The Investment Thread (6 Viewers)

2.6B daily users, a third of which are bots and no infrastructure, zero. Also Amazon was a big spender on Facebook ads, wonder if that will come to a stop either by Amazon who may see Facebook as competition or vice versa.

It certainly has my interest peaked, much less with the stock and much more with the idea of setting up a shop on Facebook that ties into my WXChasing page since I already have a few hundred thousand followers. Wonder how/if pages will tie into shops. The upside of that would be incredible but the downside risk of people getting Facebook marketed to death could collapse it if they aren't careful.

I'm guessing this is going to tie into Facebook Libra... The cryptocurrency they announced to launch in 2020.

They have partnered with Shopify and payments thru Stripe. Charging a. 30 transaction fee.

If you have 2% of 1.8b users (subtracting. 8b for bots) that's 36mm transactions a day x. 30 fee for 10mm in revenue per day.

I don't know enough about the analytics with FB, but they do and if done right, could be another revenue stream.

If they tie in with Libra, they control the method in which you buy. You can still buy w credit, but then subjected to cc fee and FB transaction fee.

Just reading up on all this tonite.
 
I'm guessing this is going to tie into Facebook Libra... The cryptocurrency they announced to launch in 2020.

They have partnered with Shopify and payments thru Stripe. Charging a. 30 transaction fee.

If you have 2% of 1.8b users (subtracting. 8b for bots) that's 36mm transactions a day x. 30 fee for 10mm in revenue per day.

I don't know enough about the analytics with FB, but they do and if done right, could be another revenue stream.

If they tie in with Libra, they control the method in which you buy. You can still buy w credit, but then subjected to cc fee and FB transaction fee.

Just reading up on all this tonite.
No doubt a lot of potential is there. Just the question whether they are going after Amazon or if they are more into going after credit card companies. paypal and ebay. The real driver will ultimately be their AI program that can drive people to precise products in their own ad profiles.

The other part is Facebook has really built this massive platform with the perfect consumer. The average Facebook user is middle aged, they are quite impulsive, don't do much research and tend to have herd mentality. Don't get me wrong, with Billions of users it's going to have some diversity but there is little question about what demographic drives FB. The younger version of these people go to IG so they have that locked up too.
 
No doubt a lot of potential is there. Just the question whether they are going after Amazon or if they are more into going after credit card companies. paypal and ebay. The real driver will ultimately be their AI program that can drive people to precise products in their own ad profiles.

The other part is Facebook has really built this massive platform with the perfect consumer. The average Facebook user is middle aged, they are quite impulsive, don't do much research and tend to have herd mentality. Don't get me wrong, with Billions of users it's going to have some diversity but there is little question about what demographic drives FB. The younger version of these people go to IG so they have that locked up too.


I think the headlines were that simply to drum up readers.


yeah im willing to bet some serious research was done into analytics and psychology to arrive here.

Stock is starting to climb.
 
Huge drop in NUGT this morning, buying the dip here with caution as sentiment changing from an inflationary environment on the backside of this to a long term deflationary environment could make Gold fall through the floor.
 
Bond market is starting to see some pressure again today, that and gold is signaling increased volatility. Also seeing a lot of buying of the really beaten up stuff. Very odd combo.
 
Looking at the velocity charts he was showing vs Fed policy it sure looks like we've been in a recession since 2007 and the bull market in equities was simply based on debt and cheap rates combined with corporate debt and stock buy backs. Sounds crazy but corporate debt, government debt, credit card debt, student loan debt and medical debt were all at record levels and drove the consumer.

Looking at the retracement levels of the SP and Dow, it sure shows how importance the levels we are testing now are to the markets.

With the complete disconnect between FANG stocks and the rest of the market combined with the unemployment numbers overlayed with bankruptcy chart shows just how much consolidation is taking place among a handful of companies.

If we have a second waves it is really going to be doom and gloom for the economy and we really could see the unraveling of the ponzi scheme. Thank god the rest of the world is in the same position. If this was just a US problem then the dollar would be vaporized.

It also shows what so much FED lending could do to the markets on the backside of this. If markets were able to increase 300% off of 2008 lows from the FED, then it's easy to see how that could happen again if we are able to recover quickly. Problem is, this is just going to get us to the next crisis.
 
