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I posted last weekend the Global Mortality rate (GMr) of cases with outcome(see below).
I showed that last Sunday (3/29) was End of week 0 and had a 17.8% GMr; with possible incremental growth after the two previous weeks, however there was not enough discrete data points to include in the analysis other than to create the baseline.
Data at end of Week 1 is not encouraging.
Current case with outcome Global GMr is now up to 20.8% (from 17.8%), with incremental growth in 6 of the 7 days (1 day without incremental growth, Wednesday to Thursday, was flat, 19.4%, and an increase over Tuesday, 18.7%).
This is now a “possible correlation” and three weeks from being a “trend”. Next week will bear out either: 1) that there is a “strong potential correlation“ between recovery time and mortality - without factoring in outside variables like ventilator shortages mind you - that points to the deadliness of the virus is much greater than previously thought, or 2) proves to be noise, and that our ICU overrun and lack of ventilators still remain as the primary concern when looking at infection trends, with a trend line moving in the right direction.
Frankly, I shudder to think what a 5% direct mortality rate globally would look like, much less 8-10%.
Keep in mind that the ventilator shortage isnt much of a factor globally yet, hasn’t hit the US other than NY and I believe the same is for most nations (other than Italy).
And the death rates are what they are.
The triage decisions we heard about from Italy, the morbid decisions being made, haven’t begun in full and we are just now hearing of talk in NY.
Moreover, the overall mortality rate even with new cases factored in, is climbing, and Is currently 5.4% as opposed to 3.4% two weeks ago.
Instead of the curve starting to level off and ultimately move towards 1% as was predicted, the rate has increased over 2% in two weeks with no evidence of peak globally yet.
Finally, what this data tells me (and please remember I only determine rates for machinery, so there is a good possibility the equations don’t cross industries or display the same messages) is that the number of people getting sick isn’t slowing down, but the number of people recovering is. Down almost 10% of the total of cases with outcome. In other words, three weeks ago, in a week if you had 10 new sick people, 4 existing would have an outcome and thus a net of +6 cases at the end of the week. Now we are seeing only 2 1/2 cases with outcome per 10 new cases - but we are having more die by nearly double what we were two weeks ago.
Not a trend yet but I definitely wish I never would have started this. Each day I do the math and just feel like crap.
I noticed this as well. Not on the level you have but its obvious that the death rate has been increasing instead of the expected drop. I try not to bring it up anymore. But it is a major concern and has not been moving in the right direction.
