Mike Smith blunder to elect to punt

First of all, this is only a good argument if "extending the game" is what you want. Extending the game isn't always the best option. Sometimes gambling gives you a higher percentage of winning than playing it safe.

Secondly, this isn't even true. The game isn't over if the Falcons fail. The stakes are essentially the same: stop the Saints from getting a first down (or two) or lose.

Let's look at the three possible outcomes:

1) Convert the first down. Ball at around midfield, you have 3 timeouts (with the 2 min warning), and a "clutch qb" at home. You're in the driver's seat. You have to get 15 yards for a pretty good look at a tie, and you have a decent shot at just winning outright.

2) Fail the conversion. Ball at around the ATL 43 for the Saints.
a) If you stop them, they have to convert a long field goal and risk giving you good field position, or punt and try to pin you deep. You'll get the ball anywhere from the 1-20 probably.
b) If you don't stop them, you're screwed.

3) Punt. Assuming a good punt, you'll probably put them around the 15.
a) If you stop them, they have to punt. You'll probably end up with the ball around the 30-50.
b) if you don't stop them, you're screwed.


b) is the crucial part. It almost doesn't matter if you punt - you have to stop them either way, and even if you get the ball back you're looking at (I think) 1:20 of time with no timeouts. the difference is just field position.

You are 100 % correct.

Ryan has been clutch all year long in the 4th quarter and you take the ball out of his hands?

Mike Smith will have these guys one and done in the playoffs. He ain't ready for the big stage.