I'm not the political junkie you are, but I think Cheney and the neocons just got moved from the penthouse to the outhouse. I don't think they hold much sway anymore.
Then again, maybe Bush is just stubborn enough to stick with them.
I am referring more to the Neocon pundits/cheerleaders/lobbyists here. The same people that cheered on the Iraq intervention.
They are all about diverting attention from the Arab-Israeli conflict and protecting complete freedom of action for Israel, not just to defend themslves but to colonize at will in the midst of Arabs. "Pay no attention to the man behind that curtain!"
But if Gates comes in, under the influence of James Baker, and hints that the new approach to the region will be to put a solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict at the center, the Neocon spinmeisters will come out of the woodwork to undermine that approach.
From their perspective they are looking at this change and asking "what does this mean for Israel?" before they ask "what does this mean for America?"
A solution will mean that settlement stops and Israel gets defined permanent borders. That's not what the Israeli right wants...yet.
I'm skeptical that Baker will have much latitude in this area because Bush 43 seems to have swallowed gallons of the Likudnik kool-aid.