Decline penalty let cowboys kick FG in 1st qtr ?

lapaz said

Good analysis, and I generally agree, but it doesn't account for the possibility of a negative play to take them completely out of field goal range. In a known passing down, we would've put a lot of pressure on, so it must be at least a 8% chance of a negative play.

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It also doesn't account for the possibility of a penalty giving them an automatic first down. Would you trust the refs in that situation to not throw a flag if we are playing Bryant physical one yard too far down the field? Besides, Bailey has been 70% from 50+ so even if we get the negative play chances are he still makes the FG from 53 yards (our average sack this season has been for -6 yards).