They still would have been in FG range had we accepted it, and given a chance to convert a third and 15+ and maintain possession for a potential TD. 100% the right call.
This. It was a no brainer. Bailey has been good between 40-50 yards over the last two seasons at a remarkable rate of 92.9%. The penalty would have made it a 47 yard FG giving him a 7% chance of missing if we accepted the penalty and stopped the Cowboys on 3rd and 16 for little or no gain. Meanwhile, 3rd and 16 and the Cowboys run about a 15% success rate in getting the first down. There is also about a 50% chance they will get 10 yards leaving them in the exact same situation. So really there was a 15% chance of them getting a first and only 7% chance of them missing and that is if we stopped them for no gain.