Looking at the velocity charts he was showing vs Fed policy it sure looks like we've been in a recession since 2007 and the bull market in equities was simply based on debt and cheap rates combined with corporate debt and stock buy backs. Sounds crazy but corporate debt, government debt, credit card debt, student loan debt and medical debt were all at record levels and drove the consumer.

Looking at the retracement levels of the SP and Dow, it sure shows how importance the levels we are testing now are to the markets.

With the complete disconnect between FANG stocks and the rest of the market combined with the unemployment numbers overlayed with bankruptcy chart shows just how much consolidation is taking place among a handful of companies.

If we have a second waves it is really going to be doom and gloom for the economy and we really could see the unraveling of the ponzi scheme. Thank god the rest of the world is in the same position. If this was just a US problem then the dollar would be vaporized.

It also shows what so much FED lending could do to the markets on the backside of this. If markets were able to increase 300% off of 2008 lows from the FED, then it's easy to see how that could happen again if we are able to recover quickly. Problem is, this is just going to get us to the next crisis.

I like how he explained, simply, how that the equities market ( Wall St ) is NOT indicative of the broader economy ( Main St ) and how he hit you with Top 5 S & P 500 stocks market cap is EQUIVALENT to that of the bottom 300 or so companies.

Thats insane.

Basically, the Fed has been propping up the market since 2008 or so and all the while debt has been building.

sueprchuck500 posted a week or so back that chatter is starting to ramp up about deflation.

As you can see here, for good reason.
 
Looking at the velocity charts he was showing vs Fed policy it sure looks like we've been in a recession since 2007 and the bull market in equities was simply based on debt and cheap rates combined with corporate debt and stock buy backs. Sounds crazy but corporate debt, government debt, credit card debt, student loan debt and medical debt were all at record levels and drove the consumer.

Looking at the retracement levels of the SP and Dow, it sure shows how importance the levels we are testing now are to the markets.

With the complete disconnect between FANG stocks and the rest of the market combined with the unemployment numbers overlayed with bankruptcy chart shows just how much consolidation is taking place among a handful of companies.

If we have a second waves it is really going to be doom and gloom for the economy and we really could see the unraveling of the ponzi scheme. Thank god the rest of the world is in the same position. If this was just a US problem then the dollar would be vaporized.

It also shows what so much FED lending could do to the markets on the backside of this. If markets were able to increase 300% off of 2008 lows from the FED, then it's easy to see how that could happen again if we are able to recover quickly. Problem is, this is just going to get us to the next crisis.


We are at S & P historical retracement TOP now....62%.

Historically, this is it, and the reversal begins in earnest.

And if the slide begins just before fall, and we get a second wave from Covid....yeah. will get ugly.
 
I like how he explained, simply, how that the equities market ( Wall St ) is NOT indicative of the broader economy ( Main St ) and how he hit you with Top 5 S & P 500 stocks market cap is EQUIVALENT to that of the bottom 300 or so companies.

Thats insane.

Basically, the Fed has been propping up the market since 2008 or so and all the while debt has been building.

sueprchuck500 posted a week or so back that chatter is starting to ramp up about deflation.

As you can see here, for good reason.
Yes, it became deflationary the second the virus jumped on a plane in landed in the US. It was inflationary when it was a China problem shutting down supply while US demand was still high. The questions of inflation and deflation are simply symptoms though. There is little doubt that short term deflation will dominate.This will continue to force the FED and Congress to keep printing money. This is why I've been so big on Gold since last summer. The question is on the backside of Covid whether we will get inflation but like Japan and Europe, we've injected so much money into the system since 2008 that it has been driving the markets but main street must have a bull market to drive inflation and it simply hasn't been there. It's been government debt driving the economy. Want to see just how much debt has been driving this bad boy?
1590094455422.png
 
Yes, it became deflationary the second the virus jumped on a plane in landed in the US. It was inflationary when it was a China problem shutting down supply while US demand was still high. The questions of inflation and deflation are simply symptoms though. There is little doubt that short term deflation will dominate.This will continue to force the FED and Congress to keep printing money. This is why I've been so big on Gold since last summer. The question is on the backside of Covid whether we will get inflation but like Japan and Europe, we've injected so much money into the system since 2008 that it has been driving the markets but main street must have a bull market to drive inflation and it simply hasn't been there. It's been government debt driving the economy. Want to see just how much debt has been driving this bad boy?
1590094455422.png

look at insert 2009.

look at chart 2009.

