The Atlanta Falcons may be close to being out of the race for the NFC South crown but they are still on course for a playoff berth after a late win against Carolina last week. Led by quarterback Matt Ryan (+22.2) they (along with Detroit), have a one-game lead in the battle for a wild card spot.
Their opponents on Thursday night, the Jacksonville Jaguars, come into this game off the back of their win under interim head coach Mel Tucker*over the seemingly tackle-allergic Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The defense has performed well all year but the offense, and in particular rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert (-42.0), has continued to struggle.
In the opening game of the week Atlanta need a win to keep pace in the race for the playoffs, while the Jaguars players will want to continue to win under Tucker and give fans some hope heading into next season. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the three areas to focus on this week.
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Atlanta’s Pass Rush vs. Jacksonville’s Offensive Line
This year in Atlanta,*Ray Edwards (+5.2) hasn’t looked anywhere near the pass rusher he did in Minnesota and it shows in his -2.0 pass-rushing grade with only two games where he has made a genuine impact as a pass rusher. Thankfully for the Falcons, John Abraham (+25.5) has been as good as always, currently sitting as our fourth-highest-graded pass rushing 4-3 defensive end. That rating is buoyed by a dominant performance in Week 13 in Houston where he registered a sack and five pressures on just 22 pass rushes.
Eugene Monroe (+10.2) is finally starting to look like a first round draft pick, after a disappointing first two seasons in the league. The former eighth overall pick in the 2009 draft has just three games this year where he has allowed at least three total pressures, but has the same number of games where he has been perfect in pass protection. He’s not an elite left tackle yet but it’s definitely a step in the right direction. By contrast, right tackle Guy Whimper (-10.3) has struggled mightily all year, with just four games all year where he has allowed less than three total pressures.
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Falcon Receivers vs. Jaguar Corners
There’s an awful lot to like about the weapons Ryan has at his disposal in the Atlanta offense. Roddy White (+7.4 receiving) looks certain to top 1,000 receiving yards again with a steady 12.9 yards per catch average and, while he has dropped 12 passes through 14 games, he has added six touchdowns. Opposite White, Julio Jones (-3.5 receiving) has been explosive when healthy, averaging 18.1 yards per catch and catching four touchdowns. One of those touchdowns clinched the game against Carolina on Sunday. With 4:28 left in the fourth quarter, Jones got by Darius Butler to reel in a Ryan pass at the 45-yard-line, more impressive was how he kept his balance after an attempted touchdown-saving tackle at his shoelaces before racing to the endzone.
That’s not good news for a Jaguars secondary starting Ashton Youboty (-1.4) and Kevin Rutland (-3.0) due to injuries. Youboty has struggled since getting onto the field for the Jaguars in Week 11, giving up 245 yards and four touchdowns in just four games, with his Week 13 two-touchdowns-allowed performance on Monday Night Football being the low point thus far. Rutland may have given up just four receptions in his first two starts but he is also allowing 14.2 yards per catch. They’ll have their hands full with the talented Atlanta duo on Thursday night.
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The Jacksonville Linebackers
There hasn’t been much for Jaguars fans to smile about this year, even the usual excitement of a rookie quarterback has passed, but the play of Paul Posluszny (+18.7) and Daryl Smith (+23.3) has been a big plus in an otherwise drab year. Smith trails only Kamerion Wimbley (+31.3) and the ridiculous Von Miller (+57.1) amongst 4-3 outside linebackers in terms of his PFF grade. In Khaled Elsayed’s article earlier in the year, he highlighted just how good Smith has been in coverage and he’s still our highest-rated OLB in that regard, despite not breaking up a pass since Week 5. In the middle of the defense, Posluszny–our highest-rated inside linebacker in coverage–has proved to be a fantastic free agent pick-up, strengthening the Jaguars’ defense while missing just five tackles.