Trailing the Saints by 3 points with 2:52 left to play Monday night, the Falcons faced a 4th and 6 from their 43-yard line. With two timeouts and the two-minute warning in their pocket, they chose to punt, hoping to make a stop and get the ball back with enough time to tie or win in a final drive. Did Coach Mike Smith make the right call?
A punt in this situation typically nets 37 yards, which would give the Saints a first down at their 20. This would give the Falcons a 0.15 Win Probability (WP).
Fourth-and-6 attempts outside the red zone are successful about 44 percent of the time. A success gives the Falcons a first down at (at least) their 49-yard line, worth 0.37 WP. A failure, giving the Saints the ball at Atlanta’s 43, would mean a 0.12 WP for the Falcons. All would not be lost. A stop or even allowing a field goal still gives the Falcons time for a touchdown drive, which when all four downs are available, are successful more often than many realize.
In total, the fourth-down conversion attempt would be worth 0.23 WP.