There is no gas shortage...

Yeah, I think you got it right. It is a multi faceted issue, but refining capacity, weak dollar and speculating is causing the price run. On CNBC this morning the expert was saying exactly that. And he said that $130 - $150 is not out of the question. "We are in uncharted waters" he said.

Our refineries are only running at 85% capacity. They've been like that for a few months now.

Even when refineries are switching over to summer gas blends they run at 90% capacity. Their margins have been dropping like a brick in recent months due partly to the sharp rise in oil. In response they've cut back on production to raise wholesale prices, and thus margins.