For Drew Brees To Be Considered One Of The Best NFL QB Of All Time
At my last job interview, we got into that discussion about how to present a case for a player in today's league. My belief is that overwhelmingly, everyone has the big numbers now. The only way stats stand out anymore is if they look more akin to something from a video game than reality.
When it comes to HoF voting, they are going to look at stats, where they place all-time with those stats and then take a very subjective look at what they meant to their franchise(s). Then the "Did they get a ring?" question will pop up. Post-season records and whatnot are fun to argue over, but when it comes right down to it, one Super Bowl ring, just one, weighs far more than any amount of stats. Case and point, Joe Namath had modest statistics even by the standards of his era, but he's in the Hall. Why? He had a presence that was probably bigger than the game, and arguably saved the AFL with what he accomplished in Super Bowl 3. Seriously, if the Jets do not win the Super Bowl that year, then everything that succeeded it with the merger of the NFL/AFL may have been completely different. But the point is, the stats, even judged by his contemporaries, were not that impressive.
Drew Brees, lets face it, he's going to get a "Katrina double bonus" when his name comes up for debate. Now stop for a second and put yourselves in the shoes of some sports writer that votes on these things from up in Washington state or something, and look at it externally for a minute without the black and gold glasses. He came in with a busted shoulder, and immediately took a beleaguered franchise with a terrible history, who was recently on the verge of relocating after a hurricane, and got them a division title and an NFC title game appearance. All in his first season with them. Then with perseverance and a refusal to quit, was able to help will the team into it's first Super Bowl appearance ever, and won it against all odds against a sure-fire Hall of Famer in Peyton Manning who had already been there and done that.
Right now, as it stands, all Drew needs to do is remain consistent and he'll be getting fitted for a yellow jacket. Assuming all he does is put up consistent numbers (ex: ~28 TD, less than 15 INTs per year), then he will get in. Probably as a second or third ballot, but he will get in for everything he did off the field in addition to what he meant to the Saints. Now if he is consistent in getting the team into the postseason and manages to get one more Super Bowl ring? He'll be first ballot, no question about it.
The point of this is to not overstate the stats. That one ring was certainly enough to elevate Brees to HoF status, IF, he remains statistically consistent for another 5-6 years. Whether or not he is first ballot, or later depends on what other accolades he can rack up along the way.
The only way Brees fails to make it in the HoF is if, God forbid, something catastrophic occurs (serious enough injury, etc.) which would prevent him from playing, or if the franchise suddenly took a total nosedive (very unlikely) and made him look bad in the process.
The only time QBs need the absurdly freaky stats to get in the HoF is when they do not have a Super Bowl win. I think that has been proven ad nauseum with guys like Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, Jim Kelly and Warren Moon.