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While I agree with a lot here, I'd just say that there are logistical challenges that will become more acute the further east the Ukrainians advance because they'll have to go further to get the supplies and equipment to the front lines.Ukraine has chased Russia out of Kyiv, Cherniv, Sumy and now Kharkiv. I don't see the reason why they can't do the same in the east and south. Russia is coming to a point where it will have to either mobilize which will be politically unpopular or cease hostilities. On top of that, they're equipment losses are not so easily replaced, whereas Ukraine is being supplied by the West. Russia military industry was not on a wartime footing, and relied on imports especially from the West which are now under sanction, which has halted production. This could eventually be fixed by a combination of finding alternate suppliers and sanction evasion, but you're talking about a year long project minimum. Every tank they lose now cannot be replaced except through their stockpile, and its questionable how many of those can be brought back into service. Ukraine has destroyed nearly 1000 tanks and Russia has maybe 3000 in reserve. So at the current loss rate Russia will be out of tanks at the end of the year. In addition, they have to train new crews which takes time
I think the 7% GDP decline for Russia is too conservative. I've seen estimates more like 15%.
The economic issues in Ukraine are troubling but are by no means a death sentence. The West will essentially have to subsidize the entire war effort as well as significant portion of the Ukranian economy. I think this is doable as long as the alliance holds together.
And for all the talk of UKR success in thwarting Russian air dominance, the reality it seems to me that Russia still largely controls the skies where it really matters in the eastern regions. It's not like UKR can call in air support to clear space for the army to advance into presently Russian occupied territories. The drones are helping, but they're not a substitute for gunships that can do a lot of damage to infantry and equipment, especially at night when it's difficult to see.
I'm not sure if Russian ground to air defenses have been sufficiently taken out for gunships to operate effectively, so idk.
I don't know what UKR has that compares to AC-130 gunships, Apaches and A-10s, but I think having similar weapons, equipment and vehicles would make a big difference in an offensive campaign.
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