Al qaeda is happy too!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061110/ap_on_re_mi_ea/egypt_al_qaida
""The American people have put their feet on the right path by ... realizing their president's betrayal in supporting Israel,"
He urged Bush not to withdraw U.S. forces so al-Qaida could have more opportunities to fight U.S. soldiers. "We haven't had enough of your blood yet," he told the U.S.
"They are getting ready to leave, because they are no longer capable of staying," the al-Qaida leader said, referring to U.S. forces.
"Remain steadfast in the battlefield, you coward," he said, addressing Bush.
Well done my fellow Americans.
Hmm let's sit down and think rationally for a moment.
1.) The backbone of the insurgency are the Sunni Baathist remnants of Saddam's Iraq. Deep down these guys don't care for Al Queda or the Islamic fundamentalists. They like Armani suits, Mercedes, Cuban cigars, the ladies and all the finer things in life. No long term meeting of the minds with Al Queda there.
2.) the Iraqi Shia are more tilted toward Iran and are also natural enemies of Al Queda
3.) The Kurds in the North are not religious fanatics either and have a historic antipathy towards the Arabs that make up Al Queda. The Kurds have a defacto alliance with Israel.
Given the ironclad law that "the enemy of my enemy" is my friend, I tend to believe that tolerance for Al Queda in Iraq will last as long as our occupation of the country will last.
When they don't have us to shoot at, I am willing to believe that all three of the groups will turn on the jihadists. It is an alliance of convenience, just like we were allied with Soviet Communists in WWII.
The Kurds, Sunni Baathists and Shia will squeeze Al Queda out, even as they shoot at each other.
We have natural allies in the country on that front. An occupation by 150,000 troops in not necessary.
Now, all that being said, there is the Palestine model to consider. Palestinians in the early days of Arafat's Fatah were largely secular and socialist in leaning. They were aimed at modernizing and building a post-colonial Arab nation. They were not religious fundamentalists.
But after decades of humilation and carnage they were radicalized and the religious nuts found fertile ground. Hamas was a creation of the Israeli Mossad because Arafat was found to be getting too willing to negotiate. A more inveterate foe had to be created, so the Israelis funded Hamas:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10456.htm
If we stay in Iraq status quo, I don't rule out that something similar could take place. All the fears of Al Queda could become self fulfilling. If the carnage is allowed to continue for decades you will get a radicalized population in Iraq. Precisely what Al Queda wants.