Was Mike Smith's decision to punt the right one?

King Puppy said
I don't know if it was a "poor" decision. I'm of the opinion that either of the calls would be defensible. Your link says, "the conversion attempt would have been the percentage play, by a margin of 0.23 to 0.15." As the linked piece acknowledges, this conclusion is based upon pure statistical evaluations and not "game specific" considerations. I think such game specific considerations tend to narrow the numbers even more.

A 4th and 6 has a 44% conversion rate. At the risk of stating the obvious, a less than 50/50 conversion number isn't exactly the highest percentage play out there. If Atlanta gets a 3 and out, they're still going to have plenty of time (using two time outs and 2:00 warning) and good field position. It ended up not working out for Atlanta, but their strategy wasn't unsound there.

I honestly think the better play would have been to go for it there, but I don't think it was exactly an indefensible call.

It was indefensible when you consider your game situation angle, as the Saints had just gone 92 yards on you. Plus, the Falcons lead the league on first downs by penalty, and the flags had been flying in their favor all night. And then there's the concept that regardless, they have to make the Saints go three and out in order to still have a chance. If your qb is supposed to be "the man", then put it in his hands first, and then trust your defense if he fails.