The One Single Factor that will Put Us Back in the SB, or end it early
In the playoffs last year we had 8 forced turnovers to our one turnover. It's that simple. If we hit close to those numbers again we will be playing the Pats in the SB, regardless of who we play where on the way. If we get near 50-50 it will be an early playoff exit. It's that simple.
I know that people argue that the Saints are -5 right now with an 11-4 record going into the last game in which the team is favored to win. However
Teams the Saints lost to:
Atlanta (+13)
Arizona (-3)
Cleveland (+2)
Baltimore (+4)
Team the Saints defeated:
Minnesota (-12)
San Fransisco (-3)
Carolina (-7)
Tampa Bay (+8)
Pittsburgh (+14)
Seattle (-9)
Dallas (-3)
Cincinnati (-5)
St. Louis (+5)
Now to explain the anomalies of the three teams with positive turnover ratios that the Saints defeated:
Tampa Bay was simply overwhelmed by big plays. Every defense the Saints might face from here on out will be much, much better and will try to prevent the Saints from making big plays as we have seen all year. Tampa Bay's Safeties are the worst tandem the Saints played this year (by far) and it showed.
Against Pittsburgh the Saints were +1 for the game. The Steelers recovered one of their own fumbles, but the Saints recovered the other fumble (by Heath Miller) at mid-field setting up the last TD and an interception to end the game.
Against St. Louis the Saints were +1 for the game again.
NFC Playoff Teams:
Atlanta (+13)
Philadelphia (+12)
Green Bay (+10)
St. Louis (+5)
Chicago (+4)
I don't think that the Saints have to match a +7 ratio turnover differential last season because this year's defense is very good when focused. Last year those turnovers compensated for poor defense. This year for the most part we have seen a very aggressive and sound defense that truly does rank among the league's best.
We saw what happened at Baltimore, but the games against Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Cincinatti, etc. (that have very good running games) the Saints defense showed that they're capable of shutting some very good runningames down. Outside of the Baltimore game, a couple plays at the end of the game in the first Atlanta game when the defense was gassed, one play against Pittsburgh and one play against Atlanta the second go around the run defense has been outstanding. I fully expect the intensity to be high each week of the playoffs and they will use the Baltimore game as a reminder to what can happen when they play sloppy and without focus.
If they do this and keep the turnover ratio no worse than even, I don't see anyone defeating the Saints.