?

48% for 16 games comes out to 3% per regular season game

48.5% for 17 games is 2.85% per game

Shouldn’t it be 51% of total revenue (staying at the same 3%?)

This is a big reason this proposal will be shot down by the Players Union, amongst other things. Ownership wants to cap the game 17 earnings at $250k, which is well under a lot of the big name players' salaries. They will have to come up significantly if they want game 17, and I don't think it's going to happen.
 
We're usually on the same page Bonchie, but I tend to agree with Black Floyd here.

We've had a remarkable run of success, no doubt, but the truth is, we really have failed Drew, though much of it is just sheer, unprecedented bad luck. There were just too many years where we fielded absolutely atrocious defenses, and too many devastating playoff losses. It has been a fun ride, and I think naturally as Saints fans we are thankful for it given the team's history, but we have not done enough in this era, given the play the team has gotten at quarterback and offense in general.

There really is no good reason why we don't have at least three Super Bowl titles, playing with arguably the greatest statistical quarterback of all-time, in today's game. We really should be the Patriots of the NFC, but we just failed on too many levels in the draft, player acquisitions, player departures, and on the field in key moments. When you really think about it, given the regular season success and quarterback play of the two teams for the past decade-plus, it is quite remarkable that we have never seen a Saints vs. Patriots Super Bowl. What has prevented it, you might ask?

2006 - Both the Saints and Patriots lose in their respective conference championship games
2009 - Saints reach the Super Bowl, but the Patriots play in a rare Wild Card round game and subsequently suffer an uncharacteristic home loss to the Ravens (a legit argument could be made that the Saints "broke" the Patriots that year though)
2011 - Vernon Davis catch doesn't happen, Saints reach NFC title game for a likely win over NYG (we'd have been favored), the Saints play in the Super Bowl versus the Patriots.
2017 - Minnesota Miracle doesn't happen, Saints reach NFC title game for a likely win over PHI (we'd have been favored), the Saints play in the Super Bowl versus the Patriots
2018 - Pass Interference No-Call doesn't happen in NFC title game versus the Rams, the Saints play in the Super Bowl versus the Patriots

I mean the odds of the Saints and Patriots not meeting in a Super Bowl once in the past decade, given the quarterback play, coaching greatness, statistical data, and the positions the two teams have gotten themselves in each season - regular season positioning, postseason positioning, and key moment positioning in postseason games - the odds of these two teams never meeting in a Super Bowl have to be literally less than 5%...I mean, it has literally taken miracles for it to not happen.

There has been just a ton of sheer bad luck, along with far too many 7-9 seasons due to bad defenses sprinkled into this era, not to mention a 2012 season that was straight up stolen from us, with Drew, Sproles, Colston and Jimmy in their primes and the team still on fire coming off three straight playoff runs.

And lets also not forget the fact that there have only been three teams in NFL history to finish with a 13-3 record and have to play in the Wild Card round - and the Saints have two of the three: literally a 29-yard missed field goal in overtime versus Atlanta away from the #1 seed in 2010, and a late game fourth down defensive lapse versus San Francisco away from the #1 seed in 2019.

The Saints legitimately should have like 3 or 4 rings already, but at a minimal, definitely more than one. We have been absolutely incredibly snake-bitten, and I don’t know if it is fully recognized by everyone just what the Saints franchise has missed out on during this Drew Brees era, an era that is sadly near its very end.

The Saints sadly have always been a snake-bitten franchise; it is just manifesting itself in a very different way in this GOAT QB era.
Dunno how snakebitten it is.

it boiled down to bad personnel and coaching decisions on the defensive side of the ball across the era.

Defense improved but through this era there persists some tendency to have breakdowns on 3rd and long or in big moments in a tight game.

Brees did his part, the other pieces were t there to complement.
 

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