COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (22 Viewers)

[Eeyore]

Gene common in south Asian people doubles risk of Covid death, study finds

Finding could partly explain excess deaths seen in some communities in the UK and in south Asia

www.theguardian.com

 

[Saint_Ward]

Not sure if this was posted, but a paper published based on the Israel study showing natural immunity is stronger than vaccine immunity.

Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections

Background Reports of waning vaccine-induced immunity against COVID-19 have begun to surface. With that, the comparable long-term protection conferred by previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 remains unclear. Methods We conducted a retrospective observational study comparing three groups...

www.medrxiv.org

One thing I noticed off the bat.

They have 3 groups. Vaccinated only. Previously infected and survived only, and previously infected, survived and Vaccinated.

Yet their comparison is Vaccinated only vs previously infected. Is that including or excluding the infected and later Vaccinated?

Two other points with that. All studies regarding natural immunity always will be biased towards better results. Why? Because the ones that died, presuming having bad antibody responses are removed from the data set. Dead men tell no tales. Whereas Vaccinated will include folks with weaker immune systems.

It may point to previously infected may be as good as Vaccinated (in terms of policy), but the paper was very light on info.

Secondly, time. If they found people infected around the same time as those vaccinated, then cool. If not, a longer time period usually yields a much larger booster response. It's why so many of our regular Vaccines have pretty long booster intervals. So, there may be more time spread in those infected.

Lastly, this was just the Pfizer vaccine, right? Which seemingly has been showing a quicker fading response. Would be curious about Moderna.

Also, I believe this looked at people getting infected. Not lab antibody responses. So, behavior may be a hidden variable.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Gene common in south Asian people doubles risk of Covid death, study finds

Finding could partly explain excess deaths seen in some communities in the UK and in south Asia

www.theguardian.com

OK 23 and me, time to send me an update..lol

 

[superchuck500]

So the school mask mandates are starting to come down in my area.

I just want to hear from the cry babies who insisted that this was just government control and they would never come down. I mean seriously, those people went to school board meetings quoting scripture and acting like the end times. Screaming. Crying. Pure tantrum.

Case numbers are finally way down and the mask rules are gone . . . just like the sensible adults in the room said would happen. It was literally about 75 days.

 

[WhoDatPhan78]

So the school mask mandates are starting to come down in my area.

I just want to hear from the cry babies who insisted that this was just government control and they would never come down. I mean seriously, those people went to school board meetings quoting scripture and acting like the end times. Screaming. Crying. Pure tantrum.

Case numbers are finally way down and the mask rules are gone . . . just like the sensible adults in the room said would happen. It was literally about 75 days.

Those people will expect you to thank them for saving your children from tyranny.

 

[kansast]

My take is that natural immunity is good. Vaccine immunity is good. Having both is even better. Bottom line, everyone will get the COVID virus at some point. When that happens, do you want some of the protection that a vaccine will give you. Or would you rather just test your luck without.

 

[SoggyBottomBoy]

A classmate and close friend of my daughter's father just died from COVID. He was 59. About four days ago my daughter shared a text from her friend (a bridesmaid at her wedding) saying it didn't look like he'd survive. She didn't want to want him to suffer any longer, but was also holding out for a miraculous turnaround. I don't know if he was vaccinated, but I have a guess. Fun guy. He'll be missed.

 

[nolaspe]

Bambi out there seeking revenge for his mom... I keed, but this is something pay attention to...

Although the virus doesn't seem to make the animals sick, Saif says, the new data from Iowa are "very concerning."

"Now the question is: Can the virus spill back from deer to humans? Or can deer transmit the virus effectively to grazing livestock? We don't know the answers to those questions yet, but if they are true, they're obviously concerning," she says.

Another concern, Saif says, is that SARS-CoV-2 could evolve inside the deer and create new strains of the virus. Researchers have already documented such a scenario with minks on farms in the Netherlands and Poland, she points out.

In those studies, farm workers passed the virus onto captive animals. As the virus spread through the minks, it mutated and created new variants. These new versions of the virus then spilled back to the humans, the researchers reported.

 

[Sailorsaint]

A 6 minute video that everyone, vaxxed, unvaxxed, needs to watch.

 

[gboudx]

Send that vid to Ted Cruz and see what insane reply he comes back with.

 

[nolaspe]

Send that vid to Ted Cruz and see what insane reply he comes back with.

Or better yet, put your name as Big Bird when sending it.

 

[bclemms]

So the school mask mandates are starting to come down in my area.

