It's that time of year again! (Hurricane Season Thread)

The same CMC model is showing a very weak storm or depression forming over the northern gulf and hitting south La later this week followed by a strong storm or weak hurricane taking a similar path to Hurrican Charlie hitting the west coast of Florida. I wouldn't put much stock into either of these happening, it is the only model showing this.

The NHC has a 40% chance of development for a wave a pretty good ways out in the Atlantic that will certainly be worth keeping an eye on but most of the models keep development (if any) very slow and weak.

The bigger story is the long range models starting to indicate a wide scale pattern shift. The GFS has the Bermuda high strengthening towards the end of the week and building over west Africa which will start the training of tropical waves being ejected off the coast of Africa. This is the type of setup where we usually see the tropics getting really busy. The GFS also shows multiple depressions or weak storms way out in the Atlantic towards the end of the week with favorable conditions for development. This is a long way out but a pretty good indicator that things will be getting busy in and around the gulf in couple weeks.