Was Mike Smith's decision to punt the right one?

Sophandros said

Here's why it was a bad call: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/12/should-falcons-have-punted.html

The thought process leading to the decision, not the outcome, determines whether or not it was a good or poor decision. In this case, it was a poor decision. Heck, they beat us in the first game primarily because they went for it and converted on 4th downs.

Granted, I'm happy that Smith chose poorly, but still...

Click to expand...

I don't know if it was a "poor" decision. I'm of the opinion that either of the calls would be defensible. Your link says, "the conversion attempt would have been the percentage play, by a margin of 0.23 to 0.15." As the linked piece acknowledges, this conclusion is based upon pure statistical evaluations and not "game specific" considerations. I think such game specific considerations tend to narrow the numbers even more.

A 4th and 6 has a 44% conversion rate. At the risk of stating the obvious, a less than 50/50 conversion number isn't exactly the highest percentage play out there. If Atlanta gets a 3 and out, they're still going to have plenty of time (using two time outs and 2:00 warning) and good field position. It ended up not working out for Atlanta, but their strategy wasn't unsound there.

I honestly think the better play would have been to go for it there, but I don't think it was exactly an indefensible call.