I don't think going for the big play a few times on third is establishing a tendency. Doing this a couple or few times during a game introduces an element of uncertainty into the situation and defenses can't overlook the possibility they may not get what they expect.... the first down play. I love the strategy. It's third and short .... what's it going to be? Long ball? Short pass? Run? Defenses don't know and can't play too tight. In this playoff stretch it will be impossible for defensive coordinators to predict what the Saints will do in this situation and they will have to prepare for all possibilities precisely because Payton is not displaying any tendencies.