There is no gas shortage...

Yes, that's another part of it. Tanking dollar, geopolitical uncertainty.

All else being equal, as the dollar weakens oil prices will increase.

Yeah, I think you got it right. It is a multi faceted issue, but refining capacity, weak dollar and speculating is causing the price run. On CNBC this morning the expert was saying exactly that. And he said that $130 - $150 is not out of the question. "We are in uncharted waters" he said.