There is no gas shortage...

Not sure where you are getting your info, but refineries are not at 85% capacity. They run at 100% of their ability (other than turn-a-round times) all year long.

Sure, margins are not nearly what they were a year or two years ago, but the refineries will not scale back 15% of their business to TRY to affect wholesale prices. It just ain't gonna happen.

BTW, I work for an oil refinery in Southeast Louisiana.

U.S. Refinery Utilization and Capacity

The DOE shows that the "U.S. Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity" is running at 85.8% as of January (the last report). It has been dropping since July 2007. Though there is a small uptick in January.

I think there are some more recent reports. I'll track them down.