I just want to hear from the cry babies who insisted that this was just government control and they would never come down. I mean seriously, those people went to school board meetings quoting scripture and acting like the end times. Screaming. Crying. Pure tantrum.

Case numbers are finally way down and the mask rules are gone . . . just like the sensible adults in the room said would happen. It was literally about 75 days.

Careful what you wish for because I have a feeling they will not be down very long.

We are running about 1-2 weeks behind last year's trend for the fall surge. Your northern border states and Alaska have been the hotspots recently but the numbers there are beginning to decline. Alaska is plummeting. The northeast is climbing and the climb looks to have started in the states in the middle of the country and look to have bottomed out in the south.

I give it two weeks before we start seeing the fall surge run like crazy. Should get nice and saturated just before Thanksgiving and we will probably see record travel for Thanksgiving this year. Let's get this party started. If you haven't got a booster I'd prioritize it on your schedule.

 

[SoggyBottomBoy]

Careful what you wish for because I have a feeling they will not be down very long.

We are running about 1-2 weeks behind last year's trend for the fall surge. Your northern border states and Alaska have been the hotspots recently but the numbers there are beginning to decline. Alaska is plummeting. The northeast is climbing and the climb looks to have started in the states in the middle of the country and look to have bottomed out in the south.

I give it two weeks before we start seeing the fall surge run like crazy. Should get nice and saturated just before Thanksgiving and we will probably see record travel for Thanksgiving this year. Let's get this party started. If you haven't got a booster I'd prioritize it on your schedule.

The US is 58.5% vaccinated. That combined with those that have had COVID do you think the big spikes are over? Are we starting to reach a moderate level of saturation?

And thanks for reminding me about getting my booster.

 

[Mr. Sparkle]

The US is 58.5% vaccinated. That combined with those that have had COVID do you think the big spikes are over? Are we starting to reach a moderate level of saturation?

And thanks for reminding me about getting my booster.

We're on the verge of it being endemic, at least in the US, especially once the Pfizer antiviral gets approved. Once that happens, if you're vaxxed, COVID really is nothing more than you usually see during cold/flu season. Unvaxxed will still end up in the hospital or worse but at this point there's not much more to be done there IMO (outside of whatever push comes out of the OSHA/fed contractor mandates).

 

[bclemms]

The US is 58.5% vaccinated. That combined with those that have had COVID do you think the big spikes are over? Are we starting to reach a moderate level of saturation?

And thanks for reminding me about getting my booster.

No, spikes are never going to be over. It's endemic. I think we see occassional strands that pop up that are slightly more infectious than the last but the CFR is dropping like a rock as herd immunity levels continually increase and immunity levels seem to be lasting against severe disease. Getting children vaccinated should help accelerate this even more. Covid is over for 90% of the vaccinated. Severely immune compromised and fragile elderly still have higher than "acceptable" risk even with the vaccine. Covid will still cull off the unvaccinated at a high rate for the next few months until the newer treatments become widely available. This has also been going on long enough now that evolutionary progress is beginning to have an impact (aka Darwin), more so in certain states in the deep south that have already experienced a high rate of cull.

The recent Texas study really drives this home. People in the 30-50 age group are 200 times more likely to die from covid if unvaccinated. If this age group was dying at a 1% rate prior to vaccination you are now talking about a death rate of .005% for the vaccinated. For the under 30 crowd the death rate was already really low and is multiplied similarly with the vaccine to the point of a vaccinated death being static noise. Even the over 75 death rate is 10 times higher for unvaccinated so for the elderly population that have been vaccinated they have really good protection levels but Covid had such a high mortality rate in that group it's still going to be a considerable risk for vaccinated in that group, just way less than it was.

I've been saying it for months. Covid is over for the vaccinated keeping up with boosters, we are just too scared to realize it and probably wont feel comfortable accepting it until the spring.


With all that said, I still think this next wave is going to be huge. It's Delta and Delta+ which are both so extremely contagious. As fast as we are gaining immunity at this point we are losing it due to waning immunity due to the time gap between the first 3 waves and the initial vaccine rush. Getting boosters in arms is really important right now and I feel like this hasn't been handled with enough urgency. That said, they should all still all be protected against severe disease. Combine that with very little in the way of restrictions and it's going to spread like fire. We may even see case loads push up in that 250k range again but the death curve will really start to flatten out. Hospitalizations will likely still get really high due to fear of past outcomes and this is the year where I could see the healthcare system really getting overrun with the combination of Flu/Covid as the covid restrictions that prevented the flu last year aren't in place and it comes roaring back, some obvious places more than others.

At least that is my best guess working off the latest data available for so many of the important variables.