COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (14 Viewers)

Delta is a problem. But, for those who are vaccinated the risk is very low of having a serious case if you are basically healthy. And of course the media likes to trip out about every single variation in the virus. Fear and panic sells, and so with each one it’s the end of the world.

To most things I’ve read none of these have a serious enough mutation to make the vaccines anything but extremely effective. For those area with high rates of vaccination, it seemingly being held in check rather well. It’s also showing it’s hand to
Researchers who will be updating vaccines as to which portion is more stable and which mutates more to tailor the vaccine boosters a little better.
But, for those areas with poor vaccination rates I’m thinking this fall is going to be pretty ugly.
 
Delta is a problem. But, for those who are vaccinated the risk is very low of having a serious case if you are basically healthy. And of course the media likes to trip out about every single variation in the virus. Fear and panic sells, and so with each one it’s the end of the world.

To most things I’ve read none of these have a serious enough mutation to make the vaccines anything but extremely effective. For those area with high rates of vaccination, it seemingly being held in check rather well. It’s also showing it’s hand to
Researchers who will be updating vaccines as to which portion is more stable and which mutates more to tailor the vaccine boosters a little better.
But, for those areas with poor vaccination rates I’m thinking this fall is going to be pretty ugly.
I haven't seen anything that says to panic but it wouldn't surprise me. Covid isn't getting the ratings since most are vaccinated so it takes big news to even raise eyebrows. Most people at this stage just don't care unless it impacts the vaccine, myself included.
 
This appears to be an isolated location for numbers like this. Makes me wonder if they got a batch of vaccine that wasn't properly stored.
As bad at that would be for the folks in that area, let's hope that's the case. We don't need Delta getting out of hand.
 
As bad at that would be for the folks in that area, let's hope that's the case. We don't need Delta getting out of hand.
It's either that, a bunch of highly unusual circumstances coming together simultaneously at the same place or all the data and studies leading up to this point are wrong.
 
It's either that, a bunch of highly unusual circumstances coming together simultaneously at the same place or all the data and studies leading up to this point are wrong.
This looks reasonably consistent with the data and studies regarding the Delta variant to this point though.

The article outlines 22 cases, where 11 have had two doses, and 8 one dose (with the other 3 presumably unvaccinated).

Of those, one is in ICU - and the article doesn't say who - and the majority have experienced mild symptoms. In the twitter thread linked from the article, it's indicated that cases were identified through broad testing, so it's possible some of those are asymptomatic and have no symptoms at all.

We also don't know how many people were potentially exposed and weren't infected. It's likely the numbers infected represent a small proportion of those exposed, with vaccination having protected others.

The data and studies regarding vaccine effectiveness in the UK are indicating that one dose offers around 33% effectiveness against symptomatic disease, and two doses around 80% effectiveness. Note that's the effectiveness against symptomatic disease; we know it's possible to have COVID-19 asymptomatically. The data also indicates the Delta variant is more transmissible.

So if you have an infectious patient carrying the Delta variant into a hospital and exposing a number of people to infection, you'd expect vaccination to reduce the numbers infected symptomatically, but not to eliminate infection.

And while, if all numbers were equal, you'd expect most of those infected to be unvaccinated, with fewer have had one dose and even fewer having had two doses, the numbers won't have been equal here. In this situation (a hospital in a nation with good vaccination uptake) where it may well be the case that most have had two vaccinations, some have had one, and fewest are unvaccinated, you'd expect most of those infected to have had two doses, because even though they're less likely individually to be infected, they're also the largest group. That is, if everyone exposed has had two vaccinations, everyone infected will have had two vaccinations; but it'll be fewer infected people than if they'd all been unvaccinated, and they'll have milder symptoms overall.

So, from the data, this is basically the outcome we'd expect if an infectious patient went into a hospital and exposed a fairly large number of people to the Delta variant, where most of those people have had two dose, some one, and a few none.
 

There is a bit of a concern up here about the Delta variant. Of the people infected by this most were mild symptoms.

the one issue is, up here. Is that we are sitting about 70% first dose and 20% second dose (got my second one yesterday) but it looks as though there is a huge number of people that do not even want the first vaccine. A lot of anti vax conspiracy idiots up in these parts.

this is troubling because we are opening up fully here, but the carelessness of those anti Vaxxers could lead to the spread of Thai Delta variant.
 
There is a bit of a concern up here about the Delta variant. Of the people infected by this most were mild symptoms.

the one issue is, up here. Is that we are sitting about 70% first dose and 20% second dose (got my second one yesterday) but it looks as though there is a huge number of people that do not even want the first vaccine. A lot of anti vax conspiracy idiots up in these parts.

this is troubling because we are opening up fully here, but the carelessness of those anti Vaxxers could lead to the spread of Thai Delta variant.
The most dangerous man in the world. The scary part is he has the Kennedy family fortune to help spread his lies. It's also scary because a lot of people are easily influenced with lies. Knowing the truth like many of us here may not make the critical difference. His influence is that widespread.

 
Damn, sorry @Arathrael - that sucks.


It is what it is really. The delay is mainly just in lifting social distancing and allowing things like nightclubs to reopen. Bars and restaurants and places that can operate with the reduced capacity necessary for social distancing are already open.

Meanwhile second doses for some are being brought forward (so mine will now be in two weeks, instead of next month), so that's something.

And on another note, there's some overall reassuring data in terms of how effective the vaccines are in preventing hospitalisation (the previous ones we'd seen were effectiveness in terms of preventing symptomatic illness). https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ve-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

The analysis suggests:​
  • the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 96% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses
  • the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 92% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses
These are comparable with vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation from the Alpha variant.​

The concern is that the case numbers are surging now under the current restrictions and no new ones are being introduced, so there is a question over whether just delaying further lifting will be enough. But the numbers in Bolton (one of the first places to be hit with a new wave) have started coming down after accelerated vaccinations and some serious surge testing, and that's also being done in other areas (including mine, since we're also starting to get hit now - case rate up tenfold in less than two weeks), so hopefully that'll be enough. And hopefully we don't get any more variants.
 
It is what it is really. The delay is mainly just in lifting social distancing and allowing things like nightclubs to reopen. Bars and restaurants and places that can operate with the reduced capacity necessary for social distancing are already open.

Meanwhile second doses for some are being brought forward (so mine will now be in two weeks, instead of next month), so that's something.

And on another note, there's some overall reassuring data in terms of how effective the vaccines are in preventing hospitalisation (the previous ones we'd seen were effectiveness in terms of preventing symptomatic illness). https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ve-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

The analysis suggests:​
  • the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 96% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses
  • the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 92% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses
These are comparable with vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation from the Alpha variant.​

The concern is that the case numbers are surging now under the current restrictions and no new ones are being introduced, so there is a question over whether just delaying further lifting will be enough. But the numbers in Bolton (one of the first places to be hit with a new wave) have started coming down after accelerated vaccinations and some serious surge testing, and that's also being done in other areas (including mine, since we're also starting to get hit now - case rate up tenfold in less than two weeks), so hopefully that'll be enough. And hopefully we don't get any more variants.

Understood. Maybe England will just keep winning and make things a bit more bearable.
 

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