It's that time of year again! (Hurricane Season Thread)

efil4stnias said
For me, the main component is that Bermuda high and how far back West it digs. The further West, the further West storms will track since they cannot plow thru High Pressure system. Is that a correct assumption?

Is there any component to models that strictly show the movement of the high over a period of a week or two?

Without complicating things too much, you are correct. The main thing that eats away at the eastern side of the high pressure along the Atlantic coast are low pressure systems along the jet stream which tends to run through Canada this time of the year. As a low approaches it pushes the high pressure farther east as it pushes away the high builds back in.

The GFS model is your best bet for long term trends with the high pressure.
Current run
gfs 2013070806 Forecast slp Java Animation

I get the model off the FSU tropical model page here but it can be found other places.
Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields

Just remember when looking at the models it goes almost two weeks out and don't put any stock in a single run because they constantly change. You want to start seeing consistency from run to run before putting much faith in it and before putting a lot of faith in it you want to see other major models looking similar. The GFS was showing the bermuda high building in and extending over the gulf a few days ago. Yesterday it was showing it retreating off the East coast and now it brings it right along the Florida coast. Just subtle details can shift things a thousand miles when looking a week or more out.

Right now I'd say the official forecast is really solid through through late Wednesday or early Thursday and then the models become less consistent. After Thursday the general path is pretty easy to predict but where, when and how dramatic it makes the turn to the north probably wont be more clear for another day or two.