UFC 117: Silva v Sonnen (Sat., Aug 7 on PPV)

Prelims

Dennis Hallman vs. Ben Saunders
I have been a Saunders fan since his stint on TUF. He's a pretty exciting fighter that can really throw down some punishment with knees and other strikes. Hallman's a very crafty vet, the type of fighter that could neutralize Ben's office, but in the end I think Saunders takes it via mid-to-late TKO.

Christian Morecraft vs. Stefan Struve
Don't know anything about Morecraft, but Struve has shown some decent ability, though he can be outclassed by others in the division. 1st round RNC.

Charlie Brenneman vs. Johny Hendricks
The little I've seen of Hendricks has impressed me enough...decision victory.

Tim Boetsch vs. Todd Brown
Brown's probably the better fighter, and while Boetsch is solid, I think he loses to better fighters. Brown via armbar.

Phil Davis vs. Rodney Wallace
Davis is a a talented guy. Coming in as a late replacement always scares me in terms of picking that fighter (no stats to back that up, just in terms of undercard fights it seems a bad thing), but Davis is too talented. 2nd round TKO.

Dustin Hazelett vs. Rick Story
McLovin will earn some lovin' as is often the case, when he cinches up a triangle for submission of the night.

Main Card

Junior Dos Santos -330 vs. Roy Nelson +270
I'm actually surprised by this line as well. Nelson's been around, beaten some guys, and is a game opponent with name recognition. Honestly I would have expected +180 or less easily. That said, he's always lost to better opponents, and I have to believe JDS is the better opponent. He'll probably batter Nelson with his reach, and stuff a desperate take down attempt or two when Nelson feels in trouble, leading to a kill shot, and late KO.

Ricardo Almeida -180 vs. Matt Hughes +155
I'm not at all surprised at this line OTOH, I think they got it right. Hughes has an outside chance of controlling Almeida and winning with wrestling, but he would have to get him down and stay in top position with some Lay 'n Pray. Hughes was the best WW in the UFC for 5 years, but his time has passed and father time is knocking. Almeida via armbar in the 1st or early second.

Rafael dos Anjos -110 vs. Clay Guida -120
I'm not really a Clay Guida fan. To me he is one of the most overhyped fighters in terms of execution and excitement even. That said, I do think he will out of dos Anjos, and either bleed or sweat enough to avoid the submission in the first round, making him slippery and difficult to put away late, and dos Anjos isn't going to KO him. I think Guida takes a split decision, or razor thin unanimous decision.

Thiago Alves -115 vs. Jon Fitch -115
I'm legitimately torn on this fight. All things considered though, Fitch has beat Alves before (though it was a different version 4 years ago), has beaten solid opponents, and fought the last year while Alves has been off for over a year. I tend to side with the fighter who is active and with no rust...and while Alves is the more dangerous fighter, I just have a gut feeling that Fitch pulls off his standard unanimous decision win.

Middleweight Title Fight
Champ Anderson Silva -450 vs. Chael Sonnen +330
I hate Chael Sonnen. He's done his job selling his fight. The Sherdog prognosticator (Tomas Rios) got it right when he said, "A focused Silva puts Sonnen away in less than 10 minutes, a playful one humiliates him for the full 25."

If Chael took the first round by controlling Silva on the ground, it would only make Silva turn it on in the second round due to anger. If Chael never controls Silva, then it doesn't matter. Either way I see no chance to see Silva lose this fight, even though his lack of caring the last 2-3 fights has disappointed me. Silva via TKO, 2nd round.