***TROPICAL ALERT*** Hurricane Sally (Tropical systems are going into 2020 mode) (1 Viewer)

[Doug B]

Center reformed farther east. Starting to strengthen. Looking like direct it on MS coast now.

Wow, like 20 miles east of where the center was before with the predicted track moving accordingly. Can't recall ever seeing a storm do that so close to land.

...

St. Charles Parish was issued a mandatory evacuation order yesterday morning. Any St. Charles Parish locals in the house to comment on how many left the area?

 

[boutrous]

When was the last time there were 5 named storms at once, if ever? Of course it would happen in 2020.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

When was the last time there were 5 named storms at once, if ever?

On the news just now they said 1971.

 

[buzd]

Starting to ramp up. I think this thing is going to go even more east than the track.

 

[boutrous]

On the news just now they said 1971.

Just saw a tweet about it, apparently it's only the 2nd time ever recorded.

 

[Doug B]

I guess with these storms, anything really can happen.

Is it my imagination, or over the past several years haven't storm tracks in the Gulf tended to progress westward as they approach land (just like Laura did)? Seems that storms doing what Sally's doing (track moving eastward less than 36 hours from landfall) is much rarer. Although -- Hurricane Georges did the eastward jog in 1998.

 

[superchuck500]

I guess with these storms, anything really can happen.

Is it my imagination, or over the past several years haven't storm tracks in the Gulf tended to progress westward as they approach land (just like Laura did)? Seems that storms doing what Sally's doing (track moving eastward less than 36 hours from landfall) is much rarer. Although -- Hurricane Georges did the eastward jog in 1998.

I remember one or two in the 80s that went back and forth. Headed toward LA but then shifted back toward Apalachicola . . . and then turned back west.

I don't think the strong/tight ones do that.

 

[buzd]

I guess with these storms, anything really can happen.

Is it my imagination, or over the past several years haven't storm tracks in the Gulf tended to progress westward as they approach land (just like Laura did)? Seems that storms doing what Sally's doing (track moving eastward less than 36 hours from landfall) is much rarer. Although -- Hurricane Georges did the eastward jog in 1998.

It didn't really "move" eastward - the center just reformed where there was more convection and activity.

 

[Bill]

I guess with these storms, anything really can happen.

Is it my imagination, or over the past several years haven't storm tracks in the Gulf tended to progress westward as they approach land (just like Laura did)? Seems that storms doing what Sally's doing (track moving eastward less than 36 hours from landfall) is much rarer. Although -- Hurricane Georges did the eastward jog in 1998.

It's always a matter of the high pressure areas and the troughs. It's rare that a storm will make it's own path. All the spaghetti models are the result the data of the atmospheric conditions that are fed into the model programs. It's possible that the most recent years have seen a stronger Bermuda high pressure ridge that has forced storms farther westward before making their eventual northerly turn. But I haven't studied the storms enough the last few years to know if this has been a real trend or not.

 

[brandon8283]

Starting to ramp up. I think this thing is going to go even more east than the track.

Yea, this is really tricky for me. My home is in Ocean Springs, MS, which is a bad spot to be right now. But my evac location is around north Mobile, AL...which may end up being worse if this thing tracks farther east.

Just really dicey right now.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[buzd]

Yea, this is really tricky for me. My home is in Ocean Springs, MS, which is a bad spot to be right now. But my evac location is around north Mobile, AL...which may end up being worse if this thing tracks farther east.

Just really dicey right now.

I don't think either of those places are good places to be, but you have a better - but not good - chance of a miss in Ocean Springs (although it could be worse as well). Mobile is going to catch it either way.

 

[St. Widge]

It didn't really "move" eastward - the center just reformed where there was more convection and activity.

That's the second time it has done that. Maybe I just don't recall it in the past but that doesn't seem like something that usually happens this often to a storm. I know it does happen, but this one has now done it twice in 24 hours.

 

[efil4stnias]

Starting to ramp up. I think this thing is going to go even more east than the track.

yep im thinkin Pascagoula area - at 5mph that is usually when storms attempt to move northward.

I dont think there is a strong enough steering pattern to bring it to SELA. I hope anyway.

But im no met.

 

[efil4stnias]

That's the second time it has done that. Maybe I just don't recall it in the past but that doesn't seem like something that usually happens this often to a storm. I know it does happen, but this one has now done it twice in 24 hours.

Sally struggled to get a LLC and MLC in sync. So stayed rather ragged once off Fl into GoM.

Not sure why ( atmospheric maybe ) but sure didnt mimic Laura.

They now have it coming just to Lake Borgne and taking a HARD right and BACK NE toward Pascagoula area.

Speed is the factor- slower =faster turn/sharper turn radius vs faster = slower turn/larger turn radius