My case against Jarvis Jones

What does Jarvis Jones, Nick Fairley, Antonio Coleman, Carlos Dunlap, Marcus Howard, Jamaal Anderson, Willie Evans, and David Pollack all have in common?

Answer: They're the last 8 SEC sack leaders. Not a single Pro Bowler or impact player on that list. 2004 NCAA Division I-A College Football Individual Statistics Leaders for Defense - ESPN

Wait, it gets better. Here are the names that sit on the list of top SEC sack performances of the past decade:

Willie Evans
Jarvis Jones
Jamaal Anderson
Jadeveon Clowney
Demontre Moore
Nick Fairley
Quentin Moses
Derrick Harvey
Marcus Howard
Jake Bequette
Jouston Houston
Antonio Coleman
Wallace Gilberry
Greg Hardy
Chris Smith
Corey Lemonier
Courtney Upshaw
Carlos Dunlap
Quentin Groves
Charles Johnson
Sam Montgomery
Melvin Ingram
Carlos Dunlap
Eric Norwood
Jeremy Jarmon
Melvin Oliver

Southeastern Conference Single Season Leaders and Records for Sacks | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

There is one guy on this list, Charles Johnson, who I would deem an "impact player." Clowney should be one also, but he also has the athletic freak measureables that are necessary for the NFL game. Unfortunately, the athletic freak that also has the production a la Julius Peppers or Mario Williams or J.J. Watt, does not exist in this draft.

So no, Jones' stats do not speak for themselves. There is a reason why athletic freaks like Jordan, Mingo, and Ansah, who don't have outstanding production, are all projected to go ahead of Jones. It's because they're better NFL prospects and their games are projected to translate better to the NFL game.

There aren't any 245 pound pass rushing specialists out there that run a 4.92. And that's all Jones would be at this level, a pass rush specialist, because he darn sure isn't going to be covering anybody. James Harrison, who is slow, but not 4.92 slow, is the exception, not the rule.

We should not ignore a guy's workout #s. You can get away with not being an exceptional athlete at the college level, but you typically cannot at the NFL level.

Danny Weurfell and Troy Davis both produced in college, but neither was a great athlete and failed in the NFL. The same principle can apply to Jones. He lacks explosion, lacks pass rush moves, and quite frankly, fell into a lot of his sacks and/or had easy paths to the QB on playaction zone read plays.

I think he could potentially be a decent player, but I think any chance of him being a blue chip prospect has gone out the window. If NFL scouts truly thought his game would translate perfectly from the college game to the pro game, he'd be a top 3 pick.

In most cases, to be a successful NFL player, you have to also be an exceptional athlete, and Jarvis Jones just isn't that.

Is there a chance Jones can beat the odds and be a success? Yes. But this would be a very risky pick IMHO. Between Jones' bad workout, the 4.92 speed, the reported laziness, the high bust rate of SEC sack leaders, and the spinal stenosis, I just think it is too much of a risk. I'd rather let someone else roll the dice on him.

History says at least 5 of the top 15 picks will be busts. It's about time we start trying to identify which ones have the "best" opportunity of being one of those 5. Personally, I think Jones fits the bill.

EDIT: Fairley and Dunlap have both been somewhat solid, but they're also freak athletes. Dunlap is 6-6 280 and ran a 4.7. Fairley is 6-4 298 pounds and notably ran a 4.84, which despite being nearly 300 pounds, is also faster than Jones' time.