COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (20 Viewers)

[buzd]

So, can you use your Math brain to help explain to those of us who are Mathematically challenged, how Simpson's Paradox applies to COVID and how it makes it look like we are treating it better and getting fewer deaths, but we really aren't? I'm sure you are right, but Statistics tends to be beyond my Math abilities.

The point is different states (and even subsets of states in many cases) are all in different points of their own outbreaks (and actually have differing amounts of population density and mitigation affecting their curves, but we can ignore that for the moment), so when you add up all the numbers as a country, you get data that is useful historically, but pretty much not useful at all as a modeling tool of what is coming in the future.

By looking at each area's outbreak individually (and associated hospital capacities, death/treatment rates, etc), you can model more accurately. I'm not (and I don't think the tweeter above is) saying that we aren't treating better - just that making predictions based on national data is somewhat flawed.

 

[superchuck500]

Gonna be another new record today.

 

[faceman]

I think yes but possibly no. Surely the death figures are going to go up - we know the illness takes several weeks to kill (18-21 days avg). But with a demographically younger victim population and a medical community that has learned a lot in three months, I think the mortality rate will remain lower than it was during the first wave. There are ways to treat this disease that increase survival that weren’t fully known in March - May.

I'm not being a smart arse, but are we really done with the first wave? I shudder to think what's going to happen if schools reopen in August.

 

[superchuck500]

I'm not being a smart arse, but are we really done with the first wave? I shudder to think what's going to happen if schools reopen in August.

No, I was using that terminology for general semantic purposes referring to the
period before the stay at home orders ended - not to indicate specially that a wave came and went and now we have a new wave. It’s all the same wave.

I have been referring to it as the “new spike” which is probably better terminology.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

I'm not being a smart arse, but are we really done with the first wave? I shudder to think what's going to happen if schools reopen in August.

i'd be curious to see what exactly qualifies as 1st/2nd wave
like NO and LA might actually be flirting with a 2nd wave
but everywhere else is still def first wave

 

[SaintsFanInLA]

This is a good (and frightening) thread.



The meat of it is this:

That Simpson's Paradox video was a bit difficult to ingest all in one sitting. I'll need to watch it a few times. I mean, I get the ultimate point but the way he breezed through the examples, I'll need to watch again.

 

[faceman]

i'd be curious to see what exactly qualifies as 1st/2nd wave
like NO and LA might actually be flirting with a 2nd wave
but everywhere else is still def first wave

it's just my uneducated opinion, but I believe this virus said "i'm patient. I'll just sit here and wait"

 

[bclemms]

White House is finally changing it's strategy. No more it's a hoax, no more it's going away talk. Maybe they finally get it and the nation is going to unite with a clear message to put an end to this damn virus once and for all.

'We need to live with it': White House readies new message for the nation on coronavirus

The effort to craft a clearer response comes after months of Trump downplaying the health crisis and mixed signals from the administration.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

White House is finally changing it's strategy. No more it's a hoax, no more it's going away talk. Maybe they finally get it and the nation is going to unite with a clear message to put an end to this damn virus once and for all.

'We need to live with it': White House readies new message for the nation on coronavirus

The effort to craft a clearer response comes after months of Trump downplaying the health crisis and mixed signals from the administration.

www.nbcnews.com

Trump comes to the mike:
Don't call it a walk back
i've said this for years

 

[buzd]

White House is finally changing it's strategy. No more it's a hoax, no more it's going away talk. Maybe they finally get it and the nation is going to unite with a clear message to put an end to this damn virus once and for all.

'We need to live with it': White House readies new message for the nation on coronavirus

The effort to craft a clearer response comes after months of Trump downplaying the health crisis and mixed signals from the administration.

www.nbcnews.com

If you read the article, they're just saying live with it. There's nothing there about a comprehensive mitigation message (maybe that's coming). And I don't know how they think a certain someone can stay on message, especially when it contradicts pretty much everything he has been saying.

 

[St. Geezy]

Mexico closes border in Arizona as coronavirus cases in both countries surge

The Northern Mexican state of Sonora — which borders Arizona and a small portion of New Mexico — is toughening border restrictions this weekend as both regions experience a surge in coronavirus cas…

thehill.com

 

[Sun Wukong]

Yup.

I was just talking with a couple of colleagues yesterday about this.

We just started our summer vacation this week (we go until the end of June here) and speculating what next Fall is going to look like.

The Province has said that we might want to consider opening a week earlier, because we *will* be shut down. And soon, I think.

The school is telling us to prepare for a hybrid model of teaching, mix of online and distance learning. I think many people are operating under the assumption there will be a lot of the latter.

I think it's going to be like 80% former. And that's in a province that has had fewer than 200 cases per day for most of the last two weeks.

In states where this is about to really hit... prepare now for a lot more distance learning.

School districts, as I've written before, as absolutely *STUPID* if they are not planning with local telecoms to blanket wifi coverage.This is especially an issue in school districts with high rural populations (something I've been advocating for more infrastructure in the past, way before this). They need to get teachers ready for online teaching. They need to talk about stripping down the curriculum to essentials and competencies. They need to take standardized testing out of their stupid mouths (better if it stayed out). They need to be planning to hand out technology for kids.They need to develop an attack plan for getting food to kids on free- and reduced-lunch plans (those are still budgeted). And so on.

Any district where this *is not* happening, if I was a parent and taxpayer I would be raising ten different kinds of hell.

But I know - for a FACT - that a lot of schools and districts have done little to nothing. And when the public rises up in outrage, justifiably, they are gonna have very little to respond with.

And the petty side of me wants to say, "And you deserve it! Every bit of it!" Except we're talking about kids, people. And their education. And it's so important for so many of them.

The general impression I've gotten from people I've talked to about what a lot of districts are doing seems to be a combination of denial and lack of planning. Lots of "We WILL be back in the classroom in the fall!" stories in local papers just regurgitating the state guidelines for reopening, which are a joke. I know early in this there seemed to be a push for 1:1 technology for home use and working with internet providers to increase internet availability, but I haven't heard a whole lot about that lately. And I find it pretty telling that I'm seeing districts all around the sake put up surveys for parents that basically amount to "Well, what do you think we should do?" Most district calendars begin in a month and they're still soliciting public opinion about the path forward. My takeaway is there has been a total lack of planning, everyone assumed we'd be able to go back with guidelines in place, and we're setting ourselves up for disaster again because it's becoming very evident that isn't an option.

 

[bclemms]

If you read the article, they're just saying live with it. There's nothing there about a comprehensive mitigation message (maybe that's coming). And I don't know how they think a certain someone can stay on message, especially when it contradicts pretty much everything he has been saying.

Yeah, my post was a giant bag of sarcasm.

 

[buzd]

Yeah, my post was a giant bag of sarcasm.

You need to use the font.

 

[SaintsFanInLA]

Trump comes to the mike:
Don't call it a walk back
i've said this for years

LL Cool Trump