COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (15 Viewers)

[Maxp]

Just wanted to add, the weirdness factor for me is that we're a fairly open society and people from all over the world travel here, and frequently. It's just surprising to me that we haven't seen much considering all that's going on. I have to think people who have traveled here in the last month have been in the country and unwittingly not only carrying the virus, but also spreading it. It seems like enough time has elapsed that we should have started seeing more than a few cases pop up by now. Hard to explain that one.

It can be explained if we aren't even looking for it. No one here knows the pneumonia statistics.

 

[bclemms]

According to the WHO, around 80% of people recover without needing special treatment. Around 1 in 6 become seriously ill with breathing difficulties.

As for how long, it seems to vary, from a couple of weeks of little or no symptoms, to six weeks or more.

That's the general outline of it. The exact figures may well shift as time goes on and we can get a better handle on it. But the general shape of it - the severity and duration of symptoms varies quite a lot, a small but significant number of people develop severe symptoms, but people do mostly recover without hospital treatment - is pretty solid at this point I'd say.

China's patient tracking since the start of January was surprisingly incredible using AI and 5G to accumulate data in real time. The flow charts and tranmission chain charts WHO reported yesterday were state of the art. The data should be pretty spot on. The biggest question I have is what will the death rate be in countries with very limited supply to ventilators when they get overrun. I think Iran will be the first to answer that question and it likely wont be pretty. WHO has even stated that this virus is going to take countries that can't provide adequate care in mass by surprise. I think 10% death rate in those cases is certainly within the realm of possibility.

For the most part though, Covid-19 is not scary because it'll melt your body from the inside out like some diseases. What is scary is just how contagious it is with 15-20% needing serious/critical level care.

 

[Doug B]

Almost All Patients in South Korean Psychiatric Ward Have Virus

Almost all patients at a psychiatric ward of a South Korean hospital tested positive for the coronavirus, with local reports saying a religious sect with followers who were infected had attended a funeral in the same complex.

www.bloomberg.com

I found a Reddit thread that showed "99 out of 102" and linked to that Bloomberg article. That Bloomberg article does NOT show 99 out of 102 -- it doesn't seem to give numbers at all. Or else I have missed them upon multiple readings.

 

[bclemms]

Just wanted to add, the weirdness factor for me is that we're a fairly open society and people from all over the world travel here, and frequently. It's just surprising to me that we haven't seen much considering all that's going on. I have to think people who have traveled here in the last month have been in the country and unwittingly not only carrying the virus, but also spreading it. It seems like enough time has elapsed that we should have started seeing more than a few cases pop up by now. Hard to explain that one.

Look at the trends. Italy, South Korea and Japan all have really high population densities and are smaller countries. A week ago they had a combined 40 cases. Now they have almost 2000. We are a lot more spread out and if we are only a few days behind them then we could be exploding with cases and not know it. Now, if another couple weeks go by and nothing then it's going to be be reasonable that we've avoided mass spread up until the timeframe we're in now.

 

[bclemms]

I found a Reddit thread that showed "99 out of 102" and linked to that Bloomberg article. That Bloomberg article does NOT show 99 out of 102 -- it doesn't seem to give numbers at all. Or else I have missed them upon multiple readings.

There are several links to it in this thread somewhere.

 

[PurpleBlack&Gold]

China's patient tracking since the start of January was surprisingly incredible using AI and 5G to accumulate data in real time. The flow charts and tranmission chain charts WHO reported yesterday were state of the art. The data should be pretty spot on. The biggest question I have is what will the death rate be in countries with very limited supply to ventilators when they get overrun. I think Iran will be the first to answer that question and it likely wont be pretty. WHO has even stated that this virus is going to take countries that can't provide adequate care in mass by surprise. I think 10% death rate in those cases is certainly within the realm of possibility.

For the most part though, Covid-19 is not scary because it'll melt your body from the inside out like some diseases. What is scary is just how contagious it is with 15-20% needing serious/critical level care.

Other than the case fatality rates its eerily similar to the movie Contagion. I watched it the other night because I couldn't help myself and its rather disturbing. The fatality rate in the move was 25%. But it was all good because Matt Damon and Larry Fishburn eventually saved the day.

 

[bclemms]

THIS IS EXPIRIMENTAL, way too many variables exist and only time will verify if it is good or garbage. So far the forecast we put together is going surprisingly well in Europe but it is still very early. This map is something we did based off of climatology, weather forecast data, population density, travel frequency, travel routes. It is for risk of person to person spread only, not importing single cases from travel.

 

[Doug B]

There are several links to it in this thread somewhere.

I've searched this entire thread. James Spader linked to the same Bloomberg article Sunday. That's been it.

I apologize for picking a nit. But if we're going to posit that this virus can spread via unusual means, we need firmer support for the proposition.

 

[SaintRob]

THIS IS EXPIRIMENTAL, way too many variables exist and only time will verify if it is good or garbage. So far the forecast we put together is going surprisingly well in Europe but it is still very early. This map is something we did based off of climatology, weather forecast data, population density, travel frequency, travel routes. It is for risk of person to person spread only, not importing single cases from travel.

Why would Shreveport and Alexandria (and to a lesser extent, Baton Rouge and the Northshore) have a greater risk than New Orleans?

 

[DaveXA]

Being reported that a flight attendant on a Korean Air flight into LAX is a confirmed case of the virus. I'm not sure how that was determined though. Only caught the tail end of it and was in a rush.

 

[PurpleBlack&Gold]

THIS IS EXPIRIMENTAL, way too many variables exist and only time will verify if it is good or garbage. So far the forecast we put together is going surprisingly well in Europe but it is still very early. This map is something we did based off of climatology, weather forecast data, population density, travel frequency, travel routes. It is for risk of person to person spread only, not importing single cases from travel.

Based on this map I should tell my family to go to the mouth of the river?

 

[DaveXA]

Something else to consider. My brother in laws flew here from Korea last week. No questions and no testing. Just came through customs like they've normally done in the past. Business as usual. Which I thought was crazy.

 

[efil4stnias]

Based on this map I should tell my family to go to the mouth of the river?

Or a houseboat in the gulf.

 

[PurpleBlack&Gold]

I've searched this entire thread. James Spader linked to the same Bloomberg article Sunday. That's been it.

I apologize for picking a nit. But if we're going to posit that this virus can spread via unusual means, we need firmer support for the proposition.

Here you go. This is about the transmission but is 5 days old. A good read nonetheless.

How COVID-19 Is Spread

Scientists' latest understanding of the facts, the suspicions, and the discounted rumors of SARS-CoV-2's transmission from person to person

www.the-scientist.com

 

[bclemms]

I've searched this entire thread. James Spader linked to the same Bloomberg article Sunday. That's been it.

I apologize for picking a nit. But if we're going to posit that this virus can spread via unusual means, we need firmer support for the proposition.

It most likely can spread through phsical contact, fomites, aerosol, droplets and fecal matter. There are other studies that are finding virus shed in urine but it's unknown how long it it can survive or transmit through urine.

It was 99/102, since that time all the patients in that closed warn of the hospital and 9 staff tested positive. The 103rd patient had been transferred to another hospital before testing positive upon return. So it's 103/103 patients and 9 staff but I can't find the total number of staff, just the number infected. You have to piece it together from about 6 different articles. Point still stands, percentage of handshakes doesn't explain anything. The only thing that can reasonable explain the USA's lack of cases is 1) Luck, 2) We aren't testing