NHC isn't predicting a hurricane. The National Hurricane Update, whoever the hell that is, is simply stating that conditions will be favorable and a single model is showing a storm forming. They fail to mention that the model is not one of the better models and the other dozen or so models don't form a storm.
That facebook page is just some guys posting an outlier model painting a picture of a hurricane in the middle of the gulf on 4th of July while pushing their hurricane app.
In case you wondered why the NHC would never post something like that on Facebook, read the comments and you will understand.