EL OH EL.

its simply artificial. His video is corret- no more fundamentals ( ive been screaming this for a good year now ) its flows. I thought emotion, but its not- its funds, govt funds and private funding flowing in and making the market SEEM well. Its no longer based on consumer data. Pssh...the REAL money comes from those outside sources.

Welp, gonna ride this wave. Just hope im Kelly Slater and know when to get off the wave before i get drowned.
 
look at insert 2009.

look at chart 2009.

EL OH EL.

its simply artificial. His video is corret- no more fundamentals ( ive been screaming this for a good year now ) its flows. I thought emotion, but its not- its funds, govt funds and private funding flowing in and making the market SEEM well. Its no longer based on consumer data. Pssh...the REAL money comes from those outside sources.

Welp, gonna ride this wave. Just hope im Kelly Slater and know when to get off the wave before i get drowned.
I'm not pretending to have been sitting on this great magical secret. I watched the video and it all kind of clicked. Pulled those two charts and BOOM.

So basically GDP has been driving the market but Government debt has been driving GDP. So why have we been doing this? Imagine running a campaign on a platform on "The next 20 years are going to suck". LMAO, #MASA

Seriously though, it's coming down to either drawing down the debt again like we did in that 40 year stretch with stagnant markets or ride the market wave like you speak but the latter will end spectacularly.
 
Could be a rough day tomorrow. China is pushing a new privacy law on Hong Kong where their market is down 3% and protests are about to really get fired up again as tensions between China and USA continue to increase. Dow futures are down a little over 200 points right now but they are usually down about that much in the middle of the night the last few weeks before a big reversal comes in a couple hours before the open. Glad I held heavy gold and Silver ETF's overnight. Was ready to jump on VIIX in the morning going into a 3 day weekend but looks like I'm literally a day late again. I've been missing that Vix trade by a day for a year now.

As for the new law passed in Hong Kong and why it is a big deal to the USA? Well, Mike Pompeo's public approval of Taiwan's newly elected president really P'Oed off the Chinese since she is very much against anything China and China basically said this would be the end of the 1 country, 2 system in Taiwan. So in retaliation, China drops a law that would basically end the 1 country, 2 system rule in Hong Kong, something Trump has vowed to protect. So this is kind of a big deal as China is inviting USA into some proxy tensions in Hong Kong and Trump's reelection campaign is going to just about be 100% anti China. There is already some talk about sanctions with China and China at this point has probably had enough of Trump. China does have to be somewhat careful though, they are literally the one thing the US has bipartisan support on at the moment.

Here is the law.
 
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Could be a rough day tomorrow. China is pushing a new privacy law on Hong Kong where their market is down 3% and protests are about to really get fired up again as tensions between China and USA continue to increase. Dow futures are down a little over 200 points right now but they are usually down about that much in the middle of the night the last few weeks before a big reversal comes in a couple hours before the open. Glad I held heavy gold and Silver ETF's overnight. Was ready to jump on VIIX in the morning going into a 3 day weekend but looks like I'm literally a day late again. I've been missing that Vix trade by a day for a year now.

As for the new law passed in Hong Kong and why it is a big deal to the USA? Well, Mike Pompeo's public approval of Taiwan's newly elected president really P'Oed off the Chinese since she is very much against anything China and China basically said this would be the end of the 1 country, 2 system in Taiwan. So in retaliation, China drops a law that would basically end the 1 country, 2 system rule in Hong Kong, something Trump has vowed to protect. So this is kind of a big deal as China is inviting USA into some proxy tensions in Hong Kong and Trump's reelection campaign is going to just about be 100% anti China. There is already some talk about sanctions with China and China at this point has probably had enough of Trump. China does have to be somewhat careful though, they are literally the one thing the US has bipartisan support on at the moment.

Here is the law.
Brandon, have you watched any of General Robert Spalding's interviews on China? Or read his book?
 

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