Brees 70%+ loss rate when he has more than 40 attempted throws
Pat Kirwan said that the Saints have won their last 23 games when they rush for 150+ yards. Telling stat indeed...
However...
WHen we try to run, and cant because our oline isn't creating any lanes, then we must throw the ball
Last week is a prime example. we ran the ball 20-something times for 50-something yards. Do we continue to run it even though its obvious its not working?
KEep in mind that we have a defense that gives up alot of points so the offense can't be as patient as say... Baltimore... because we don't have their defense.
That's the crux of the issue... Perhaps the Saints need to consider the formation, personnel package, and down and distance tendancies they are running out of. How many times do they line up heavy and throw? How many times do the run out of passing formations? When they run out of passing formations, how many times is it a Daren Sproles draw? When you see a Sproles in the shotgun, do you think "it is probably a draw if it's going to be a run"? When you see the heavy formation with Ingram or Ivory in the backfield, do you believe it will be a run between the tackles?
My point is that the Saints have made it obvious when they are going to run the ball this year. And in years past, they've run right into obvious run blitzes. As good as he was at "self scouting" and breaking tendancies in 2009, we haven't seen much of that this year. Nor have we seen those great half-time adjustments where they disected what the opponent was doing and came out in the second half to exploit it. Nor have we seen the kind of games like the Jets and Bills match-ups of '09 where the Saints made a full committment to the run in order to win against a defense that was holding Drew in check because that was what was needed.
Sure, Drew can throw for 300+ yards all day, and sure, the Saints can run well when they have a big lead (which is why they are ranked 11th in rushing offense). But the question, and the reason for pointing out the stat, is can the Saints run CONSISTENTLY when they NEED to on 3rd and short, in goaline, or when playing against an offense that has Drew's number in a particular game? Can they depend on the running game, or bank on it?
The answer is no, and it has more to do with mentality, philosophy, and committment. I think Payton tries to be too fancy in breaking tendancies that aren't there by using the wrong personnel in the wrong packages at the wrong times to run the ball and abandons it too quick when that doesn't work. Just look at how well the Fortyniners look with the same personnel under Harbaugh. They've made a committment to kick the other guys backside on the line of scrimmage; they've made it a focal point. The Saints have the same talent on BOTH the offensive and defensive lines, but the priority is letting Drew pass the Saints to a lead before turning it over to the run game and letting a defense be efficient once the opponent is one dimensional.