***TROPICAL ALERT*** Hurricane Isaias (1 Viewer)

Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, we will get better models predicting this. The center is likely to move dramatically today, due to the nature of this broad wave, and land interaction.

The early Euro almost looks like it doesn't expect the center low to change locations and just push through Hispaniola, whereas the others have it reform a bit north. The ones that call it to reform north, tend to show the curl missing FL.. The ones keeping it where it is, show it going right for South Florida, but also keep is weaker.

That's my uneducated view of it, at least.
 
Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, we will get better models predicting this. The center is likely to move dramatically today, due to the nature of this broad wave, and land interaction.

The early Euro almost looks like it doesn't expect the center low to change locations and just push through Hispaniola, whereas the others have it reform a bit north. The ones that call it to reform north, tend to show the curl missing FL.. The ones keeping it where it is, show it going right for South Florida, but also keep is weaker.

That's my uneducated view of it, at least.
Pretty good view. It's got other factors at play like the timing of the trough over the southern US, how organized the storm can become to fend off SW shear and how much the Bermuda High can build in the weakness along the East Coast.

The track to the southern Bahamas is pretty easy, after that it gets really complicated.
 
Thursday evening report. Storm center better defined and deepening as it emerges from crossing the eastern tip of Hispaniola. Quite a bit of shear ahead.

 
Man, that jumped to a Cat 1 a bit faster than anticipated.
 

Big ball of convection firing just north of Haiti.
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end of run

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Well I don't like this look at all. There we are smack in the middle of Maryland's lower eastern shore and assuming a NNE track, right in the NE quadrant. It's going to suck.
 
Well I don't like this look at all. There we are smack in the middle of Maryland's lower eastern shore and assuming a NNE track, right in the NE quadrant. It's going to suck.

Hopefully if you get it, it's just some nasty weather for a few hours. Intensity guidance is fairly uniform.


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